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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 2, 2020

[ Monday, June 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 3, 2020 ]

DAY 246 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/03/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.553
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 255

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 153
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -40

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-03 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020246-4053.2500835.1544.20004116.374439166670.00999999999999090.0299999999999913.53.53FF21.25008255.25008153456.40723054357 53.114135486120.5532501829327990 3121123DRYL
2020-06-03 00:00:02FORECAST2020246-3941.5341.5341.53116.947902666670.00330.02333.53.5233FF9.53243.53154457.1490496218253.4626225593320.15824978185828901121122DRYL
2020-06-02 12:02:20FORECAST2020246-3957.1141.1449.125116.7070240.0160.0363.53.536FF25.11259.11154457.0629073630353.3424516991260.69420883556618903121123DRYL
2020-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020246-3957.841.8849.84116.3544240.01030.03033.53.5303FF25.8259.8154456.9367165994753.1666084643830.71724123696742904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-02 04:00:03FORECAST2020246-3953.4736.1444.805116.056025333330.00760.02763.53.5276FF21.47255.47154456.8298354304553.0178549537390.56166115166014903121123DRYL
2020-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2020246-4057.8237.7247.77116.116241333330.00730.02733.53.5273FF25.82251.82153456.3144059673552.9855136871820.71789624197253904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2020246-4058.7237.948.31117.090274666670.00380.03383.53.5338FF26.72267.72153456.6642620928553.4709438789030.7465917359132904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 15:55:31FORECAST2020246-4058.8536.5347.69117.083222666670.00820.03823.53.5382FF26.85267.85153456.6617322443653.4674272797120.75060627531428904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2020246-4059.7537.5448.645116.0007680.0030.0333.53.533FF27.75268.75153456.2728725010652.9280036276890.77744926453059904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 08:00:03FORECAST2020246-4059.0438.748.87115.883070666670.00240.03243.53.5324FF27.04268.04153456.230526568252.8693943505930.75641241189618904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 04:02:17FORECAST2020246-4059.0438.5748.805115.723600250.00610.03613.53.5361FF27.04268.04153456.1731310363252.7899970608380.75641241189618904121123.5DRYL
2020-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2020246-4058.8838.4848.68115.735962666670.00180.01183.53.5118FF26.88269.88153456.1775812664352.7961515148220.75152789044096904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2020246-4059.4538.3948.92116.855901333330.01720.03723.53.5372FF27.45282.45153456.5801582591653.354085924290.76868911963931904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 16:00:02FORECAST2020246-4059.338.0548.675116.824850666670.02210.05213.53.5521FF27.3282.3153456.5690121083653.3386066585870.76423805663328904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2020246-4058.4538.1248.285116.0338240.00240.02243.53.5224FF26.45281.45153456.2847633327352.9444659224320.73814671714771904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 07:59:09FORECAST2020246-4058.8437.8248.33116.0669520.00260.02263.53.5226FF26.84276.84153456.2966790624952.9609647465050.75029866759276904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 04:00:03FORECAST2020246-4059.237.8348.515115.854150916670.00250.06253.53.5625FF27.2282.2153456.2201196897652.8549945977580.76124468267341904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2020246-4060.1437.949.02119.689478666670.00020.08022.162.2402FF28.14256.14153457.593626153754.7691425555260.78855002840946904121123.5DRYL
2020-05-30 20:00:02FORECAST2020246-4060.5437.6949.115120.793782666670.00020.09022.832.9202FF28.54282.54153457.9866245893155.3219367948820.79959204801377904122127DRYL
2020-05-30 16:00:01FORECAST2020246-4061.0337.4549.24120.694234666670.00070.11072.832.9407FF29.03282.03153457.9512427507155.2720747584460.81263689530261904122127DRYL
2020-05-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020246-4056.2137.3846.795119.698809333330.00070.22072.833.0507FF24.21277.21153457.5969513603954.7738102324020.66298522352323903122126DRYL
2020-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020246-4056.5738.0247.295118.890781333330.0010.2112.893.101FF24.57279.57153457.3086989270754.3697885259690.67562543409805903122126DRYL
