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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 21, 2020

[ Saturday, June 20, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, June 22, 2020 ]

DAY 265 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/22/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.187
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 260

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 88 in
SWE DAY: 172
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-22 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020265-2146.7200439.4399443.0799987.804942500.385.075.45TF14.72004259.72004172456.35536089166 40.0702562226590.1874874236365793 1122124WETL
2020-06-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020265-2055.2544.0549.6588.7019946666670.02140.40145.075.4714TF23.25268.25173457.2131321225940.5557168070680.49075906172154932122125WETL
2020-06-21 08:00:01FORECAST2020265-2050.4740.9945.7388.5800333333330.03450.41455.075.4845TF18.47263.47173457.1695431421140.4960933705130.3059714607914932122125WETL
2020-06-21 04:00:04FORECAST2020265-2055.643.0649.3388.5084293333330.04940.42945.075.4994TF23.6268.6173457.1439455807940.4610926025980.50490016137521933122126WETL
2020-06-20 23:58:54FORECAST2020265-2156.3744.1450.25590.8910693333330.07860.34865.075.4186TF24.37271.37172457.4605583031941.5790793220.5359639433109933122126WETL
2020-06-20 20:00:04FORECAST2020265-2157.142.6349.86591.9363880.07930.34935.075.4193TF25.1272.1172457.832945803342.0915073445550.56521586700817933122126WETL
2020-06-20 15:58:54FORECAST2020265-2157.542.9550.22591.8773480.06220.33225.075.4022TF25.5272.5172457.8119395487242.0625468884720.58110452747841933122126WETL
2020-06-20 11:54:44FORECAST2020265-2157.4643.950.6890.5872146666670.06510.33515.075.4051TF25.46272.46172457.3521265887241.4302552695490.5795211545197933122126WETL
2020-06-20 08:00:03FORECAST2020265-2157.3243.0650.1990.3186373333330.0790.4795.075.549TF25.32269.32172457.2562140257841.2987581630070.57396937366644933122126WETL
2020-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2020265-2157.4643.0350.24589.3499696666670.07060.43065.075.5006TF25.46273.46172456.9097457690640.824871924870.5795211545197933122126WETL
2020-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2020265-2158.2843.0450.6689.4119360.07650.43655.075.5065TF26.28259.28172456.9319351114740.8551689385430.61168772114803933122126WETL
2020-06-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020265-2157.1843.5650.3791.5823320.09180.71185.075.7818TF25.18273.18172457.7069265314941.9178677043070.56840289482885933123129WETL
2020-06-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020265-2158.243.6150.90591.5346080.08820.60825.075.6782TF26.2273.2172457.6899314428941.8944684601710.60857921616022933123129WETL
2020-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2020265-2157.9443.7650.8589.3326893333330.08170.66175.075.7317TF25.94272.94172456.9035572824340.8164235380070.59842957464323933123129WETL
2020-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2020265-2157.8243.9750.89588.7560653333330.08930.52935.075.5993TF25.82271.82172456.6968990717140.534619811540.59372218376191933123129WETL
2020-06-19 04:00:04FORECAST2020265-2158.1944.351.24588.9375197272730.07940.46945.075.5394TF26.19269.19172456.7619637612740.6232761626860.60819016065366933122126WETL
2020-06-18 23:58:54FORECAST2020265-2159.8244.8852.3588.8149240.05770.39775.085.4777TF27.82280.82172456.7180075004840.5633751255870.66992215963331933122126WETL
2020-06-18 20:00:03FORECAST2020265-2158.6844.2251.4590.9663506666670.05250.63255.085.7125TF26.68279.68172457.487409805741.6159601459710.62711950025499933123129WETL
2020-06-18 16:00:04FORECAST2020265-2159.2344.6851.95590.8018586666670.05180.58185.085.6618TF27.23282.23172457.4287318090641.5353790557990.64800502632814933123129WETL
2020-06-18 11:54:50FORECAST2020265-2154.642.8548.72589.3405093333330.13120.48125.085.5612TF22.6271.6172456.9063578387640.8202467269530.46454124559319932122125WETL
2020-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2020265-2155.3743.0949.2388.7190040.11990.45995.085.5399TF23.37274.37172456.6836061810740.5165146835130.49560702662653932122125WETL
