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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 13, 2020

[ Friday, June 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 14, 2020 ]

DAY 257 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.062
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 312

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.36 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.49 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 101 in
SWE DAY: 164
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020257-2936.2330.6199433.42497101.057868750.360000000000010.740000000000013.754.49TF4.23312.23164456.81638830291 46.1648906119640.06185611122612187 1123126WETL
2020-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020257-2833.8933.8933.89100.9896680.00770.38773.754.1377TF1.89309.89165457.327139378546.1853159732240.038100578480553871122124WETL
2020-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020257-2844.334.5839.44101.483673333330.32640.70643.754.4564TF12.3320.3165457.5034158687246.4291272049050.23119277836963871123126WETL
2020-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2020257-2842.534.7638.63101.392653333330.55530.93533.754.6853TF10.5318.5165457.4709537177846.3841938203770.18030861996399871123126WETL
2020-06-13 04:00:02FORECAST2020257-2840.6234.937.76101.124946166670.34980.72983.754.4798TF8.62316.62165457.3754328357746.2520660234730.13534032188477871123126WETL
2020-06-13 00:02:38FORECAST2020257-2940.3535.2237.785102.272113333330.42250.55253.754.3025TF8.35303.35164457.2508454149946.7640102840440.1295744014242871123126WETL
2020-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020257-2943.1933.4638.325103.31363799320.47190.66193.754.4119TF11.19314.19164457.622437170147.2786388113560.19892570156865871123126WETL
2020-06-12 16:02:36FORECAST2020257-2941.8334.6838.255103.245873333330.43910.62913.754.3791TF9.83312.83164457.5982902042647.2451351079790.16331312840264871123126WETL
2020-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2020257-2938.4534.3936.42102.559642666670.42780.61783.754.3678TF6.45309.45164457.3535274392646.906014346510.093778830134475871123126WETL
2020-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020257-2942.7134.5438.625102.133078666670.38460.63463.754.3846TF10.71316.71164457.2011666683846.6953627218340.18585567407566871123126WETL
2020-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2020257-2938.7234.8536.785101.657903333330.43240.80243.754.5524TF6.72311.72164457.0312483457746.4608384646470.098367373015998871123126WETL
2020-06-11 23:54:57FORECAST2020257-2938.3334.2636.295102.8127320.3970.8973.754.647TF6.33312.33164457.4438482700447.0310517772370.091790802695737871123126WETL
2020-06-11 19:59:01FORECAST2020257-2938.1934.136.145103.878277333330.40670.93673.754.6867TF6.19312.19164457.8234767972447.5579140924550.089510967602322871123126WETL
2020-06-11 16:00:04FORECAST2020257-2938.8233.636.21103.711599245930.37410.91413.754.6641TF6.82316.82164457.7641611171947.4754532269380.10010776328799871123126WETL
2020-06-11 11:55:12FORECAST2020257-2942.9133.7238.315102.220523729340.29530.78533.754.5353TF10.91319.91164457.2324138805746.7385368129020.19123562771675871123126WETL
2020-06-11 07:55:22FORECAST2020257-2942.9933.8438.415101.922741333330.2780.8583.754.608TF10.99318.99164457.1259772727346.5915327383160.19341401483063871123126WETL
2020-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020257-2943.9334.5639.245101.7156680.31960.88963.754.6396TF11.93310.93164457.0519154102446.4893408866320.22012557991647871123126WETL
2020-06-10 23:55:01FORECAST2020257-2944.8235.0439.93102.6510480.33120.93123.774.7012TF12.82323.82164457.3861542624546.9511680757310.24725751165001871123126WETL
2020-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2020257-2944.3335.1339.73103.474529333330.29640.85643.774.6264TF12.33326.33164457.6797518485747.3581969079270.23210350164084871123126WETL
2020-06-10 15:59:02FORECAST2020257-2944.1934.9139.55103.3897960.31580.93583.774.7058TF12.19326.19164457.6495700250547.3162956843780.2278705464646871123126WETL
2020-06-10 11:59:00FORECAST2020257-2939.9335.3837.655101.876786666670.15670.83673.774.6067TF7.93322.93164457.1095444865446.5688515469520.12094650737728871123126WETL
2020-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2020257-2939.9334.9437.435101.564640.15710.81713.784.5971TF7.93319.93164456.9978741540146.4148245692180.12094650737728871123126WETL
