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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 11, 2020

[ Wednesday, June 10, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, June 12, 2020 ]

DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.528
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 316

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 162
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-12 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020255-3152.6499642.9200647.78501103.6927060.119999999999951.58999999999992.664.2499999999999TF20.64996315.64996162456.68829492245 47.3552450990350.5280937640066591 31251215WETL
2020-06-11 11:55:12FORECAST2020255-3054.8844.149.49104.724134666670.19911.66912.664.3291TF22.88317.88163457.5919461487947.9209205908680.608235516403149131251215WETL
2020-06-11 07:55:22FORECAST2020255-3054.2344.5749.4104.404389333330.271.742.664.4TF22.23317.23163457.4779482357447.7627058190190.58519079799169131251215WETL
2020-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020255-3050.2344.3947.31103.999477333330.23561.70562.664.3656TF18.23313.23163457.3334531660747.562440096320.43992503177899121251212.5WETL
2020-06-10 23:55:00FORECAST2020255-3154.4944.3849.435104.939394666670.19011.68012.664.3401TF22.49322.49162457.1347471460947.971443646610.594448692587399131251215WETL
2020-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2020255-3155.9743.7349.85105.844602666670.17221.66222.664.3222TF23.97323.97162457.4580268126248.4194630846590.646004142008069131251215WETL
2020-06-10 15:59:02FORECAST2020255-3156.4442.2849.36105.830170666670.20971.69972.664.3597TF24.44324.44162457.4528784975348.4123162033510.66188084943239131251215WETL
2020-06-10 11:59:00FORECAST2020255-3155.5944.4350.01104.335529333330.22181.71182.664.3718TF23.59323.59162456.9186732083147.6728516314740.632977912720029131251215WETL
2020-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2020255-3155.7245.9550.835104.0692480.24541.74542.664.4054TF23.72320.72162456.8232875876947.5412560081390.637452385241619131251215WETL
2020-06-10 04:02:33FORECAST2020255-3157.145.3851.24104.042010416670.26621.77622.664.4362TF25.1325.1162456.8135270747347.5277977423840.683693332758239131251215WETL
2020-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2020255-3155.644.8350.215103.644980.25930.32932.662.9893FF23.6322.6162456.6711756314547.3316748648980.63332275370428913122126DRYL
2020-06-09 19:59:02FORECAST2020255-3155.7144.8250.265104.742505333330.23030.89032.663.5503TF23.71329.71162457.0643329914947.8740633360370.63710885142357913123129DRYL
2020-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2020255-3157.8844.6951.285104.5106640.22250.89252.663.5525TF25.88331.88162456.9813736842747.7594267993750.708666974874039141231210.5DRYL
2020-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2020255-3159.6543.5551.6103.740629333330.15490.90492.663.5649TF27.65333.65162456.7054829087847.3789142169410.761652302034329141231210.5DRYL
2020-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2020255-3159.5343.6551.59103.777201333330.14991.24992.663.9099TF27.53329.53162456.7185982649447.3969779248190.758234519204559141241214DRYL
2020-06-09 04:00:03FORECAST2020255-3159.5843.2251.4103.450792250.16292.00292.664.6629TF27.58331.58162456.6014991839647.2357868331190.759661813683249141251217.5WETL
2020-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2020255-3159.5543.351.425103.553450666670.11861.87862.494.3686TF27.55329.55162456.6383383009547.2864756377560.758805987505639141251217.5WETL
2020-06-08 19:55:32FORECAST2020255-3154.1642.9248.54103.787806666670.09991.58992.634.2199TF22.16333.16162456.7224012943247.402216285870.582689954359399131251215WETL
2020-06-08 15:55:07FORECAST2020255-3158.0843.2750.675103.764518666670.09581.57582.634.2058TF26.08336.08162456.7140501777847.3907135850010.71491927254269141251217.5WETL
2020-06-08 11:55:08FORECAST2020255-3155.6543.7449.695103.337992487960.0541.6242.634.254TF23.65332.65162456.5610097532447.1800981961750.635045340549979131251215WETL
2020-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2020255-3155.6743.749.685103.231737333330.06661.67662.574.2466TF23.67333.67162456.5228588947347.1276478560830.635733615433419131251215WETL
2020-06-08 04:00:02FORECAST2020255-3160.3443.9152.125103.43685250.06491.73492.644.3749TF28.34336.34162456.5964961443247.2289044236970.780782688313399141251217.5WETL
