Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 24, 2020

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DAY 207 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/25/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.11°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.399 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 215 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.53 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.17 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.70 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 172 in SWE DAY: 114 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.54 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -79 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-25 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	207	-79	41.23994	30.97994	36.10994	172.31428791667	0.060000000000002	1.53	0.17	1.7	F	F	9.23994	215.23994	114	455.53966686827	78.495993314201	0.39903935673913	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-78	45.74	36.87	41.305	172.343672	0.0673	1.5373	0.17	1.7073	F	F	13.74	219.74	115	456.09019404418	78.604258804766	0.59722072053904	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-78	41.54	31.87	36.705	172.40297236536	0.0555	1.5255	0.17	1.6955	F	F	9.54	215.54	115	456.11155224381	78.634987337012	0.41201612649403	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	207	-78	47.57	32.45	40.01	172.49721725	0.0465	1.5165	0.17	1.6865	F	F	15.57	221.57	115	456.14548978482	78.683827649021	0.67375453672884	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	45.29	31.92	38.605	172.308248	0.0631	1.1331	0.17	1.3031	F	F	13.29	216.29	114	455.53748284636	78.492865567586	0.57767963103519	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	46.35	31.44	38.895	172.33844508047	0.0599	1.2099	0.17	1.3799	F	F	14.35	225.35	114	455.54840171587	78.508503210606	0.62331820570941	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	45.94	32.03	38.985	172.26784933333	0.0652	1.2152	0.17	1.3852	F	F	13.94	224.94	114	455.52287390692	78.471945810084	0.60583137077826	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	45.54	33.95	39.745	171.90252776275	0.0614	1.2114	0.17	1.3814	F	F	13.54	224.54	114	455.39069846678	78.282812186085	0.58856266359924	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 08:01:13	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	45.65	34.05	39.85	171.9290886408	0.0623	1.2823	0.17	1.4523	F	F	13.65	220.65	114	455.40031247981	78.296560691389	0.5933302197009	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	42.85	33.79	38.32	172.45770844273	0.06	1.37	0.17	1.54	F	F	10.85	219.85	114	455.59151760382	78.570269111902	0.46961898485436	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	44	33.76	38.88	172.45648648265	0.155	0.595	0.17	0.765	F	F	12	222	114	455.59107590911	78.569636224135	0.52075872890203	89	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-22 19:57:50	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	45.1	33.64	39.37	173.02577050161	0.1514	1.7414	0.17	1.9114	F	F	13.1	228.1	114	455.79670326506	78.864575774532	0.56936821061496	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	44.54	33.69	39.115	173.23046397954	0.1344	1.7844	0.17	1.9544	F	F	12.54	226.54	114	455.87056661164	78.970669768751	0.54470579172341	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	48.46	33.37	40.915	173.43359797198	0.0269	1.7469	0.17	1.9169	F	F	16.46	229.46	114	455.94382926455	79.075978782475	0.70870040098279	89	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	47.7	33.37	40.535	174.01044520165	0.0302	2.0302	0.17	2.2002	F	F	15.7	220.7	114	456.15167000459	79.375155176975	0.67896512246932	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	47.31	32.96	40.135	174.36771334725	0.0443	1.8843	0.17	2.0543	F	F	15.31	223.31	114	456.2802427524	79.560542574264	0.66323190919459	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	46.89	32.59	39.74	174.89511704695	0.0689	1.6589	0.17	1.8289	F	F	14.89	224.89	114	456.46983032895	79.834344403784	0.64596394898009	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-21 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	46.24	32.4	39.32	174.98120837491	0.0687	1.8387	0.2	2.0387	F	F	14.24	227.24	114	456.50075376202	79.879053517334	0.61864973180549	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	47.6	32.12	39.86	176.27071964068	0.0757	2.0457	0.2	2.2457	F	F	15.6	231.6	114	456.96312936503	80.54921966243	0.6749600392358	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	44.19	32.55	38.37	174.75245289468	0.0148	1.6148	0.2	1.8148	F	F	12.19	230.19	114	456.41857142347	79.760264902936	0.5291975766948	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	44.19	33.92	39.055	173.92528992732	0.0181	1.3381	0.2	1.5381	F	F	12.19	227.19	114	456.12100731909	79.330978439915	0.5291975766948	89	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	