Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 26, 2020

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DAY 239 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/27/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.59°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.72°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.333 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 84 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 134 in SWE DAY: 146 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.80 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 61.28 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -47 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-27 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	239	-47	46.59008	38.84	42.71504	133.56600583333	0.069999999999993	0.37999999999999	2.81	3.19	F	F	14.59008	205.59008	146	458.80153867854	61.28028899148	0.33263202074777	84	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	239	-46	41.5	41.5	41.5	135.94806666667	0.0036	0.3136	2.81	3.1236	F	F	9.5	200.5	147	460.16499263145	62.558541095927	0.16993183852877	84	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-26 11:55:50	FORECAST	2020	239	-46	55.53	42.27	48.9	135.77984	0.0062	0.3162	2.81	3.1262	F	F	23.53	214.53	147	460.10612647474	62.47313623576	0.68564642099704	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-46	50.03	42.89	46.46	135.659464	0.0234	0.3334	2.81	3.1434	F	F	18.03	209.03	147	460.06398886186	62.412034134702	0.46807163235136	84	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	239	-46	55.44	42.84	49.14	135.15085383333	0.0331	0.3431	2.81	3.1531	F	F	23.44	214.44	147	459.88580760979	62.153959564296	0.68236533063776	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	57.02	42.53	49.775	134.92381466667	0.0627	0.0727	2.81	2.8827	F	F	25.02	216.02	146	459.28043994176	61.967868958727	0.73769715255672	84	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	56.92	41.64	49.28	136.04238666667	0.0648	0.2848	2.81	3.0948	F	F	24.92	220.92	146	459.67372311913	62.535110381078	0.73434651821475	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	56.88	42.53	49.705	135.97941066667	0.0874	0.3074	2.81	3.1174	F	F	24.88	220.88	146	459.65161080809	62.503155149668	0.73300022127798	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	57.64	42.75	50.195	135.01410666667	0.076	0.296	2.81	3.106	F	F	25.64	221.64	146	459.31222753929	62.013630082294	0.75797790732489	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	57.39	42.65	50.02	134.88520266667	0.08	0.41	2.81	3.22	F	F	25.39	218.39	146	459.2668442338	61.948301362557	0.74990378874681	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	57.6	42.7	50.15	135.09993891667	0.0776	0.5376	2.81	3.3476	F	F	25.6	218.6	146	459.34243830883	62.057135357356	0.75669560679624	84	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	54.32	42.04	48.18	137.309016	0.089	0.519	2.81	3.329	F	F	22.32	212.32	146	460.11771542221	63.178310748791	0.64040376140137	84	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	58.98	43.25	51.115	138.187492	0.049	0.469	2.81	3.279	F	F	26.98	230.98	146	460.42481029272	63.624949788926	0.79875471904396	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-24 15:59:13	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	58.68	43.85	51.265	138.16076	0.0636	0.4636	2.81	3.2736	F	F	26.68	230.68	146	460.41547550941	63.611352012141	0.79000105807969	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	59.83	44.5	52.165	136.641956	0.0636	0.5236	2.81	3.3336	F	F	27.83	227.83	146	459.88406855147	62.83945866011	0.82234390958203	84	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	60.28	44.09	52.185	136.523876	0.0543	0.6143	2.81	3.4243	F	F	28.28	227.28	146	459.8426681635	62.779503407862	0.8340965723075	84	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 03:56:10	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	60.03	44.03	52.03	136.35566666667	0.0509	0.6409	2.81	3.4509	T	F	28.03	228.03	146	459.78367033029	62.694108890333	0.82763058287059	84	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	61.92	43.97	52.945	135.97392933333	0.0236	0.3836	2.81	3.1936	F	F	29.92	235.92	146	459.64968601951	62.500373924906	0.87258734056374	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-23 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.12	42.22	52.17	137.21960133333	0.0158	0.3258	2.82	3.1458	F	F	30.12	247.12	146	460.0864196856	63.132875088139	0.8768184972173	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.5	43.56	53.03	137.11693733333	0.0072	0.3372	2.82	3.1572	F	F	30.5	246.5	146	460.05047782633	63.080712538283	0.88458500539301	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-23 11:56:01	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	58.05	43.79	50.92	136.40233466667	0.0099	0.2599	2.82	3.0799	F	F	26.05	242.05	146	459.80004121669	62.717799101786	0.7709081093603	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	58.54	43.54	51.04	136.50204666667	0.0105	0.3005	2.83	3.1305	F	F	26.54	237.54	146	459.83501315451	62.768420424584	0.78584076117445	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	