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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 26, 2020

[ Monday, May 25, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 27, 2020 ]

DAY 239 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/27/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.333
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 84 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 146
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -47

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-27 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020239-4746.5900838.8442.71504133.566005833330.0699999999999930.379999999999992.813.19FF14.59008205.59008146458.80153867854 61.280288991480.3326320207477784 2122125DRYL
2020-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2020239-4641.541.541.5135.948066666670.00360.31362.813.1236FF9.5200.5147460.1649926314562.5585410959270.16993183852877841122124DRYL
2020-05-26 11:55:50FORECAST2020239-4655.5342.2748.9135.779840.00620.31622.813.1262FF23.53214.53147460.1061264747462.473136235760.68564642099704843122126DRYL
2020-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020239-4650.0342.8946.46135.6594640.02340.33342.813.1434FF18.03209.03147460.0639888618662.4120341347020.46807163235136842122125DRYL
2020-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020239-4655.4442.8449.14135.150853833330.03310.34312.813.1531FF23.44214.44147459.8858076097962.1539595642960.68236533063776843122126DRYL
2020-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020239-4757.0242.5349.775134.923814666670.06270.07272.812.8827FF25.02216.02146459.2804399417661.9678689587270.73769715255672844121123.5DRYL
2020-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020239-4756.9241.6449.28136.042386666670.06480.28482.813.0948FF24.92220.92146459.6737231191362.5351103810780.73434651821475844122127DRYL
2020-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020239-4756.8842.5349.705135.979410666670.08740.30742.813.1174FF24.88220.88146459.6516108080962.5031551496680.73300022127798844122127DRYL
2020-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020239-4757.6442.7550.195135.014106666670.0760.2962.813.106FF25.64221.64146459.3122275392962.0136300822940.75797790732489844122127DRYL
2020-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020239-4757.3942.6550.02134.885202666670.080.412.813.22FF25.39218.39146459.266844233861.9483013625570.74990378874681844122127DRYL
2020-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2020239-4757.642.750.15135.099938916670.07760.53762.813.3476FF25.6218.6146459.3424383088362.0571353573560.756695606796248441231210.5DRYL
2020-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020239-4754.3242.0448.18137.3090160.0890.5192.813.329FF22.32212.32146460.1177154222163.1783107487910.64040376140137843123129DRYL
2020-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2020239-4758.9843.2551.115138.1874920.0490.4692.813.279FF26.98230.98146460.4248102927263.6249497889260.79875471904396844122127DRYL
2020-05-24 15:59:13FORECAST2020239-4758.6843.8551.265138.160760.06360.46362.813.2736FF26.68230.68146460.4154755094163.6113520121410.79000105807969844122127DRYL
2020-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2020239-4759.8344.552.165136.6419560.06360.52362.813.3336FF27.83227.83146459.8840685514762.839458660110.822343909582038441231210.5DRYL
2020-05-24 08:00:01FORECAST2020239-4760.2844.0952.185136.5238760.05430.61432.813.4243FF28.28227.28146459.842668163562.7795034078620.83409657230758441231210.5DRYL
2020-05-24 03:56:10FORECAST2020239-4760.0344.0352.03136.355666666670.05090.64092.813.4509TF28.03228.03146459.7836703302962.6941088903330.827630582870598441231210.5DRYL
2020-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020239-4761.9243.9752.945135.973929333330.02360.38362.813.1936FF29.92235.92146459.6496860195162.5003739249060.87258734056374845122128DRYL
2020-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2020239-4762.1242.2252.17137.219601333330.01580.32582.823.1458FF30.12247.12146460.086419685663.1328750881390.8768184972173845122128DRYL
