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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 23, 2020

[ Monday, June 22, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 24, 2020 ]

DAY 267 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/24/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 64.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.946
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 299

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 81 in
SWE DAY: 174
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-24 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020267-1972.1999455.9099464.0549481.318735005.455.45TF40.19994299.19994174455.0935659714 37.0076330914340.9463088835696990 5121118WETL
2020-06-23 12:00:02FORECAST2020267-1874.5356.5765.5582.4991093333330.00640.00645.455.4564TF42.53301.53175456.0610932218437.6246339923880.96668513220388905121118WETL
2020-06-23 08:00:01FORECAST2020267-1874.0856.2565.16581.8032026666670.00590.00595.455.4559TF42.08301.08175455.8101566413737.2867306212590.96334242600389905121118WETL
2020-06-23 04:00:04FORECAST2020267-1869.8255.662.7181.231008250.01220.01225.455.4622TF37.82296.82175455.6034968425937.0091314107490.91643076334173905121118WETL
2020-06-22 23:54:47FORECAST2020267-1975.1655.1265.1481.8567586666670.00850.01855.455.4685TF43.16306.16174455.2885891164837.2684481629950.9709405211463905121118WETL
2020-06-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020267-1975.2154.2164.7183.8621160.00850.01855.455.4685TF43.21306.21174456.0131488086738.2422275829180.97125802450928905121118WETL
2020-06-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020267-1975.1654.2464.783.8490506666670.01310.02315.455.4731TF43.16306.16174456.0084400810638.2358747967840.9709405211463905121118WETL
2020-06-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020267-1974.8155.8865.34581.564640.00290.01295.455.4629TF42.81305.81174455.1827348341737.1268159009650.96863571049527905121118WETL
2020-06-22 08:00:03FORECAST2020267-1974.4755.0864.77581.3179840.0080.0185.455.468TF42.47300.47174455.0932935621637.0072691643950.96625444847223905121118WETL
2020-06-22 04:00:02FORECAST2020267-1974.5455.6565.09580.73769050.00110.01115.455.4611TF42.54306.54174454.8826490601436.7261745336380.96675647209786905121118WETL
2020-06-21 23:54:24FORECAST2020267-1974.4555.3564.981.5998280.00380.03385.455.4838TF42.45315.45174455.1954899793737.1438736886930.96610987614495905121118WETL
2020-06-21 20:00:02FORECAST2020267-1974.6255.2664.9482.6468960.00350.03355.455.4835TF42.62315.62174455.5745159040337.6518196361710.96732268580813905121118WETL
2020-06-21 16:02:49FORECAST2020267-1974.5655.1564.85582.6107613333330.00170.02175.455.4717TF42.56315.56174455.5614523793737.6342784151790.96689877550753905121118WETL
2020-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020267-1973.5254.8764.19581.3675866666670.00780.02785.455.4778TF41.52313.52174455.1112847561537.0313069053740.95880588332897905121118WETL
2020-06-21 08:00:01FORECAST2020267-1973.4154.7964.181.2972306666670.00860.03865.455.4886TF41.41308.41174455.0857655271936.997212453180.95786354311525905121118WETL
2020-06-21 04:00:04FORECAST2020267-1973.354.7764.03581.235740.00290.05295.455.5029TF41.3314.3174455.0634581592636.9674167705270.95690388879105905121118WETL
2020-06-20 23:58:54FORECAST2020267-1971.9854.2163.09583.7590373333330.0010.0815.345.421TF39.98314.98174455.975995156238.1921104013920.9439622422807905121118WETL
2020-06-20 20:00:04FORECAST2020267-1971.2853.6562.46584.8838413333330.00120.08125.345.4212TF39.28315.28174456.3808936712238.7393633659530.93595428221511905121118WETL
2020-06-20 15:58:54FORECAST2020267-1970.2953.7962.0484.8155080.00080.06085.345.4008TF38.29315.29174456.3563285398838.7060938341250.92315007961375905121118WETL
2020-06-20 11:54:44FORECAST2020267-1969.6152.3560.9883.6560826666670.00160.07165.345.4116TF37.61312.61174455.9388764869938.1420603423430.91329008376118905121118WETL
2020-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2020267-1966.851.7459.2783.4785253333330.00370.08375.475.5537TF34.8306.8174455.8748382017238.0557592296510.86251754441201905121124WETL
2020-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2020267-1971.6352.3161.9782.3291296666670.0020.0725.435.502TF39.63315.63174455.4595948644237.497592043520.94006259059201905121118WETL
