Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 17, 2020

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DAY 261 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/18/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.09°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.95°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.219 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 220 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.75 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.35 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 99 in SWE DAY: 168 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.17 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 45.30 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -25 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-18 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	261	-25	44.09006	33.94994	39.02	98.877755	0	1.75	3.35	5.1	T	F	12.09006	220.09006	168	458.17304535131	45.303122125851	0.21929162795623	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-06-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-24	42.14	42.14	42.14	98.944568	0.0011	1.7511	3.35	5.1011	T	F	10.14	218.14	169	458.72662065232	45.388507310544	0.16705053823935	92	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-06-17 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	261	-24	55.13	42.31	48.72	98.784158666667	0.0139	1.7639	3.35	5.1139	T	F	23.13	231.13	169	458.66990433801	45.309320605751	0.62094396291284	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-24	50.9	38.15	44.525	98.683790666667	0.0161	1.7661	3.35	5.1161	T	F	18.9	226.9	169	458.63440522777	45.259781638029	0.45747222649525	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-06-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-24	56.11	35.16	45.635	98.586304416667	0.0167	1.7667	3.35	5.1167	T	F	24.11	232.11	169	458.59991669731	45.211670992979	0.65691364117779	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-17 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	57.2	36.56	46.88	98.251213333333	0.0113	1.3413	3.35	4.6913	T	F	25.2	232.2	168	457.9505046329	44.994192726794	0.69530228165822	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-16 19:54:40	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	56.98	35.23	46.105	99.338625333333	0.0082	1.4482	3.35	4.7982	T	F	24.98	242.98	168	458.33651551343	45.530519391174	0.68770789357175	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	56.83	35.8	46.315	99.297133333333	0.0081	1.4481	3.35	4.7981	T	F	24.83	242.83	168	458.32180618737	45.510041498561	0.68248356701048	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	56.44	36.86	46.65	98.54082	0.0056	1.4456	3.35	4.7956	T	F	24.44	242.44	168	458.05341375764	45.136958995477	0.66873138753062	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	56.49	37.02	46.755	98.651670087696	0.0043	1.4843	3.35	4.8343	T	F	24.49	237.49	168	458.09278331108	45.191618128759	0.67050775453689	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	56.36	36.97	46.665	98.7547395	0.0015	1.4715	3.35	4.8215	T	F	24.36	237.36	168	458.12937953355	45.242447533132	0.66588130602778	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-16 00:02:43	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	55.45	36.79	46.12	97.439577333333	0.0017	0.1717	3.35	3.5217	F	F	23.45	239.45	168	457.66169339149	44.594361965725	0.63282252155676	92	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-06-15 19:54:44	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	55.57	36.8	46.185	98.483445731422	0.0024	0.5524	3.35	3.9024	T	F	23.57	248.57	168	458.03303233976	45.108671283631	0.63724511336781	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-06-15 16:02:39	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	49.6	36.52	43.06	98.676174666667	0.0091	0.5891	3.35	3.9391	T	F	17.6	241.6	168	458.10148486941	45.203702136033	0.40738647350571	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	51.3	36.98	44.14	98.119449333333	0.0094	0.6394	3.35	3.9894	T	F	19.3	243.3	168	457.90365841859	44.929254811751	0.47305887259044	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-06-15 07:54:45	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	56.05	37.41	46.73	97.560045333333	0.0114	1.0114	3.35	4.3614	T	F	24.05	251.05	168	457.7045981669	44.653681346438	0.65474795661757	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.16	37.48	45.82	97.78440125	0.0218	1.1018	3.35	4.4518	T	F	22.16	242.16	168	457.78446772379	44.764180077921	0.58427763285143	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	53	37.61	45.305	96.819548	0.0456	1.2656	3.15	4.4156	T	F	21	242	168	457.44066165462	44.289198098221	0.53947349702212	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	53.14	37.66	45.4	97.746021333333	0.0444	1.4044	3.18	4.5844	T	F	21.14	255.14	168	457.77080789696	44.745275154473	0.54491924282163	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-14 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	49.2	37.04	43.12	97.845405333333	0.0208	1.6108	3.18	4.7908	T	F	17.2	250.2	168	457.80617699562	44.79423095224	0.3922365580916	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	51.49	37.29	44.39	97.202306666667	0.0262	1.6162	3.18	4.7962	T	F	19.49	253.49	168	457.57715084982	44.477554540564	0.48047848617243	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	51.51	37.36	44.435	97.264752581295	0.0268	1.5968	3.19	4.7868	T	F	19.51	248.51	168	457.59940605998	44.508293011772	0.48125993651357	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-06-14 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	51.99	37.45	