2020-06-10 04:02:33FORECAST2020257-2943.5235.0439.28101.579386416670.13670.72673.794.5167TF11.52326.52164457.0031516708846.422099737210.20822387895615871123126WETL
2020-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020257-2946.0734.9240.495100.717306666670.25190.69192.353.0419FF14.07333.07164456.694294272245.997019289130.28818775009347872123127.5DRYL
2020-06-09 19:59:02FORECAST2020257-2946.134.940.5101.792910666670.26230.66232.943.6023TF14.1340.1164457.0795465829746.5274574528810.28920800617013872123127.5DRYL
2020-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2020257-2944.4236.8540.635101.470705333330.18870.56872.953.5187TF12.42340.42164456.9642517337946.3684849355460.23484759710592871123126DRYL
2020-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2020257-2943.634.8339.215101.389142666670.25580.78583.033.8158TF11.6334.6164456.935051166746.3282530921420.21051593461927871123126DRYL
2020-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020257-2943.6434.8839.26101.4013880.25580.74583.384.1258TF11.64330.64164456.93943555246.3342929969090.21166748249597871123126WETL
2020-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2020257-2939.5934.8737.23101.362525583330.20850.91854.125.0385TF7.59326.59164456.9255205720346.315124768660.11426348088433871123126WETL
2020-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020257-2942.7234.3938.555101.250726666670.6181.3683.875.238TF10.72331.72164456.8854824705546.2599871035940.18612242688025871124128WETL
2020-06-08 19:55:32FORECAST2020257-2942.7834.4238.6101.612510666670.74011.36013.745.1001TF10.78334.78164457.0150056123746.4384421326130.18772791126214871124128WETL
2020-06-08 15:55:07FORECAST2020257-2944.8133.2439.025101.635491505940.47621.29623.735.0262TF12.81337.81164457.0232290171146.4497805107840.2469430548663871124128WETL
2020-06-08 11:55:08FORECAST2020257-2941.8835.1738.525101.475007154630.43441.05443.824.8744TF9.88326.88164456.965791677646.3706069799040.16454440021586871124128WETL
2020-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020257-2941.9235.2138.565101.359513333330.43441.07443.84.8744TF9.92328.92164456.9244419559546.313639066760.16553372684464871124128WETL
2020-06-08 04:00:02FORECAST2020257-2938.6636.6137.635101.11559650.38691.08693.935.0169TF6.66333.66164456.8370736625846.1933532067060.097333796927363871124128WETL
2020-06-08 00:00:04FORECAST2020257-2942.9437.7740.355101.495506666670.26760.99763.324.3176TF10.94339.94164456.9731297561146.3807193376480.1920507582501871124128WETL
2020-06-07 19:55:10FORECAST2020257-2944.1335.9540.04102.367563584310.2851.1053.634.735TF12.13338.13164457.2849407743646.8111452508650.22606978287736871124128WETL
2020-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2020257-2940.6938.4639.575102.03460627220.33370.95373.514.4637TF8.69334.69164457.1659706913746.646749820540.13686338359962871123126WETL
2020-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2020257-2949.2737.9243.595101.586349510.33770.64773.794.4377TF17.27350.27164457.0056435867246.4255350374430.40512427523168872123127.5WETL
2020-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2020257-2949.337.9443.62102.137199719620.33770.64773.694.3377TF17.3346.3164457.2026394221246.6973972949940.40628232214153872123127.5WETL
2020-06-07 03:59:03FORECAST2020257-2948.4136.8842.645101.959749023910.25930.60933.894.4993TF16.41354.41164457.1392093433646.6097990536370.37231732738287872123127.5WETL
2020-06-06 23:55:14FORECAST2020257-2947.9537.4642.705101.803259929340.43090.73094.084.8109TF15.95354.95164457.0832482994946.5325647359820.35512611315084872123127.5WETL
2020-06-06 19:55:37FORECAST2020257-2947.9837.542.74101.806722758340.39610.69614.084.7761TF15.98359.98164457.0844868598546.534273630880.35623877842514872123127.5WETL
2020-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2020257-2953.7436.345.02101.904880462990.01920.15923.954.1092TF21.74362.74164457.1195906875846.5827172463090.58117468937513873122126WETL
2020-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2020257-2945.8932.2439.065102.540986079120.00190.20194.134.3319TF13.89355.89164457.3468671028246.8967987329180.28210211476372872122125WETL
2020-06-06 08:00:01FORECAST2020257-2936.7832.2534.515102.773972353240.00030.20033.964.1603TF4.78344.78164457.4300197510547.0119002034370.068842266865833871122124WETL
2020-06-06 04:00:03FORECAST2020257-2943.641.2742.435102.567484064980.00080.29083.924.2108TF11.6351.6164457.356326696846.9098877504920.21051593461927871122124WETL