Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 1, 2020

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DAY 245 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/02/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.88°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.82°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.35°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.283 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.36 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.16 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.52 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 118 in SWE DAY: 152 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 53.73 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -41 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-02 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	245	-41	45.87998	28.81994	37.34996	117.74254666667	0	1.36	2.16	3.52	T	F	13.87998	240.87998	152	456.36123693641	53.733134236843	0.28267700689274	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-40	38.42	38.42	38.42	117.964904	0.001	1.361	2.16	3.521	T	F	6.42	233.42	153	456.97767728385	53.907327830933	0.099606429294389	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-40	52.96	38.41	45.685	117.982216	0.0123	1.3723	2.16	3.5323	T	F	20.96	247.96	153	456.98387385163	53.91597011328	0.53880463016147	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-40	52.67	31.86	42.265	117.86818133333	0.0147	1.3747	2.16	3.5347	T	F	20.67	247.67	153	456.94305185829	53.859046495439	0.52785711722172	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-06-01 04:02:17	FORECAST	2020	245	-40	52.85	31.49	42.17	117.69285758333	0.0069	1.3669	2.16	3.5269	T	F	20.85	247.85	153	456.88026660362	53.771544150015	0.53465513293053	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-06-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.81	34.83	44.32	117.63147466667	0.0111	1.3511	2.16	3.5111	T	F	21.81	249.81	152	456.32129997964	53.677747438416	0.57069296855006	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.76	31.66	42.71	118.71724666667	0.0041	1.3641	2.16	3.5241	T	F	21.76	261.76	152	456.71121642308	54.219498135532	0.56882782493632	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-31 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.64	32.41	43.025	118.65684	0.0071	1.3671	2.16	3.5271	T	F	21.64	261.64	152	456.68955175187	54.189339071893	0.56434529135947	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.94	34.95	44.445	117.911952	0.0031	1.3631	2.16	3.5231	T	F	21.94	261.94	152	456.4221264856	53.817623869907	0.57553486170219	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-31 07:59:09	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.83	35.41	44.62	117.969352	0.0002	1.3602	2.16	3.5202	T	F	21.83	256.83	152	456.44275189005	53.846255665567	0.5714385868017	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-31 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.87	34.91	44.39	117.79886291667	0.0018	1.4018	2.16	3.5618	T	F	21.87	261.87	152	456.38148165665	53.761219595377	0.5729290560872	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	54.54	33.98	44.26	121.71165333333	0.0016	0.0816	2.16	2.2416	F	F	22.54	234.54	152	457.78099565875	55.717281846206	0.59772372561308	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-05-30 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.83	33.46	43.645	122.831592	0.0015	0.7615	2.16	2.9215	F	F	21.83	260.83	152	458.17901798927	56.278858200618	0.5714385868017	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-30 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.33	33.38	43.355	122.75429333333	0.0022	0.7822	2.16	2.9422	F	F	21.33	260.33	152	458.15158267219	56.240073770473	0.55272847327583	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	53.81	33.81	43.81	121.651448	0.0044	0.8944	2.16	3.0544	F	F	21.81	259.81	152	457.75956680546	55.687114137737	0.57069296855006	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	54.24	35.18	44.71	120.91579866667	0.0032	0.9432	2.16	3.1032	F	F	22.24	262.24	152	457.49746269522	55.318671089765	0.58666388881001	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-30 03:55:51	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	54.59	35.23	44.91	120.309436	0.0079	0.9579	2.16	3.1179	F	F	22.59	261.59	152	457.28105354892	55.015225645956	0.59955970683541	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	54.9	35.16	45.03	119.91217333333	0.0044	1.3144	2.16	3.4744	T	F	22.9	258.9	152	457.13909078697	54.816541891889	0.61089227119963	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	54.38	35.1	44.74	122.12635733333	0.0046	1.3346	2.18	3.5146	T	F	22.38	276.38	152	457.92851204745	55.925141095429	0.5918342763891	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-29 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	55.69	35.12	45.405	121.954704	0.0032	1.2832	2.18	3.4632	T	F	23.69	279.69	152	457.86747124745	55.839091927211	0.63932850288736	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	51.15	37.09	44.12	119.41172	0.0055	1.2755	2.18	3.4555	T	F	19.15	277.15	152	