Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 1, 2020

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DAY 275 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/02/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.35°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.042 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 366 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.39 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.46 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 58 in SWE DAY: 182 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.98 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 26.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -11 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-07-02 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	275	-11	40.64	33.35	36.995	58.167534583333	0.38999999999999	0.45999999999999	2.67	3.13	F	F	8.64	365.64	182	450.97912828873	26.232344041096	0.042477912375192	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-10	38.45	38.45	38.45	58.96474	0.0106	0.0806	2.67	2.7506	F	F	6.45	363.45	183	451.8324402907	26.642182365307	0.026777278924614	91	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-07-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-10	45.94	36.87	41.405	59.330005333333	0.1251	0.1951	2.67	2.8651	F	F	13.94	370.94	183	451.96789512161	26.81525762806	0.11110372976828	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-10	45.55	38.53	42.04	59.150206666667	0.1611	0.2311	2.67	2.9011	F	F	13.55	370.55	183	451.90123437055	26.73005140594	0.1042727640867	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-01 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-10	44.94	35.71	40.325	59.358527666667	0.2171	0.2871	2.67	2.9571	F	F	12.94	369.94	183	451.97846704197	26.828776340648	0.094205447066688	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-07-01 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	41.01	36.3	38.655	60.064708	0.2684	0.2684	2.67	2.9384	F	F	9.01	360.01	182	451.68541050371	27.130352289765	0.045749388816907	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	41.04	37.21	39.125	61.007144	0.2708	0.3708	2.67	3.0408	F	F	9.04	372.04	182	452.0349985649	27.577364250489	0.046023256838228	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	41.88	38.14	40.01	60.959529333333	0.2911	0.3911	2.67	3.0611	F	F	9.88	372.88	182	452.017356402	27.554765296763	0.054238549613431	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	45.08	37.9	41.49	60.010352	0.2835	0.3835	2.67	3.0535	F	F	13.08	376.08	182	451.66522210392	27.104588964614	0.09645028808923	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	42.8	38.92	40.86	59.85488	0.3854	0.5554	2.67	3.2254	F	F	10.8	369.8	182	451.60746275011	27.030910490012	0.064518831367846	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	42.57	38.86	40.715	60.0477245	0.3918	0.6118	2.67	3.2818	F	F	10.57	368.57	182	451.67910294954	27.122302336321	0.061817233025279	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 23:58:49	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	46.45	38.79	42.62	60.291977333333	0.4652	0.7052	2.67	3.3752	F	F	14.45	381.45	182	451.76979058096	27.238093973592	0.12051039213809	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 19:53:57	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	40.96	38.92	39.94	61.541858666667	0.5461	0.7861	2.67	3.4561	T	F	8.96	371.96	182	452.23297432685	27.83125779043	0.045295845012304	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 16:03:04	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	41.97	38.75	40.36	61.478445333333	0.5354	0.8054	2.67	3.4754	T	F	9.97	372.97	182	452.20950986879	27.801137631682	0.055183381294752	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	49.93	39.11	44.52	59.501425333333	0.3276	0.5476	2.67	3.2176	F	F	17.93	386.93	182	451.47606601542	26.863469431803	0.19948506185323	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	49.84	37.69	43.765	59.241430666667	0.3217	0.6017	2.67	3.2717	F	F	17.84	387.84	182	451.37933769745	26.740357738569	0.19711626981426	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	50.31	39.13	44.72	58.859773	0.2476	0.5276	2.67	3.1976	F	F	18.31	388.31	182	451.23723016372	26.559720936585	0.20967361935389	91	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	51.7	39.64	45.67	58.242124	0.2298	0.4298	2.4	2.8298	F	F	19.7	389.7	182	451.00696085708	26.267603339101	0.24944943367185	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-06-28 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	52.15	39.1	45.625	59.433512	0.1721	0.4121	2.48	2.8921	F	F	20.15	404.15	182	451.45080572769	26.831306879627	0.26313495291879	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	52.15	39.45	45.8	59.366326666667	0.1448	0.3448	2.48	2.8248	F	F	20.15	404.15	182	451.4258119308	26.799492216849	0.26313495291879	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	53.13	40.14	46.635	58.063729333333	0.1069	0.2869	2.48	2.7669	F	F	21.13	406.13	182	450.9403852405	26.183280474073	0.2942085426617	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	53.13	40.57	46.85	58.006657333333	0.0869	0.2269	2.45	2.6769	F	F	21.13	399.13	182	450.9190800073	26.156308559045	0.2942085426617	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	