Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 25, 2020

[ Sunday, May 24, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 26, 2020 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/26/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.62°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.258 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 214 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.31 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.12 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 137 in SWE DAY: 145 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.42 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 62.86 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-26 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	238	-48	43.62008	40.15994	41.89001	136.8205925	0.31	0.31	2.81	3.12	F	F	11.62008	213.62008	145	459.42145732882	62.858315998943	0.25826892890083	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-47	43.82	43.82	43.82	136.935384	0.0115	0.0115	2.81	2.8215	F	F	11.82	213.82	146	459.98689448464	62.988482031221	0.2642276386635	85	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-47	49.03	43.18	46.105	137.02020933333	0.2181	0.2181	2.81	3.0281	F	F	17.03	219.03	146	460.01660553768	63.031571587582	0.43926042467816	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-47	45.64	41.54	43.59	136.87342933333	0.3312	0.3312	2.81	3.1412	F	F	13.64	215.64	146	459.96519010131	62.957012943124	0.32148635128465	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-47	46.19	42.68	44.435	137.11025091667	0.458	0.458	2.81	3.268	F	F	14.19	216.19	146	460.04813663932	63.077315448362	0.3397532896047	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.21	42.95	46.08	139.259304	0.4344	0.4344	2.81	3.2444	F	F	17.21	213.21	145	460.27658752133	64.097797225715	0.44577335633017	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.85	42.19	46.02	140.35092533333	0.4051	0.4151	2.81	3.2251	F	F	17.85	226.85	145	460.65764992655	64.65372742907	0.4690371352651	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 15:59:13	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.59	42.72	46.155	140.341632	0.3904	0.4004	2.81	3.2104	F	F	17.59	226.59	145	460.65441027349	64.64899172578	0.45956891274451	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	46.48	44.42	45.45	138.923852	0.4482	0.4582	2.81	3.2682	F	F	14.48	223.48	145	460.15927578644	63.927099125782	0.34954208811605	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	45.29	43.14	44.215	138.807576	0.5369	0.5569	2.81	3.3669	F	F	13.29	222.29	145	460.1185892898	63.867946051856	0.31007915431392	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 03:56:10	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	45.7	43.98	44.84	138.66249066667	0.57	0.59	2.81	3.4	F	F	13.7	222.7	145	460.06780517575	63.794147741216	0.32345927287082	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-05-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	51.13	42.8	46.965	138.39385866667	0.3488	0.3588	2.81	3.1688	F	F	19.13	229.13	145	459.97372669241	63.657538922249	0.51580323768732	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-23 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	50.37	42.12	46.245	139.565184	0.297	0.317	2.81	3.127	F	F	18.37	240.37	145	460.38347046889	64.253503766549	0.48802084938617	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.44	42.47	45.955	139.55266533333	0.3242	0.3442	2.81	3.1542	F	F	17.44	239.44	145	460.37909772944	64.247130151898	0.45411654173778	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-23 11:56:01	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	50.02	42.63	46.325	138.738624	0.2395	0.2595	2.81	3.0695	F	F	18.02	239.02	145	460.09445640483	63.832871791635	0.47523771560976	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	48.83	42.44	45.635	138.87365066667	0.2847	0.3147	2.81	3.1247	F	F	16.83	233.83	145	460.14171115587	63.901559252223	0.43204314334752	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.47	42.17	45.82	138.7870845	0.1803	0.2103	2.81	3.0203	F	F	17.47	235.47	145	460.11141779981	63.857522221597	0.45520635783392	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-22 23:56:21	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	52.57	42.92	47.745	132.43249793581	0.1517	0.2017	2.25	2.4517	F	F	20.57	253.57	145	457.86937520036	60.636785086095	0.56812444052152	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	51.9	42.6	47.25	132.606932	0.2581	0.3081	2.25	2.5581	F	F	19.9	252.9	145	457.93140378	60.724878521719	0.54387252664798	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	51.33	42.29	46.81	132.531984	0.3648	0.4248	2.25	2.6748	F	F	19.33	253.33	145	457.90475571309	60.687025757691	0.52310715457573	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	55.24	42.9	49.07	132.01604	0.355	0.405	2.25	2.655	F	F	23.24	259.24	145	457.72117199228	60.42653655058	0.66140930889423	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	55.24	42.31	48.775	132.18438911541	0.3028	0.3528	2.29	2.6428	F	F	23.24	253.24	145	457.78110059194	60.511515130326	0.66140930889423	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-22 03:59:14	