2020-05-30 03:55:51FORECAST2020246-4062.3237.9350.125118.1728440.00150.27152.853.1215FF30.32285.32153457.0520882363754.0111451230310.84439918951425904122127DRYL
2020-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2020246-4062.2936.149.195117.843422666670.0020.3023.173.472FF30.29282.29153456.9341872180853.846688555190.84370332429498904122127DRYL
2020-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2020246-4062.3134.4648.385120.103253333330.00170.29173.223.5117FF30.31299.31153457.7410089579754.9761843599350.84416746125009904122127DRYL
2020-05-29 16:00:01FORECAST2020246-4063.3636.149.73119.798541333330.0020.2423.223.462FF31.36304.36153457.6324883263654.8237045682420.86726352156756905122128DRYL
2020-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020246-4062.7136.4649.585117.3161280.00180.27183.193.4618FF30.71300.71153456.7452612053253.5835855269570.85325977545953905122128DRYL
2020-05-29 07:55:42FORECAST2020246-4062.7336.4849.605116.642306666670.00180.31182.823.1318FF30.73300.73153456.503467139653.2476174084940.85370487785684905122128DRYL
2020-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2020246-4064.5137.5851.045116.296133916670.00180.32182.733.0518FF32.51300.51153456.3790854929253.0751232432510.88973090373882905122128DRYL
2020-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2020246-4064.5238.7451.63117.2703920.0030.3332.953.283FF32.52297.52153456.7288623858653.5607727297040.88991354740389905122128DRYL
2020-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2020246-4062.5538.4350.49119.5752680.0030.4532.83.253FF30.55314.55153457.5529180587654.7120128010580.84966635710206905122128DRYL
2020-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020246-4064.1639.151.63119.1688760.0030.4732.743.213FF32.16319.16153457.4079719968254.50879389630.88320138005345905122128DRYL
2020-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020246-4062.239.150.65116.999757333330.00260.43262.993.4226FF30.2316.2153456.6317862824653.4258081857350.84160348028876904122127DRYL
2020-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2020246-4062.2139.1250.665116.6703360.00260.45262.753.2026FF30.21310.21153456.5135334376653.261587334720.84183770360847904122127DRYL
2020-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020246-4060.7837.3549.065116.073390083330.00250.45252.783.2325FF28.78313.78153456.2989946446652.9641712000230.80604807906012904122127DRYL
2020-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2020246-4059.7337.3948.56116.838801333330.00160.43162.623.0516FF27.73300.73153456.5740200398553.3455612213970.77687119340903904122127DRYL
2020-05-27 20:00:01FORECAST2020246-4059.7437.3948.565118.8954360.00160.45162.993.4416FF27.74314.74153457.3103611075854.3721147712030.77716033557898904122127DRYL
2020-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2020246-4057.5336.5547.04119.105902666670.00160.36162.93.2616FF25.53308.53153457.3854981811754.4773126275110.70832800336279904122127DRYL
2020-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020246-4059.4539.4449.445116.2563480.00190.18192.62.7819FF27.45311.45153456.3647832004253.0553030506920.76868911963931904122127DRYL
2020-05-27 07:59:12FORECAST2020246-4059.4739.4749.47115.93130.00190.18192.632.8119FF27.47312.47153456.2478803708552.8934098936370.76927903873656904122127DRYL
2020-05-27 04:00:02FORECAST2020246-4058.6740.5749.62115.36583250.00190.19192.732.9219FF26.67315.67153456.0442810305752.6119281379560.74503870055863904122127DRYL
2020-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2020246-4064.1739.4851.825116.942762666670.00220.13222.632.7622FF32.17322.17153456.6113339038253.3973908516240.88339165031689905122128DRYL
2020-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2020246-4064.1839.5151.845118.223202666670.00220.13222.482.6122FF32.18336.18153457.0701030833254.0362914296930.88358170135763905122128DRYL
2020-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020246-4064.6740.1852.425118.745980.00220.15222.42.5522FF32.67340.67153457.2569805848354.2974282713860.89262727782628905122128DRYL
2020-05-26 11:55:51FORECAST2020246-4048.9438.3443.64119.0857880.00120.16122.382.5412FF16.94316.94153457.3783189357654.467257524580.38833344705664902122125DRYL
2020-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020246-4040.838.3639.58119.309921333330.00120.10122.432.5312FF8.8298.8153457.4582949741454.5793131866460.14175745886119901122124DRYL
2020-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020246-404039.1639.58119.11531650.00040.19042.492.6804FF8303153457.3888580024654.4820185845360.12506347269582901122124DRYL