2020-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2020267-1970.8252.0661.4482.5996493333330.00120.08125.435.5112TF38.82300.82174455.5574348911837.6288843732050.93022698952406905121118WETL
2020-06-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020267-1970.8550.6660.75584.9080786666670.00120.09125.695.7812TF38.85313.85174456.3896057192638.751164545060.930612096196239051221116WETL
2020-06-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020267-1971.8350.4561.1484.8661493333330.00180.09185.595.6818TF39.83314.83174456.3745339880138.7307493533570.942316106022929051221116WETL
2020-06-19 12:00:03FORECAST2020267-1970.1350.6860.40582.9152053333330.00120.08125.655.7312TF38.13309.13174455.6714784896137.782094203510.9209102019184905121118WETL
2020-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2020267-1970.1650.760.4382.2718333333330.00120.09125.515.6012TF38.16308.16174455.4388636210737.4697902813550.92133388972879051221116WETL
2020-06-19 04:00:04FORECAST2020267-1969.7550.4660.10582.3394717272730.00120.08125.465.5412TF37.75308.75174455.4633365586237.5026105233780.91539347828103905121118WETL
2020-06-18 23:58:55FORECAST2020267-1971.3751.8161.5982.0316106666670.00140.06145.425.4814TF39.37323.37174455.3519122154337.3532507791790.9370309825247905121118WETL
2020-06-18 20:00:03FORECAST2020267-1971.5650.260.8884.3921920.00090.05095.665.7109TF39.56321.56174456.2040557308638.5000602624180.93925782353653905121118WETL
2020-06-18 16:00:04FORECAST2020267-1971.5651.0261.2984.0931653333330.00090.05095.615.6609TF39.56324.56174456.0963928501938.3545893718880.93925782353653905121118WETL
2020-06-18 11:54:50FORECAST2020267-1974.3950.2362.3182.5618426666670.00050.13055.435.5605TF42.39317.39174455.5437652301637.6105326727130.965673108606879051221116WETL
2020-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2020267-1974.950.4662.6881.8100120.00050.12055.425.5405TF42.9319.9174455.271654926637.2457795528050.969242313548099051221116WETL
2020-06-18 04:00:04FORECAST2020267-1974.5850.862.6981.3763856666670.00030.13035.435.5603TF42.58323.58174455.1144759711737.0355711191130.967040578107339051221116WETL
2020-06-18 00:00:04FORECAST2020267-1973.3950.3761.8881.3021586666670.00180.37185.575.9418TF41.39319.39174455.0875531389136.9996004525250.957690354425069051221116WETL
2020-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2020267-1973.450.4261.9182.3563333333330.00180.39185.716.1018TF41.4332.4174455.469436773737.510792758080.957777020394159051221116WETL
2020-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2020267-1973.150.5161.80582.0251626666670.00180.44185.596.0318TF41.1339.1174455.3495775551437.3501231691580.955114027112059051221116WETL
2020-06-17 12:00:01FORECAST2020267-1974.0850.5962.33581.0753840.00020.06025.535.5902TF42.08339.08174455.0052683804836.889726855970.96334242600389905121118WETL
2020-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2020267-1974.0950.6362.3681.0892693333330.00020.06025.535.5902TF42.09328.09174455.0103080096936.8964534156410.96341957404302905121118WETL
2020-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2020267-1974.4750.7462.60580.8848550833330.00020.11025.535.6402TF42.47338.47174454.9360986755436.7974404135480.966254448472239051221116WETL
2020-06-17 00:02:43FORECAST2020267-1968.5244.6856.682.3345213333330.00150.54155.055.5915TF36.52313.52174455.4615455486737.500208338490.89556634835639051231124WETL
2020-06-16 19:54:41FORECAST2020267-1968.5244.7156.61583.8167360.00150.54155.165.7015TF36.52329.52174455.9967932497938.2201628366640.89556634835639051231124WETL
2020-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2020267-1969.9847.1358.55583.6931893333330.00150.61154.995.6015TF37.98333.98174455.9522558248638.160098473710.918765895367319051231124WETL
2020-06-16 12:00:03FORECAST2020267-1957.3645.2451.383.6902373333330.00090.62094.825.4409TF25.36322.36174455.9511914853338.1586634278230.57422110766503903123129WETL
2020-06-16 08:00:04FORECAST2020267-1948.2745.2446.75584.2349220876960.00030.62034.865.4803TF16.27308.27174456.1474417717838.4235442181480.24708448456454901123126WETL
2020-06-16 04:00:05FORECAST2020267-1948.9348.3948.6684.027047500.444.815.25TF16.93317.93174456.0725764523538.3224320450090.26747850460151902122125WETL