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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 25, 2020

[ Sunday, May 24, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 26, 2020 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/26/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.258
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 214

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.31 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 145
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-26 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020238-4843.6200840.1599441.89001136.82059250.310.312.813.12FF11.62008213.62008145459.42145732882 62.8583159989430.2582689289008385 2122125DRYL
2020-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020238-4743.8243.8243.82136.9353840.01150.01152.812.8215FF11.82213.82146459.9868944846462.9884820312210.2642276386635852121122.5DRYL
2020-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020238-4749.0343.1846.105137.020209333330.21810.21812.813.0281FF17.03219.03146460.0166055376863.0315715875820.43926042467816852122125DRYL
2020-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020238-4745.6441.5443.59136.873429333330.33120.33122.813.1412FF13.64215.64146459.9651901013162.9570129431240.32148635128465852122125DRYL
2020-05-25 04:00:03FORECAST2020238-4746.1942.6844.435137.110250916670.4580.4582.813.268FF14.19216.19146460.0481366393263.0773154483620.3397532896047852122125DRYL
2020-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020238-4849.2142.9546.08139.2593040.43440.43442.813.2444FF17.21213.21145460.2765875213364.0977972257150.44577335633017852122125DRYL
2020-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2020238-4849.8542.1946.02140.350925333330.40510.41512.813.2251FF17.85226.85145460.6576499265564.653727429070.4690371352651852122125DRYL
2020-05-24 15:59:13FORECAST2020238-4849.5942.7246.155140.3416320.39040.40042.813.2104FF17.59226.59145460.6544102734964.648991725780.45956891274451852122125DRYL
2020-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2020238-4846.4844.4245.45138.9238520.44820.45822.813.2682FF14.48223.48145460.1592757864463.9270991257820.34954208811605852122125DRYL
2020-05-24 08:00:01FORECAST2020238-4845.2943.1444.215138.8075760.53690.55692.813.3669FF13.29222.29145460.118589289863.8679460518560.31007915431392852123127.5DRYL
2020-05-24 03:56:10FORECAST2020238-4845.743.9844.84138.662490666670.570.592.813.4FF13.7222.7145460.0678051757563.7941477412160.32345927287082852123127.5DRYL
2020-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020238-4851.1342.846.965138.393858666670.34880.35882.813.1688FF19.13229.13145459.9737266924163.6575389222490.51580323768732853122126DRYL
2020-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2020238-4850.3742.1246.245139.5651840.2970.3172.813.127FF18.37240.37145460.3834704688964.2535037665490.48802084938617852122125DRYL
2020-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2020238-4849.4442.4745.955139.552665333330.32420.34422.813.1542FF17.44239.44145460.3790977294464.2471301518980.45411654173778852122125DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020238-4850.0242.6346.325138.7386240.23950.25952.813.0695FF18.02239.02145460.0944564048363.8328717916350.47523771560976852122125DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020238-4848.8342.4445.635138.873650666670.28470.31472.813.1247FF16.83233.83145460.1417111558763.9015592522230.43204314334752852122125DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020238-4849.4742.1745.82138.78708450.18030.21032.813.0203FF17.47235.47145460.1114177998163.8575222215970.45520635783392852122125DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020238-4852.5742.9247.745132.432497935810.15170.20172.252.4517FF20.57253.57145457.8693752003660.6367850860950.56812444052152853122126DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020238-4851.942.647.25132.6069320.25810.30812.252.5581FF19.9252.9145457.9314037860.7248785217190.54387252664798853122126DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020238-4851.3342.2946.81132.5319840.36480.42482.252.6748FF19.33253.33145457.9047557130960.6870257576910.52310715457573853122126DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020238-4855.2442.949.07132.016040.3550.4052.252.655FF23.24259.24145457.7211719922860.426536550580.66140930889423853122126DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020238-4855.2442.3148.775132.184389115410.30280.35282.292.6428FF23.24253.24145457.7811005919460.5115151303260.66140930889423853122126DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020238-4857.0942.8849.985132.06318658090.15650.18652.352.5365FF25.09254.09145457.7379577264460.4503333163880.72102110744731854122127DRYL