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	57.09	42.88	49.985	132.0631865809	0.1565	0.1865	2.35	2.5365	F	F	25.09	254.09	145	457.73795772644	60.450333316388	0.72102110744731	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.03	42.24	47.635	132.74324116317	0.1118	0.1518	2.46	2.6118	F	F	21.03	253.03	145	457.97985605746	60.793730480511	0.58463319908425	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.05	41.8	47.425	131.98386321928	0.1124	0.1824	2.87	3.0524	F	F	21.05	260.05	145	457.70971484544	60.410296398297	0.58534781397268	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	54.27	41.45	47.86	131.90533452411	0.0268	0.0968	2.88	2.9768	F	F	22.27	262.27	145	457.68174929765	60.370664246685	0.62832073836338	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.36	41.67	47.515	132.04197547734	0.0089	0.0789	2.89	2.9689	F	F	21.36	261.36	145	457.73040612436	60.439627060708	0.59638683812591	85	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-05-21 08:01:59	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.39	41.69	47.54	132.80680512333	0.0089	0.0589	2.97	3.0289	F	F	21.39	256.39	145	458.00244468519	60.825841417315	0.59745121786479	85	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-05-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	57.46	41.89	49.675	133.14925090779	0.0872	0.1672	3.04	3.2072	F	F	25.46	256.46	145	458.12407639245	60.998877594476	0.73230280302812	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	55.58	39.65	47.615	134.05295556458	0.0219	0.1519	2.72	2.8719	F	F	23.58	247.58	145	458.44455146972	61.455847086996	0.67273389657145	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	55.6	39.69	47.645	134.57189936494	0.0219	0.1419	2.81	2.9519	F	F	23.6	265.6	145	458.62824900839	61.718474571475	0.67339525411243	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 15:56:22	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	55.92	39.74	47.83	134.34639819286	0.0297	0.1197	2.74	2.8597	F	F	23.92	267.92	145	458.54845506323	61.604333334646	0.68390178911349	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.4	40.03	46.715	133.86257140042	0.1943	0.2843	2.82	3.1043	F	F	21.4	264.4	145	458.3770978847	61.359536993906	0.5978058510984	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 08:01:58	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.44	40.07	46.755	134.06627635175	0.1943	0.2743	2.88	3.1543	F	F	21.44	260.44	145	458.44926983702	61.462586503229	0.59922357651752	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.49	39.01	46.25	134.23439924357	0.2837	0.3637	2.86	3.2237	F	F	21.49	261.49	145	458.50880706842	61.547654264715	0.60099389547245	85	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	56.93	40.71	48.82	133.54627375704	0.0767	0.2067	2.84	3.0467	F	F	24.93	264.93	145	458.264960702	61.199577895166	0.71607199697448	85	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	54.45	38.7	46.575	135.60976130852	0.1097	0.4997	2.92	3.4197	F	F	22.45	264.45	145	458.99490942601	62.244190109085	0.63454169160014	85	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	54.85	38.66	46.755	135.41842192546	0.19	0.64	2.84	3.48	T	F	22.85	265.85	145	458.92738486239	62.147222236444	0.64823793676609	85	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	52.7	38.33	45.515	134.56526172368	0.4079	0.7179	2.9	3.6179	T	F	20.7	272.7	145	458.62590092136	61.715114390742	0.57280334351303	85	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-19 07:56:25	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	52.74	38.37	45.555	134.83566623696	0.4079	0.7179	2.86	3.5779	T	F	20.74	256.74	145	458.72152535509	61.852022488486	0.57424098002609	85	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	53.07	39.52	46.295	134.89857913696	0.3109	0.6209	2.99	3.6109	T	F	21.07	267.07	145	458.74376412668	61.883881968629	0.58606214655809	85	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-05-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.17	36.01	42.59	136.11862105133	0.5299	0.9399	3.16	4.0999	T	F	17.17	253.17	145	459.17432880093	62.502176458552	0.44432470955927	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.21	36.02	42.615	137.46352389672	0.3461	0.7561	3.42	4.1761	T	F	17.21	261.21	145	459.6474145746	63.184753357443	0.44577335633017	85	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-05-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	49.75	37.23	43.49	137.26142860439	0.1099	0.4499	3.4	3.8499	T	F	17.75	265.75	145	459.5764282572	63.082117095484	0.46539314307254	85	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-05-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	39.4	35.99	37.695	137.01572656738	0.0478	1.1178	3.35	4.4678	T	F	7.4	243.4	145	459.49007590079	62.957366600047	0.15018579874145	85	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	39.42	36.02	37.72	136.51883994898	0.0369	1.1069	3.63	4.7369	T	F	7.42	249.42	145	459.31527956004	62.705189136379	0.15061430626174	85	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-05-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	238	-48	39.93	39.09	39.51	136.51357266206	0.0568	0.7968	3.53	4.3268	T	F	7.93	255.93	145	459.31342543531	62.702516677824	0.161815519832	85	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L