64.27	43.16	53.715	136.28531916667	0.0064	0.1964	2.83	3.0264	F	F	32.27	244.27	146	459.75898913351	62.658400573804	0.91619718682833	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-22 23:56:21	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	55.72	44.12	49.92	130.35040860248	0.1151	0.2751	2.29	2.5651	F	F	23.72	254.72	146	457.66078344158	59.656270122942	0.69252499867637	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	55.74	43.56	49.65	130.53703333333	0.1178	0.3878	2.29	2.6778	F	F	23.74	253.74	146	457.72724483745	59.750356616921	0.69324519622075	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	57.02	44.51	50.765	130.33903066667	0.1022	0.4722	2.3	2.7722	F	F	25.02	255.02	146	457.65673047569	59.650534628277	0.73769715255672	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	58.17	44.54	51.355	129.80275066667	0.0196	0.3896	2.29	2.6796	F	F	26.17	262.17	146	457.46556777112	59.38028903198	0.77461805274853	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	58.19	44.56	51.375	129.96781978208	0.0196	0.3296	2.33	2.6596	F	F	26.19	256.19	146	457.52443615347	59.463453463892	0.77523305839219	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 03:59:14	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	50.1	44.96	47.53	130.05161724757	0.131	0.291	2.38	2.671	F	F	18.1	249.1	146	457.55431128979	59.505678161836	0.47092521437993	84	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.18	44.31	53.245	130.32577182984	0.022	0.142	2.49	2.632	F	F	30.18	260.18	146	457.65200736109	59.64385108881	0.87806847928067	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.19	44.32	53.255	129.56327788595	0.022	0.172	2.9	3.072	F	F	30.19	267.19	146	457.38012101785	59.259667718945	0.87827594299964	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.21	44.3	53.255	129.52607719077	0.0153	0.0853	2.91	2.9953	F	F	30.21	269.21	146	457.36684270008	59.24093297207	0.87869012830542	84	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.15	43.6	52.875	129.58142881068	0.0449	0.0949	2.92	3.0149	F	F	30.15	268.15	146	457.38659930551	59.268809056865	0.87744460293667	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 08:01:59	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	62.16	43.63	52.895	130.34352512333	0.0449	0.0749	3	3.0749	F	F	30.16	263.16	146	457.65833147249	59.652800226186	0.87765280932555	84	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-05-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	61.69	43.66	52.675	130.82099757445	0.0583	0.1983	3.07	3.2683	F	F	29.69	262.69	146	457.82831067234	59.893556319982	0.86759819231081	84	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-05-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	55.79	36.9	46.345	132.43739156458	0.0035	0.1335	2.74	2.8735	F	F	23.79	248.79	146	458.40221577561	60.709593744748	0.69504242772287	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	55.82	36.91	46.365	132.9524540316	0.0035	0.1235	2.83	2.9535	F	F	23.82	266.82	146	458.58459563472	60.969947370726	0.69611851840033	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 15:56:22	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	57.75	39.4	48.575	132.55918085953	0.0029	0.1029	2.76	2.8629	F	F	25.75	270.75	146	458.44536201718	60.771141657846	0.761485286271	84	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	49.11	35.54	42.325	132.74660606708	0.0991	0.3591	2.84	3.1991	F	F	17.11	258.11	146	458.51173499591	60.865876662638	0.43077427690336	84	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 08:01:58	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	49.15	35.57	42.36	132.94560968509	0.0991	0.3591	2.89	3.2491	F	F	17.15	254.15	146	458.58217366549	60.966486668671	0.43238557023895	84	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	52.66	35.38	44.02	132.9754805769	0.0629	0.4129	2.87	3.2829	F	F	20.66	258.66	146	458.59274359571	60.98159046872	0.5751158742575	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	53.66	37.16	45.41	131.9015724237	0.163	0.363	2.85	3.213	F	F	21.66	263.66	146	458.21223274277	60.438914002547	0.61481778316942	84	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	47.91	36.91	42.41	134.74799597518	0.1927	0.6927	2.92	3.6127	T	F	15.91	256.91	146	459.21852146648	61.878775482294	0.3830866146786	84	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	43.3	36.11	39.705	134.89662859213	0.1867	0.8167	2.85	3.6667	T	F	11.3	254.3	146	459.27086756616	61.954091645257	0.22068529883344	84	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	39.9	36.48	38.19	134.16433639035	0.1713	0.8813	2.91	3.7913	T	F	7.9	257.9	146	459.01277434816	61.583144265114	0.13166624800521	84	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 07:56:25	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	39.94	36.49	38.215	134.57353957029	0.1533	0.8633	2.87	3.7333	T	F	7.94	241.94	146	459.15705541378	61.790390165703	0.13254408219903	84	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	239	-47	39.19	38.11	38.65	134.75185380362	0.0971	0.6971	3.01	3.7071	T	F	7.19	251.19	146	459.21988038358	61.880730185166	0.11674788923537	84	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L