456.96004858	54.566385372221	0.47032422073259	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-29 07:55:42	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	50.63	36.15	43.39	118.741124	0.006	0.936	2.19	3.126	F	F	18.63	276.63	152	456.71977904101	54.231419916361	0.45072332693459	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	51.75	37.28	44.515	118.58994725	0.0012	0.8712	2.18	3.0512	F	F	19.75	274.75	152	456.66555698724	54.155944314009	0.49302728433231	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.5	34.57	46.035	119.65254666667	0.0015	1.1015	2.18	3.2815	T	F	25.5	271.5	152	457.04623514786	54.686745979854	0.70144066178475	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.37	34.97	46.17	121.76734666667	0.0016	1.0516	2.2	3.2516	T	F	25.37	291.37	152	457.80081564065	55.745190622398	0.69714364740575	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.83	36.38	47.105	121.52938266667	0.0022	1.0222	2.19	3.2122	F	F	25.83	293.83	152	457.71611009575	55.625956296524	0.71222200932133	90	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-05-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	56.89	37.17	47.03	119.248252	0.0273	1.2373	2.18	3.4173	T	F	24.89	292.89	152	456.90151693259	54.484707230359	0.68104381343932	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	56.9	37.2	47.05	118.92178266667	0.0273	1.0273	2.17	3.1973	F	F	24.9	286.9	152	456.78454797293	54.321632739528	0.68138287509624	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	56.32	36.7	46.51	118.13760341667	0.0274	1.0574	2.17	3.2274	T	F	24.32	292.32	152	456.50319194562	53.930193048514	0.66147445091047	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.03	37.11	47.07	118.78493466667	0.0048	0.8848	2.17	3.0548	F	F	25.03	280.03	152	456.73548857391	54.2532951702	0.68577678736775	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.04	37.12	47.08	120.84463066667	0.0048	1.2648	2.18	3.4448	T	F	25.04	294.04	152	457.47208029499	55.28304458356	0.68611370399923	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	55.95	36.3	46.125	120.874916	0.005	1.075	2.18	3.255	T	F	23.95	289.95	152	457.48288226166	55.298204964816	0.64852989389882	90	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.06	38.66	47.86	118.31919466667	0.0073	0.6073	2.17	2.7773	F	F	25.06	291.06	152	456.568395022	54.020804809256	0.68678707212431	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-27 07:59:12	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.07	38.68	47.875	117.997536	0.0073	0.6273	2.18	2.8073	F	F	25.07	292.07	152	456.45287807854	53.860314913376	0.68712352315504	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-27 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.36	37.67	47.515	117.51466983333	0.0058	0.7358	2.18	2.9158	F	F	25.36	296.36	152	456.27928957383	53.619510066056	0.69681196490987	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.3	38.57	47.935	119.308572	0.0025	0.6625	2.1	2.7625	F	F	25.3	297.3	152	456.92311805015	54.514844728351	0.69481847171293	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.31	38.6	47.955	120.241004	0.0025	0.5025	2.11	2.6125	F	F	25.31	311.31	152	457.25660942178	54.980993802511	0.69515112402823	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	58.01	39.07	48.54	120.196888	0.007	0.447	2.1	2.547	F	F	26.01	315.01	152	457.24084879428	54.95892709155	0.71802424969587	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-26 11:55:51	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	55.67	36.54	46.105	119.70166266667	0.0182	0.4382	2.1	2.5382	F	F	23.67	306.67	152	457.06380621253	54.711297548395	0.63861727171884	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	57.22	36.98	47.1	119.64393466667	0.0136	0.4236	2.11	2.5336	F	F	25.22	297.22	152	457.0431540113	54.682441258375	0.69215148076969	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	56.72	36.7	46.71	119.28019116667	0.0138	0.5638	2.12	2.6838	F	F	24.72	301.72	152	456.91295503871	54.500664623544	0.67525678889129	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	56.37	37.95	47.16	118.912932	0.0016	0.5216	1.86	2.3816	F	F	24.37	304.37	152	456.78137556407	54.317212651317	0.66320959167865	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	56.38	37.98	47.18	120.20627333333	0.0014	0.5214	2.06	2.5814	F	F	24.38	310.38	152	457.24420189218	54.963621512733	0.66355620508771	90	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	54.87	37.81	46.34	120.59724933333	0.004	0.354	2.09	2.444	F	F	22.87	308.87	152	457.38381488229	55.159229964391	0.60979951550137	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	50.92	38.62	44.77	119.570664	0.0039	0.3739	2.09	2.4639	F	F	18.92	297.92	152	457.01693705726	54.645818623183	0.46164287270042	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	40.42	38.68	39.55	119.69639733333	0.0033	0.3733	2.2	2.5733	F	F	8.42	284.42	152	457.06192266419	54.70866550115	0.13706092308533	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	245	-41	40.5	39.52	40.01	119.82836825	0.0034	0.4434	2.33	2.7734	F	F	8.5	291.5	152	457.10912453919	54.774640505718	0.13873614808898	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L