Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 28, 2020

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DAY 211 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/29/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.91°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.42°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.67°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.695 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 187 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.34 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.07 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 168 in SWE DAY: 118 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 76.55 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -75 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-29 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	211	-75	49.91	29.42006	39.66503	167.83266958333	0	0.73	2.34	3.07	F	F	17.91	186.91	118	456.08197647546	76.545455660719	0.69520634606124	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-74	44.35	44.35	44.35	167.93248666667	0.0002	0.7302	2.34	3.0702	F	F	12.35	181.35	119	456.65567730913	76.687323440973	0.50883821850879	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-74	51.66	44.77	48.215	167.84762666667	0.0104	0.7404	2.34	3.0804	F	F	19.66	188.66	119	456.62522960504	76.643461065328	0.74679369203497	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	211	-74	55.05	33.75	44.4	167.643556	0.0158	0.7458	2.34	3.0858	F	F	23.05	192.05	119	456.5519823303	76.5379978167	0.8320732996907	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	211	-74	54.02	33.45	43.735	167.95611846377	0.0163	0.7463	2.34	3.0863	F	F	22.02	191.02	119	456.66415521191	76.699538950928	0.80835349013786	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	56.19	32.61	44.4	168.521376	0.0093	0.0493	2.34	2.3893	F	F	24.19	186.19	118	456.32984390954	76.901333205501	0.85602502631832	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	55.35	30.26	42.805	168.64853066667	0.0074	0.1174	2.34	2.4574	F	F	23.35	195.35	118	456.3755598439	76.967067599851	0.83861136459477	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 16:01:19	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	55.04	30.74	42.89	168.68056533333	0.0053	0.1153	2.34	2.4553	F	F	23.04	195.04	118	456.38707494361	76.983629812314	0.83185247501868	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	54.65	31.46	43.055	168.32479466667	0.0041	0.1141	2.34	2.4541	F	F	22.65	194.65	118	456.25913793156	76.799725707121	0.82309517039645	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	54.95	32.22	43.585	168.221092	0.0068	0.4068	2.34	2.7468	F	F	22.95	194.95	118	456.22182413829	76.746133450776	0.82985667189159	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	54.44	32.13	43.285	167.83775416667	0.0075	0.6175	2.34	2.9575	F	F	22.44	193.44	118	456.08380802095	76.548082050018	0.81826273034119	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.14	31.81	42.475	169.34991165446	0.0233	0.9033	2.34	3.2433	F	F	21.14	180.14	118	456.62746227536	77.329820395333	0.78654719044909	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-26 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.3	31.98	42.64	170.05802133333	0.0282	0.9682	2.34	3.3082	T	F	21.3	199.3	118	456.88132649337	77.696334367612	0.79061593308586	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.57	32.03	42.8	170.18167733333	0.041	0.831	2.34	3.171	F	F	21.57	195.57	118	456.92561156327	77.760366992397	0.79737769214354	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.28	31.66	42.47	169.351892	0.0608	0.9408	2.34	3.2808	T	F	21.28	198.28	118	456.62817288541	77.330845018648	0.79010984529997	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	52.42	31.98	42.2	169.3929012876	0.0713	0.9113	2.34	3.2513	F	F	20.42	194.42	118	456.64288749979	77.352063565934	0.76767789778105	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	52.01	32.17	42.09	168.92645446162	0.1779	0.9979	2.34	3.3379	T	F	20.01	197.01	118	456.4754304332	77.110776011922	0.75653204175244	91	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	49.59	33.69	41.64	169.40600219259	0.339	1.169	1.68	2.849	F	F	17.59	188.59	118	456.64758793544	77.358842283031	0.68529092032066	91	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	43.77	33.83	38.8	169.49400489235	0.4067	1.3067	1.85	3.1567	T	F	11.77	195.77	118	456.67915811469	77.404379459723	0.4885109644762	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	44.3	34.26	39.28	169.44780164287	0.4467	1.3267	1.85	3.1767	T	F	12.3	195.3	118	456.66258399322	77.380470950203	0.50708602020502	91	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-25 11:57:34	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	46.57	34.06	40.315	168.96345069792	0.182	1.072	1.85	2.922	F	F	14.57	200.57	118	456.48871953786	77.129909257793	0.58597559424739	91	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	46.59	33.74	40.165	168.82899751435	0.0967	0.9567	2.31	