2020-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2020239-4762.543.5653.03137.116937333330.00720.33722.823.1572FF30.5246.5146460.0504778263363.0807125382830.88458500539301845122128DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020239-4758.0543.7950.92136.402334666670.00990.25992.823.0799FF26.05242.05146459.8000412166962.7177991017860.7709081093603844122127DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020239-4758.5443.5451.04136.502046666670.01050.30052.833.1305FF26.54237.54146459.8350131545162.7684204245840.78584076117445844122127DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020239-4764.2743.1653.715136.285319166670.00640.19642.833.0264FF32.27244.27146459.7589891335162.6584005738040.91619718682833845122128DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020239-4755.7244.1249.92130.350408602480.11510.27512.292.5651FF23.72254.72146457.6607834415859.6562701229420.69252499867637843122126DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020239-4755.7443.5649.65130.537033333330.11780.38782.292.6778FF23.74253.74146457.7272448374559.7503566169210.69324519622075843122126DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020239-4757.0244.5150.765130.339030666670.10220.47222.32.7722FF25.02255.02146457.6567304756959.6505346282770.73769715255672844122127DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020239-4758.1744.5451.355129.802750666670.01960.38962.292.6796FF26.17262.17146457.4655677711259.380289031980.77461805274853844122127DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020239-4758.1944.5651.375129.967819782080.01960.32962.332.6596FF26.19256.19146457.5244361534759.4634534638920.77523305839219844122127DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020239-4750.144.9647.53130.051617247570.1310.2912.382.671FF18.1249.1146457.5543112897959.5056781618360.47092521437993842122125DRYL
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020239-4762.1844.3153.245130.325771829840.0220.1422.492.632FF30.18260.18146457.6520073610959.643851088810.87806847928067845122128DRYL
2020-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020239-4762.1944.3253.255129.563277885950.0220.1722.93.072FF30.19267.19146457.3801210178559.2596677189450.87827594299964845122128DRYL
2020-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2020239-4762.2144.353.255129.526077190770.01530.08532.912.9953FF30.21269.21146457.3668427000859.240932972070.87869012830542845121124DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020239-4762.1543.652.875129.581428810680.04490.09492.923.0149FF30.15268.15146457.3865993055159.2688090568650.87744460293667845122128DRYL
2020-05-21 08:01:59FORECAST2020239-4762.1643.6352.895130.343525123330.04490.074933.0749FF30.16263.16146457.6583314724959.6528002261860.87765280932555845121124DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020239-4761.6943.6652.675130.820997574450.05830.19833.073.2683FF29.69262.69146457.8283106723459.8935563199820.86759819231081845122128DRYL
2020-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2020239-4755.7936.946.345132.437391564580.00350.13352.742.8735FF23.79248.79146458.4022157756160.7095937447480.69504242772287843122126DRYL
2020-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020239-4755.8236.9146.365132.95245403160.00350.12352.832.9535FF23.82266.82146458.5845956347260.9699473707260.69611851840033843122126DRYL
2020-05-20 15:56:22FORECAST2020239-4757.7539.448.575132.559180859530.00290.10292.762.8629FF25.75270.75146458.4453620171860.7711416578460.761485286271844122127DRYL
2020-05-20 12:00:01FORECAST2020239-4749.1135.5442.325132.746606067080.09910.35912.843.1991FF17.11258.11146458.5117349959160.8658766626380.43077427690336842122125DRYL
2020-05-20 08:01:58FORECAST2020239-4749.1535.5742.36132.945609685090.09910.35912.893.2491FF17.15254.15146458.5821736654960.9664866686710.43238557023895842122125DRYL
2020-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2020239-4752.6635.3844.02132.97548057690.06290.41292.873.2829FF20.66258.66146458.5927435957160.981590468720.5751158742575843122126DRYL
2020-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2020239-4753.6637.1645.41131.90157242370.1630.3632.853.213FF21.66263.66146458.2122327427760.4389140025470.61481778316942843122126DRYL
2020-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020239-4747.9136.9142.41134.747995975180.19270.69272.923.6127TF15.91256.91146459.2185214664861.8787754822940.3830866146786842123127.5DRYL
2020-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020239-4743.336.1139.705134.896628592130.18670.81672.853.6667TF11.3254.3146459.2708675661661.9540916452570.22068529883344841123126DRYL
2020-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2020239-4739.936.4838.19134.164336390350.17130.88132.913.7913TF7.9257.9146459.0127743481661.5831442651140.13166624800521841123126DRYL
2020-05-19 07:56:25FORECAST2020239-4739.9436.4938.215134.573539570290.15330.86332.873.7333TF7.94241.94146459.1570554137861.7903901657030.13254408219903841123126DRYL
2020-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2020239-4739.1938.1138.65134.751853803620.09710.69713.013.7071TF7.19251.19146459.2198803835861.8807301851660.11674788923537841123126DRYL