Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 31, 2020

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DAY 244 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/01/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.03°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.14°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.59°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.069 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.36 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.67 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 119 in SWE DAY: 151 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 54.21 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -42 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-01 04:02:17	OBSERVATION	2020	244	-42	35.02994	30.14006	32.585	118.83014291667	0.019999999999982	1.36	2.31	3.67	T	F	3.02994	236.02994	151	456.21431348396	54.212012071928	0.069205328609794	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-06-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-41	35.68	35.68	35.68	118.97988266667	0.0015	1.3415	2.31	3.6515	T	F	3.68	236.68	152	456.80537140811	54.35064949164	0.0774517659776	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-41	48.03	33.3	40.665	119.31776	0.0198	1.3598	2.31	3.6698	T	F	16.03	249.03	152	456.92640806256	54.519435494871	0.38299799762671	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-31 07:59:09	FORECAST	2020	244	-41	43.19	30.61	36.9	119.36029066667	0.0244	1.3644	2.31	3.6744	T	F	11.19	244.19	152	456.94163632016	54.540686528876	0.23020792731386	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-31 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-41	48.17	34.64	41.405	119.16673225	0.0564	1.3964	2.31	3.7064	T	F	16.17	249.17	152	456.87231874063	54.443981279802	0.38787022433783	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.74	32.07	40.405	123.08843333333	0.0817	0.0817	2.31	2.3917	F	F	16.74	220.74	151	457.73853613911	56.342319289657	0.40788222899886	89	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.35	32.52	40.435	124.14381066667	0.0874	0.7574	2.31	3.0674	F	F	16.35	248.35	151	458.11375800279	56.871987637293	0.39416043958503	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.48	34.05	41.265	124.04114666667	0.1141	0.7841	2.31	3.0941	F	F	16.48	248.48	151	458.07730167224	56.820433761397	0.39872070337511	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	47.31	34.05	40.68	122.96104266667	0.2211	0.8911	2.31	3.2011	F	F	15.31	247.31	151	457.69317643464	56.278430195822	0.3582474625174	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	46.94	35.25	41.095	122.31034533333	0.2083	0.9383	2.31	3.2483	F	F	14.94	248.94	151	457.46125502715	55.952244078991	0.34574897484346	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 03:55:51	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	47.25	34.67	40.96	121.770676	0.2553	0.9453	2.31	3.2553	F	F	15.25	248.25	151	457.26861519678	55.681908386095	0.35620991492796	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	45.9	34.29	40.095	121.39768533333	0.2975	1.3075	2.31	3.6175	T	F	13.9	244.9	151	457.13531841162	55.495169539287	0.31154310541364	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	46.21	32.43	39.32	123.57824933333	0.2877	1.3477	2.31	3.6577	T	F	14.21	263.21	151	457.91280716056	56.588063056214	0.32158706522694	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-29 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	46.36	34.3	40.33	123.47864666667	0.2398	1.2998	2.31	3.6098	T	F	14.36	265.36	151	457.87738721212	56.538080112222	0.32649483958226	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	46.94	34.42	40.68	120.9484	0.2633	1.2933	2.31	3.6033	T	F	14.94	266.94	151	456.97458821013	55.270345284675	0.34574897484346	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-29 07:55:42	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	47.85	34.55	41.2	120.23992	0.2954	0.9554	2.31	3.2654	T	F	15.85	266.85	151	456.72075908811	54.916067535094	0.37676089502835	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	49.2	32.63	40.915	120.19960725	0.3229	0.8929	2.31	3.2029	F	F	17.2	264.2	151	456.70630238644	54.895918175449	0.424212056474	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	49.5	34.29	41.895	121.28647866667	0.3309	1.1209	2.31	3.4309	T	F	17.5	254.5	151	457.09555170913	55.439509880998	0.43493434038864	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.1	33.45	41.775	123.420904	0.451	1.071	2.33	3.401	T	F	18.1	275.1	151	457.85684909723	56.509106218171	0.45651524833093	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.16	33.58	41.87	123.27292133333	0.4714	1.0314	2.33	3.3614	T	F	18.16	277.16	151	457.80420034749	56.434861175506	0.45868149002552	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.45	34.01	42.23	120.94412133333	0.3972	1.2072	2.33	3.5372	T	F	18.45	277.45	151	456.97305665074	55.268204809632	0.46916781147184	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.77	35.18	41.975	120.621424	0.416	0.996	2.32	3.316	T	F	16.77	270.77	