51.68	33.44	42.56	172.54436664647	0.0036	1.1136	0.21	1.3236	F	F	19.68	237.68	114	455.62283793825	78.615154001721	0.81829483897561	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	51.93	31.57	41.75	173.90683668759	0.0023	0.9923	0.19	1.1823	F	F	19.93	221.93	114	456.11436180773	79.321405829762	0.82556668523011	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	51.93	30.54	41.235	174.69630873275	0.0026	1.0926	0.2	1.2926	F	F	19.93	238.93	114	456.39839385995	79.731114718891	0.82556668523011	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	52.19	32.61	42.4	174.7218038502	0.0038	1.1338	0.2	1.3338	F	F	20.19	243.19	114	456.40755686743	79.744351626738	0.83293084625378	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	52.23	31.8	42.015	173.99732985245	0.0053	1.2353	0.19	1.4253	F	F	20.23	244.23	114	456.14694786567	79.368350948972	0.8340457831071	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	52.87	31.93	42.4	174.60878655778	0.005	1.445	0.19	1.635	F	F	20.87	233.87	114	456.36693366121	79.685676511677	0.85123053864564	89	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	DRY	L
2020-04-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	52.36	31.21	41.785	174.45775897153	0.0089	1.1089	0.21	1.3189	F	F	20.36	241.36	114	456.31262973676	79.607278774281	0.83763611826826	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	48.52	32.18	40.35	174.61776864108	0.1557	1.6057	0.2	1.8057	F	F	16.52	227.52	114	456.37016262933	79.690339472699	0.71099225093111	89	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	48.52	32.18	40.35	176.21228213601	0.1557	1.5457	0.21	1.7557	F	F	16.52	241.52	114	456.94220837485	80.518829342	0.71099225093111	89	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 15:59:36	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	49.78	32.34	41.06	176.7415196637	0.1529	1.5829	0.2	1.7829	F	F	17.78	242.78	114	457.13156546244	80.79412756608	0.75705527833811	89	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	50.9	32.62	41.76	176.56673470378	0.0018	1.4118	0.21	1.6218	F	F	18.9	239.9	114	457.06905690683	80.703190912175	0.79441478211402	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	50.9	32.62	41.76	175.07946149455	0.0018	1.3918	0.21	1.6018	F	F	18.9	235.9	114	456.53603736843	79.930083575319	0.79441478211402	89	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	49.14	33.07	41.105	175.44826520574	0.0561	1.5961	0.23	1.8261	F	F	17.14	246.14	114	456.66839967008	80.121678496396	0.73416407843854	89	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	48.01	32.29	40.15	177.56743785244	0.0036	2.0636	0.11	2.1736	F	F	16.01	237.01	114	457.42656447967	81.2240630603	0.69124764240898	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	48.01	32.29	40.15	177.70512548417	0.0036	2.0536	0.19	2.2436	F	F	16.01	247.01	114	457.47568318494	81.295773686338	0.69124764240898	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	47.02	31.38	39.2	175.44805776115	0.0089	1.9789	0.19	2.1689	F	F	15.02	245.02	114	456.66832525382	80.121570706821	0.65134295375531	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	46.62	30.78	38.7	176.38484823165	0.0305	1.5305	0.2	1.7305	F	F	14.62	247.62	114	457.00397915706	80.608577504879	0.63469976133619	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	46.62	30.78	38.7	174.10609612882	0.0305	1.5305	0.27	1.8005	F	F	14.62	247.62	114	456.18610405383	79.424781685029	0.63469976133619	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	45.14	29.41	37.275	176.66393726373	0.0338	1.5838	0.32	1.9038	F	F	13.14	242.14	114	457.10382300048	80.753761109569	0.5711206676385	89	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	43.36	30.78	37.07	174.75781276048	0.479	2.019	0.23	2.249	F	F	11.36	229.36	114	456.4204975469	79.763047850345	0.49228661291505	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 19:59:37	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	43.36	30.78	37.07	176.02550107617	0.4617	2.0017	0.21	2.2117	F	F	11.36	246.36	114	456.87531876498	80.421706914941	0.49228661291505	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 15:58:00	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	41.49	31.32	36.405	176.35973751753	0.3828	1.5828	0.25	1.8328	F	F	9.49	242.49	114	456.99499235122	80.595516897887	0.40984666058625	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	37.65	29.3	33.475	176.13772637864	0.0021	0.9121	0.27	1.1821	F	F	5.65	228.65	114	456.91551244133	80.480059508545	0.2558080280945	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	31.07	29.3	30.185	176.03114212715	0.0005	0.9105	0.34	1.2505	F	F	-0.93	220.07	114	456.87733939015	80.424639864862	0.082108104335598	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	207	-79	31.55	30.14	30.845	177.3245463985	0.0004	1.3104	0.3	1.6104	F	F	-0.45	226.55	114	457.33987345629	81.097585610583	0.090550360878183	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L