2020-06-18 04:00:04FORECAST2020265-2158.0543.4550.7588.2839563333330.12930.47935.085.5593TF26.05278.05172456.5274728405740.3040514772240.60273219172475933122126WETL
2020-06-18 00:00:04FORECAST2020265-2158.5545.6552.188.0463853333330.36790.85795.085.9379TF26.55275.55172456.442138624440.1880804196950.62212515623629933123129WETL
2020-06-17 20:00:02FORECAST2020265-2158.6245.6852.1589.1045506666670.38711.00715.096.0971TF26.62288.62172456.8218300846740.7049039044190.62481701428199331241212WETL
2020-06-17 16:00:02FORECAST2020265-2159.146.1352.61588.7705373333330.43710.94715.086.0271TF27.1296.1172456.7020894441640.5416898812140.64310584443037933123129WETL
2020-06-17 12:00:01FORECAST2020265-2160.0643.0451.5587.8795253333330.05810.50815.085.5881TF28.06294.06172456.3821726245540.1066487008410.67867861911687933123129WETL
2020-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2020265-2160.1243.0651.5987.8966906666670.05810.49815.095.5881TF28.12283.12172456.3883426597740.1150249786380.68085255761655933123129WETL
2020-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2020265-2158.924350.9687.7031550833330.10920.54925.095.6392TF26.92293.92172456.3187612042140.0205950813270.63628338468402933123129WETL
2020-06-17 00:02:43FORECAST2020265-2156.4443.5750.00587.6805386666670.49350.88354.665.5435TF24.44282.44172456.3106277374640.0095616393450.53877992797399933123129WETL
2020-06-16 19:54:40FORECAST2020265-2156.543.6150.05588.6936040.49350.88354.775.6535TF24.5297.5172456.6744951703140.5041068315350.54119208793605933123129WETL
2020-06-16 16:00:02FORECAST2020265-2157.5146.8652.18588.3720546666670.560.784.775.55TF25.51298.51172456.5591041987840.3470661148190.58150016661664933123129WETL
2020-06-16 12:00:03FORECAST2020265-2153.4346.1449.78587.3872893333330.6180.6684.775.438TF21.43299.43172456.2051251382439.8665292658050.41780976691909932123127.5WETL
2020-06-16 08:00:04FORECAST2020265-2153.4846.1649.8287.4570847543630.6180.6784.85.478TF21.48294.48172456.2302426315139.9005669973280.41978806557036932123127.5WETL
2020-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2020265-2152.5146.0949.387.2722248333330.43950.45954.795.2495TF20.51299.51172456.1637067991739.8104215805840.38182923198454932122125WETL
2020-06-16 00:02:43FORECAST2020265-2158.264953.6385.5134426666670.21690.22693.493.7169TF26.26313.26172455.5291108945638.9538625074790.61091125655481933122126DRYL
2020-06-15 19:54:44FORECAST2020265-2158.34953.6586.6105017314220.21690.22693.874.0969TF26.3322.3172455.9252794275639.487917203260.61246373975291933122126WETL
2020-06-15 16:02:39FORECAST2020265-2158.0446.5752.30587.0838346666670.20840.20843.914.1184TF26.04313.04172456.09586819139.7185771776950.60234155222455933122126WETL
2020-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2020265-2170.0250.8760.44585.4154626666670.00070.00073.973.9707TF38.02326.02172455.4936747559838.9062029710230.92971704103512935121118DRYL
2020-06-15 07:54:45FORECAST2020265-2170.0350.8760.4584.7945586666670.00070.00074.344.3407TF38.03334.03172455.2689090953438.6043262213940.92985370788669935121118WETL
2020-06-15 04:00:05FORECAST2020265-2169.2150.6159.9185.308757250.00380.01384.434.4438TF37.21326.21172455.4550728883338.8543062513110.91795556702539935121118WETL
2020-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020265-2159.724853.8686.3805653333330.14810.25814.394.6481TF27.72300.72172455.8423365130939.3759187308680.66624564323338933122126WETL
2020-06-14 20:00:04FORECAST2020265-2159.7450.1954.96587.7002013333330.14190.25194.554.8019TF27.74313.74172456.3176989834440.0191540728110.66698223797287933122126WETL
2020-06-14 16:00:04FORECAST2020265-2162.850.2756.53588.4433946666670.09370.20374.774.9737TF30.8310.8172456.5847133576240.3819020022550.77082185471902934122127WETL
2020-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2020265-2155.1350.352.71587.7727986666670.05720.06724.774.8372TF23.13318.13172456.3438039601740.0545728277770.48591246156404932121122.5WETL
2020-06-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020265-2152.9650.3151.63588.3230352479620.0060.0164.764.776TF20.96311.96172456.5415048438440.323131424480.39932188648212932121122.5WETL
2020-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2020265-2150.4149.1449.77588.6262643301280.00050.02054.584.6005TF18.41307.41172456.6503375040340.4712135180740.30384299719611932121122.5WETL