3.2667	T	F	14.59	200.59	118	456.44041777053	77.060378157228	0.58666014143571	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	51.29	33.35	42.32	169.27131811285	0.0474	0.8974	2.29	3.1874	F	F	19.29	203.29	118	456.5992575632	77.289158177072	0.7362806953772	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 23:57:48	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	49.94	33.18	41.56	168.66683339073	0.1956	0.9456	2.24	3.1856	F	F	17.94	205.94	118	456.38213900922	76.976530202775	0.69612876605818	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	48.49	33.51	41	171.03880560446	0.1958	0.9058	2.18	3.0858	F	F	16.49	196.49	118	457.23219387106	78.204448323613	0.65021351601145	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	48.69	35.44	42.065	170.64134164323	0.2092	0.9192	2.17	3.0892	F	F	16.69	201.69	118	457.09010978809	77.998469586092	0.65669850298676	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	48.16	36.7	42.43	169.93787108567	0.1137	0.9037	2.37	3.2737	F	F	16.16	203.16	118	456.83828361725	77.634125348345	0.6394176910979	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	49.39	34.68	42.035	170.31768237688	0.0303	0.8203	2.35	3.1703	F	F	17.39	194.39	118	456.97430315118	77.8308042185	0.67902467416368	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	51.28	34.66	42.97	169.85170553053	0.0403	0.7803	2.34	3.1203	F	F	19.28	208.28	118	456.80740739938	77.589517245763	0.73599350565301	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	51.61	32.66	42.135	171.17176557311	0.0467	0.6767	1.94	2.6167	F	F	19.61	199.61	118	457.27969194533	78.273372231009	0.74538599062012	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	51.61	32.66	42.135	171.39623920101	0.0467	0.6867	2.08	2.7667	F	F	19.61	206.61	118	457.35984559163	78.38975749596	0.74538599062012	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	52.14	32.72	42.43	170.40000393557	0.0418	0.7018	2.08	2.7818	F	F	20.14	207.14	118	457.00376717713	77.873443725554	0.76009700508049	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.37	31.2	42.285	170.53200029499	0.0202	0.7302	2.15	2.8802	F	F	21.37	201.37	118	457.05099764526	77.941820865269	0.79238158748947	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 08:01:13	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.37	31.2	42.285	170.65094446461	0.0202	0.7302	2.25	2.9802	F	F	21.37	193.37	118	457.09354426365	78.003445037269	0.79238158748947	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.83	31.75	42.79	170.49706322538	0.0157	0.7657	2.29	3.0557	F	F	21.83	201.83	118	457.03849812811	77.92372171178	0.80376430072615	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	52.69	33.25	42.97	171.42537494436	0.0701	0.9301	1.58	2.5101	F	F	20.69	196.69	118	457.37024585114	78.404865883424	0.77486026098443	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-22 19:57:50	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	52.69	33.25	42.97	173.12524479131	0.0701	0.9301	2.86	3.7901	T	F	20.69	202.69	118	457.97569885845	79.287154973341	0.77486026098443	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.25	34.67	43.96	171.28980366378	0.2409	1.0609	3.06	4.1209	T	F	21.25	205.25	118	457.32184594957	78.334569203861	0.78934936972801	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-04-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	47.06	35.07	41.065	174.82061215312	0.1873	0.9273	2.84	3.7673	T	F	15.06	196.06	118	458.57695002244	80.168703122233	0.60266689647429	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	47.06	35.07	41.065	175.25294028177	0.1873	0.9273	2.87	3.7973	T	F	15.06	188.06	118	458.72985856623	80.393756508774	0.60266689647429	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	51.64	30.76	41.2	174.31404481202	0.0077	0.8877	2.78	3.6677	T	F	19.64	193.64	118	458.39757031722	79.905134613995	0.74623110234013	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	50.66	35.75	43.205	173.58398066924	0.1591	0.6291	2.48	3.1091	F	F	18.66	205.66	118	458.13864218483	79.525529208843	0.71788253327575	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	50.66	35.75	43.205	173.9009478307	0.134	0.604	2.73	3.334	F	F	18.66	207.66	118	458.25111829429	79.690303815857	0.71788253327575	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	53.99	31.16	42.575	177.37663769802	0.0077	0.5677	2.85	3.4177	F	F	21.99	217.99	118	459.47854784942	81.5007599119	0.80763327399139	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	33.16	29.81	31.485	179.09224796734	0.0503	1.4303	2.24	3.6703	T	F	1.16	196.16	118	460.08042775857	82.396838053058	0.16824359381243	91	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	33.16	29.81	31.485	178.41224229153	0.0431	1.4231	1.97	3.3931	T	F	1.16	193.16	118	459.84217811163	82.041474097119	0.16824359381243	91	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	211	-75	30.9	30.54	30.72	176.40859549689	0.1088	1.3288	1.74	3.0688	F	F	-1.1	198.9	118	459.13777463954	80.99584996373	0.12304944583529	91	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L