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020238-4853.0342.2447.635132.743241163170.11180.15182.462.6118FF21.03253.03145457.9798560574660.7937304805110.58463319908425853122126DRYL
2020-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020238-4853.0541.847.425131.983863219280.11240.18242.873.0524FF21.05260.05145457.7097148454460.4102963982970.58534781397268853122126DRYL
2020-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2020238-4854.2741.4547.86131.905334524110.02680.09682.882.9768FF22.27262.27145457.6817492976560.3706642466850.62832073836338853122126DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020238-4853.3641.6747.515132.041975477340.00890.07892.892.9689FF21.36261.36145457.7304061243660.4396270607080.59638683812591853121123DRYL
2020-05-21 08:01:59FORECAST2020238-4853.3941.6947.54132.806805123330.00890.05892.973.0289FF21.39256.39145458.0024446851960.8258414173150.59745121786479853121123DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020238-4857.4641.8949.675133.149250907790.08720.16723.043.2072FF25.46256.46145458.1240763924560.9988775944760.73230280302812854122127DRYL
2020-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2020238-4855.5839.6547.615134.052955564580.02190.15192.722.8719FF23.58247.58145458.4445514697261.4558470869960.67273389657145853122126DRYL
2020-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020238-4855.639.6947.645134.571899364940.02190.14192.812.9519FF23.6265.6145458.6282490083961.7184745714750.67339525411243853122126DRYL
2020-05-20 15:56:22FORECAST2020238-4855.9239.7447.83134.346398192860.02970.11972.742.8597FF23.92267.92145458.5484550632361.6043333346460.68390178911349853122126DRYL
2020-05-20 12:00:01FORECAST2020238-4853.440.0346.715133.862571400420.19430.28432.823.1043FF21.4264.4145458.377097884761.3595369939060.5978058510984853122126DRYL
2020-05-20 08:01:58FORECAST2020238-4853.4440.0746.755134.066276351750.19430.27432.883.1543FF21.44260.44145458.4492698370261.4625865032290.59922357651752853122126DRYL
2020-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2020238-4853.4939.0146.25134.234399243570.28370.36372.863.2237FF21.49261.49145458.5088070684261.5476542647150.60099389547245853122126DRYL
2020-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2020238-4856.9340.7148.82133.546273757040.07670.20672.843.0467FF24.93264.93145458.26496070261.1995778951660.71607199697448854122127DRYL
2020-05-19 20:00:03FORECAST2020238-4854.4538.746.575135.609761308520.10970.49972.923.4197FF22.45264.45145458.9949094260162.2441901090850.63454169160014853123129DRYL
2020-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2020238-4854.8538.6646.755135.418421925460.190.642.843.48TF22.85265.85145458.9273848623962.1472222364440.64823793676609853123129DRYL
2020-05-19 12:00:04FORECAST2020238-4852.738.3345.515134.565261723680.40790.71792.93.6179TF20.7272.7145458.6259009213661.7151143907420.57280334351303853123129DRYL
2020-05-19 07:56:25FORECAST2020238-4852.7438.3745.555134.835666236960.40790.71792.863.5779TF20.74256.74145458.7215253550961.8520224884860.57424098002609853123129DRYL
2020-05-19 04:00:03FORECAST2020238-4853.0739.5246.295134.898579136960.31090.62092.993.6109TF21.07267.07145458.7437641266861.8838819686290.58606214655809853123129DRYL
2020-05-19 00:00:03FORECAST2020238-4849.1736.0142.59136.118621051330.52990.93993.164.0999TF17.17253.17145459.1743288009362.5021764585520.44432470955927852123127.5WETL
2020-05-18 20:00:02FORECAST2020238-4849.2136.0242.615137.463523896720.34610.75613.424.1761TF17.21261.21145459.647414574663.1847533574430.44577335633017852123127.5WETL
2020-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2020238-4849.7537.2343.49137.261428604390.10990.44993.43.8499TF17.75265.75145459.576428257263.0821170954840.46539314307254852122125DRYL
2020-05-18 12:00:02FORECAST2020238-4839.435.9937.695137.015726567380.04781.11783.354.4678TF7.4243.4145459.4900759007962.9573666000470.15018579874145851124128WETL
2020-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2020238-4839.4236.0237.72136.518839948980.03691.10693.634.7369TF7.42249.42145459.3152795600462.7051891363790.15061430626174851124128WETL
2020-05-18 04:00:03FORECAST2020238-4839.9339.0939.51136.513572662060.05680.79683.534.3268TF7.93255.93145459.3134254353162.7025166778240.161815519832851123126WETL