2020-06-08 00:00:04FORECAST2020255-3157.6542.8150.23104.221186666670.15581.67582.183.8558TF25.65336.65162456.8777220024947.6163383486630.701398809720469141251217.5DRYL
2020-06-07 19:55:10FORECAST2020255-3156.6740.8748.77104.520336917640.14831.58832.574.1583TF24.67340.67162456.9848359011747.7642090146430.669548782322589131251215WETL
2020-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2020255-3155.7940.4348.11104.535660938860.15791.47792.574.0479TF23.79339.79162456.9903206373247.7717852104850.63985401172289131241212WETL
2020-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2020255-3158.6841.750.19104.406274843330.11341.68342.64.2834TF26.68341.68162456.9440043738247.7078213086660.733282944735599141251217.5WETL
2020-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2020255-3158.7141.7350.22104.965379719620.11341.60342.584.1834TF26.71337.71162457.1440376325647.9842974966610.734185209091869141251217.5WETL
2020-06-07 03:59:03FORECAST2020255-3159.8242.0950.955104.863041023910.08051.65052.74.3505TF27.82342.82162457.1074447315247.9336767292150.766448597698849141251217.5WETL
2020-06-06 23:55:14FORECAST2020255-3156.8341.549.165104.792214596010.15161.98162.634.6116TF24.83341.83162457.0821139953447.8986469777980.67484158973829131251215WETL
2020-06-06 19:55:36FORECAST2020255-3156.8741.5249.195104.634137425010.15162.00162.614.6116TF24.87346.87162457.0255620064947.820475461730.676159354974529131251215WETL
2020-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2020255-3156.6442.8949.765104.536916462990.1131.8132.634.443TF24.64343.64162456.9907700019847.7724059480540.668552555800589131251215WETL
2020-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2020255-3155.7842.5949.185104.467330079120.15341.97342.694.6634TF23.78347.78162456.9658621768547.7380035589170.639511257225539131251215WETL
2020-06-06 08:00:01FORECAST2020255-3155.8142.6449.225104.487663019910.15341.78342.714.4934TF23.81345.81162456.9731406268147.7480555269630.640539183461179131251215WETL
2020-06-06 04:00:02FORECAST2020255-3158.8744.9651.915105.073021398310.2381.7182.824.538TF26.87338.87162457.1825164405948.0375483328980.738971049074359141251217.5WETL
2020-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2020255-3158.5945.1451.865105.873887267510.3931.7732.774.543TF26.59320.59162457.4684729034148.4339655286150.730566907827179141251217.5WETL
2020-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2020255-3158.6145.1651.885107.377747991320.3931.8133.074.883TF26.61338.61162458.0038709173749.1794242304160.731171666235889141251217.5WETL
2020-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2020255-3154.9143.9349.42107.45566402790.11681.30683.014.3168TF22.91337.91162458.0315545637449.2180848413770.609290673155989131241212WETL
2020-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2020255-3162.2244.0853.15105.341699895070.21481.01482.883.8948TF30.22347.22162457.278515395348.1704961372360.828206315781019141241214DRYL
2020-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2020255-3162.2344.0953.16104.874133099320.21481.01482.813.8248TF30.23347.23162457.1114113470147.9391629948240.828439686712039141241214DRYL
2020-06-05 04:00:03FORECAST2020255-3162.6542.5452.595104.259709738010.30491.30492.794.0949TF30.65346.65162456.8915201600647.6353772736470.838058505513739141241214WETL
2020-06-05 00:02:23FORECAST2020255-3165.8442.5854.21106.306782907470.03011.05012.954.0001TF33.84339.84162457.622800219548.6484076764450.899554323466229151241216WETL
2020-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2020255-3165.8642.654.23107.196703778490.00991.02992.953.9799TF33.86355.86162457.9395245667949.089607563450.899877010549559151241216DRYL
2020-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2020255-3153.4642.3447.9107.703153734910.03271.22272.974.1927TF21.46341.46162458.1194515752449.340909721960.557513701199989131241212WETL
2020-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2020255-3149.8543.546.675107.306821214260.04420.40423.043.4442FF17.85339.85162457.9786657978749.1442348107170.42623705117262912122125DRYL
2020-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2020255-3146.7643.5245.14107.007400507850.00060.36062.863.2206FF14.76340.76162457.8722111464948.9957150795670.31954472730431912122125DRYL
2020-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2020255-3144.2943.5443.915105.985073009440.00090.44092.813.2509FF12.29345.29162457.5081268219548.4890322236370.24345932197399911122124DRYL