151	456.85749835648	55.106802016836	0.40894267900309	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	51.29	32.67	41.98	119.76344475	0.4234	1.0334	2.32	3.3534	T	F	19.29	277.29	151	456.54979388207	54.677976015219	0.49963690656999	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-05-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	49.78	33.78	41.78	120.51092533333	0.431	0.881	2.32	3.201	F	F	17.78	263.78	151	456.81790687946	55.05154866688	0.44498532431974	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	49.82	33.41	41.615	122.573792	0.4513	1.2613	2.33	3.5913	T	F	17.82	277.82	151	457.55519881504	56.084275768073	0.44642422613578	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.59	35.59	42.09	122.51748533333	0.3463	1.0663	2.33	3.3963	T	F	16.59	274.59	151	457.53512541587	56.056053017624	0.40259024224064	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-05-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	52.87	35.8	44.335	120.23722933333	0.1682	0.5982	2.32	2.9182	F	F	20.87	274.87	151	456.71979422447	54.914722639241	0.55681228199874	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-27 07:59:12	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	52.9	35.81	44.355	119.917976	0.1682	0.6282	2.32	2.9482	F	F	20.9	275.9	151	456.60526427609	54.755179122934	0.55789028727186	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-27 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.67	35.8	43.235	119.40640983333	0.1761	0.7261	2.33	3.0561	F	F	18.67	279.67	151	456.42154966451	54.499658616006	0.47713763898439	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	53.82	36.4	45.11	121.20922266667	0.1286	0.6586	2.25	2.9086	F	F	21.82	280.82	151	457.06791890734	55.40084715663	0.59070368911347	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	53.83	36.4	45.115	122.14460666667	0.1281	0.4981	2.26	2.7581	F	F	21.83	294.83	151	457.40212120999	55.869202183693	0.59105732099691	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	53.9	36.44	45.17	122.0924	0.1394	0.4394	2.25	2.6894	F	F	21.9	297.9	151	457.38348926282	55.843047924473	0.59353065416541	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 11:55:51	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	52.43	35.63	44.03	121.350792	0.137	0.417	2.25	2.667	F	F	20.43	292.43	151	457.11855106322	55.471698209414	0.54095734860846	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	54.68	34.78	44.73	121.44585733333	0.0873	0.4073	2.26	2.6673	F	F	22.68	280.68	151	457.1525408852	55.519282259915	0.62081728347955	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	51.03	33.59	42.31	120.99027383333	0.1847	0.5547	2.27	2.8247	F	F	19.03	286.03	151	456.98957617457	55.29129396034	0.49019746262376	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	53.91	36.06	44.985	120.65340933333	0.1456	0.5256	2	2.5256	F	F	21.91	288.91	151	456.86895657125	55.122797228884	0.59388368558273	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	53.92	36.09	45.005	121.71600266667	0.1456	0.5156	2.21	2.7256	F	F	21.92	294.92	151	457.24908432277	55.654530766761	0.59423664069862	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	53.66	37.09	45.375	121.72485866667	0.0661	0.3461	2.24	2.5861	F	F	21.66	294.66	151	457.25224812264	55.658965277744	0.58503572961332	89	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.75	40.92	44.835	120.218464	0.1202	0.3802	2.23	2.6102	F	F	16.75	287.75	151	456.7130648583	54.905343145997	0.40823563778222	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.65	40.97	44.81	120.03090266667	0.1202	0.3802	2.34	2.7202	F	F	16.65	284.65	151	456.64578656078	54.811605959821	0.40470495451772	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	48.42	41.08	44.75	120.00521491667	0.1454	0.4454	2.47	2.9154	F	F	16.42	292.42	151	456.63656986269	54.798769705181	0.39661420717047	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.18	37.69	43.935	122.57121066667	0.307	0.607	2.45	3.057	F	F	18.18	284.18	151	457.55427862917	56.082981877291	0.45940384656399	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.79	40.96	45.875	122.88968133333	0.3	0.51	2.4	2.91	F	F	18.79	310.79	151	457.66776055278	56.242645250872	0.48148887993225	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 15:59:13	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	61.19	46	53.595	122.418728	0.2946	0.3246	2.4	2.7246	F	F	29.19	321.19	151	457.49991136525	56.006557209447	0.8160004552945	89	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	55.42	44.21	49.815	121.93170266667	0.1454	0.5154	2.45	2.9654	F	F	23.42	309.42	151	457.32612275939	55.762552821997	0.64616204425561	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	47.18	44.27	45.725	122.19924133333	0.1345	0.5045	2.54	3.0445	F	F	15.18	300.18	151	457.42161703635	55.896574571309	0.35383795574439	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 03:56:10	FORECAST	2020	244	-42	50.61	49.89	50.25	122.29561866667	0.0351	0.0951	2.57	2.6651	F	F	18.61	304.61	151	457.45600171465	55.944864742473	0.47496300769382	89	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L