57.81	40.81	49.31	57.573591083333	0.0415	0.1915	2.51	2.7015	F	F	25.81	406.81	182	450.75731376449	25.951717260498	0.46054610924958	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-27 23:54:33	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	56.76	39.34	48.05	60.290032	0.0219	0.1519	2.76	2.9119	F	F	24.76	416.76	182	451.76906852838	27.237171598186	0.42142893476052	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	56.79	39.57	48.18	61.277841333333	0.0146	0.1546	2.67	2.8246	F	F	24.79	416.79	182	452.13525667162	27.70587251953	0.42253775158852	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	57.33	40.8	49.065	61.117121333333	0.0103	0.1603	2.71	2.8703	F	F	25.33	418.33	182	452.07573915781	27.629567801964	0.44259310168837	91	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	59.34	41.17	50.255	60.036525333333	0.0096	0.1096	2.78	2.8896	F	F	27.34	418.34	182	451.6749435078	27.116994188338	0.51813094112896	91	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-27 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	59.37	41.17	50.27	59.621769333333	0.0096	0.1096	2.83	2.9396	F	F	27.37	416.37	182	451.5208171299	26.920470008117	0.51926020134399	91	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	60.59	40.98	50.785	59.681880333333	0.0078	0.1278	2.88	3.0078	F	F	28.59	419.59	182	451.54316488143	26.948945131788	0.56495181303796	91	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-06-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	64.3	42.49	53.395	59.985268	0.0203	0.0803	2.82	2.9003	F	F	32.3	421.3	182	451.65590469805	27.092700487095	0.69636803157775	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	64.3	42.49	53.395	62.12106	0.0203	0.0603	2.87	2.9303	F	F	32.3	437.3	182	452.44711792741	28.106494559596	0.69636803157775	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	63.73	43.68	53.705	61.955256	0.0218	0.0618	2.86	2.9218	F	F	31.73	439.73	182	452.38584868585	28.027681066109	0.67729174376739	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	61.18	44.26	52.72	59.503018666667	0.011	0.031	2.83	2.861	F	F	29.18	439.18	182	451.47665860164	26.864224044338	0.58677878687996	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	56.29	42.49	49.39	59.297909333333	0.0027	0.0327	2.9	2.9327	F	F	24.29	436.29	182	451.40035543064	26.76709734936	0.40414417491959	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-26 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	60.14	42.26	51.2	58.97986375	0.0026	0.0726	2.91	2.9826	F	F	28.14	437.14	182	451.28195996014	26.616548511282	0.54816629358808	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-25 23:54:09	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	58.89	41.4	50.145	63.14282863705	0.0107	0.0507	2.78	2.8307	F	F	26.89	440.89	182	452.82412124928	28.592595890766	0.50117965272907	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	58.9	41.4	50.15	65.019929333333	0.0107	0.0507	2.78	2.8307	F	F	26.9	439.9	182	453.51417287952	29.487459472292	0.50155648455916	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	57.08	40.47	48.775	64.907698666667	0.021	0.041	2.75	2.791	F	F	25.08	441.08	182	453.47300753759	29.433889326717	0.43328669233926	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	59.81	41.57	50.69	62.393852	0.0061	0.0261	2.7	2.7261	F	F	27.81	446.81	182	452.54786611141	28.236204581071	0.53580020341882	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	55.6	39.52	47.56	62.56392	0.0064	0.0164	2.69	2.7064	F	F	23.6	422.6	182	452.61064070861	28.317095916442	0.37911294384334	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-25 03:54:27	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	63.9	41.02	52.46	61.561716	0.0004	0.0104	2.68	2.6904	F	F	31.9	449.9	182	452.24032124063	27.840690219964	0.68303317072818	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-24 23:58:52	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	58.29	40.84	49.565	61.5094	0.0071	0.0471	2.79	2.8371	F	F	26.29	440.29	182	452.2209643119	27.815840182247	0.47857991304494	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-24 19:54:41	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	58.31	40.84	49.575	63.839696	0.0071	0.0471	2.72	2.7671	F	F	26.31	440.31	182	453.08068467657	28.924533173224	0.47933253229269	91	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-06-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	66.77	43.81	55.29	63.356114666667	0.001	0.031	2.71	2.741	F	F	34.77	455.77	182	452.90269431578	28.694155033913	0.77256751679862	91	4	1	3	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-06-24 11:54:16	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	60.6	43.06	51.83	61.832718666667	0.0009	0.0309	2.7	2.7309	F	F	28.6	450.6	182	452.3405511101	27.969446038316	0.56532361309021	91	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-06-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	47.48	43.05	45.265	61.628757333333	0.0009	0.0009	2.6	2.6009	F	F	15.48	434.48	182	452.26512278536	27.872537502469	0.14117887543254	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-06-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	275	-11	43.02	40.6	41.81	62.106299	0.0009	0.0309	2.61	2.6409	F	F	11.02	431.02	182	452.441664369	28.099477287359	0.067187648119176	91	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L