44.72	97.335921663461	0.0208	1.3808	3.22	4.6008	T	F	19.99	247.99	168	457.6247658316	44.543328358245	0.50002944328572	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	53.72	35.57	44.645	97.170223571189	0.0116	1.4816	2.94	4.4216	T	F	21.72	251.72	168	457.5657153258	44.46176285672	0.56737916954658	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	53.78	34.86	44.32	98.455649679081	0.0139	1.5539	3.25	4.8039	T	F	21.78	261.78	168	458.02315710729	45.094967501062	0.56969149881454	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-13 15:58:58	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	55.78	36.4	46.09	98.038474624198	0.0152	1.5152	3.28	4.7952	T	F	23.78	264.78	168	457.87486160317	44.889353000341	0.6449404756484	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.5	35.89	45.195	97.746091402333	0.0208	1.7708	3.31	5.0808	T	F	22.5	260.5	168	457.77083283648	44.745309667757	0.59723131412408	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.55	35.9	45.225	97.681186786959	0.0208	1.6508	3.54	5.1908	T	F	22.55	260.55	168	457.74772955673	44.713341472137	0.5991276622981	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-13 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.56	36.03	45.295	97.51824432304	0.0162	1.6162	3.36	4.9762	T	F	22.56	257.56	168	457.6897121907	44.633097177554	0.59950665340587	92	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-06-13 00:02:38	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	53.97	34.42	44.195	98.495094969406	0.0132	1.2332	3.13	4.3632	T	F	21.97	244.97	168	458.03717081126	45.114414638573	0.5769977578562	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.02	34.42	44.22	99.502223490246	0.0132	1.1932	3.22	4.4132	T	F	22.02	256.02	168	458.39449758092	45.611271744996	0.57891617176334	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-12 16:02:36	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.78	35.44	45.11	99.256465867915	0.0019	1.0719	3.14	4.2119	T	F	22.78	258.78	168	458.30738766261	45.489971580548	0.6078201659748	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	57.63	34.55	46.09	98.510274291593	0.0059	1.2259	3.14	4.3659	T	F	25.63	250.63	168	458.04256318559	45.121898536637	0.7099033809785	92	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-06-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	57.66	34.56	46.11	98.119903942942	0.0059	1.2459	3.16	4.4059	T	F	25.66	258.66	168	457.90382007345	44.929478840714	0.71090972172808	92	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-06-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	58.06	34.56	46.31	97.919414210508	0.0056	1.4056	3.41	4.8156	T	F	26.06	253.06	168	457.83250971431	44.830691157751	0.72416828910725	92	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-06-11 23:54:57	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	55.23	33.97	44.6	99.088128	0.0318	1.3518	3.45	4.8018	T	F	23.23	253.23	168	458.24768814466	45.406905578583	0.62466889510332	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-11 19:59:01	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	55.25	33.97	44.61	100.23844703066	0.0318	1.3618	3.46	4.8218	T	F	23.25	253.25	168	458.6551301891	45.974877972801	0.62541250176323	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-11 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.31	34.53	44.42	99.926321220019	0.09	1.2	3.43	4.63	T	F	22.31	260.31	168	458.54469314629	45.820684301071	0.59000467477088	92	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-06-11 11:55:12	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	52.44	35.59	44.015	98.226138691999	0.0771	0.5971	3.34	3.9371	T	F	20.44	266.44	168	457.94159102321	44.98183423268	0.51762658315797	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-06-11 07:55:22	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	52.46	35.59	44.025	97.897470666667	0.0771	0.5971	3.37	3.9671	T	F	20.46	265.46	168	457.82470261087	44.819880394323	0.51840813519529	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-06-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	54.35	34.97	44.66	97.551669542272	0.0917	0.7117	3.36	4.0717	T	F	22.35	257.35	168	457.7016155468	44.649556748785	0.59152870316593	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-06-10 23:55:01	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	51.18	34.72	42.95	98.849197689336	0.0834	0.8434	3.48	4.3234	T	F	19.18	269.18	168	458.16290980955	45.289036045686	0.46837744885436	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	51.2	34.72	42.96	99.925824195921	0.0679	0.8279	3.43	4.2579	T	F	19.2	271.2	168	458.54451721829	45.820438813559	0.46915740015328	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 15:59:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	50.41	35.14	42.775	99.91430586869	0.0086	0.7586	3.43	4.1886	T	F	18.41	271.41	168	458.54044009784	45.814749785099	0.43846977164556	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 11:59:00	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	45.13	34.17	39.65	97.618690666667	0.0028	0.8028	3.33	4.1328	T	F	13.13	274.13	168	457.72547999902	44.682562042276	0.25060260123791	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-06-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	37.11	34.19	35.65	97.508865333333	0.0028	0.8028	3.32	4.1228	T	F	5.11	264.11	168	457.68637197256	44.628478809574	0.072168316114306	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-06-10 04:02:33	FORECAST	2020	261	-25	34.51	32.29	33.4	97.866809083333	0.0016	0.7816	3.27	4.0516	T	F	2.51	262.51	168	457.81379306283	44.804775081396	0.043118813379646	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L