Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 20, 2020

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DAY 203 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/21/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.90°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.34°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.767 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 209 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.22 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 175 in SWE DAY: 110 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.22 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 79.33 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-21 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	203	-83	49.78994	32.9	41.34497	174.66008375	0	0.15	0.22	0.37	F	F	17.78994	208.78994	110	454.21792025513	79.333739992512	0.76655638777239	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-82	34.64	34.64	34.64	174.985568	0.0003	0.1503	0.22	0.3703	F	F	2.64	193.64	111	454.88116293767	79.597638669149	0.23485088226892	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-82	50.85	34.64	42.745	175.1718	0.0075	0.1575	0.22	0.3775	F	F	18.85	209.85	111	454.94879903701	79.694200035151	0.79646865690861	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-82	51.28	32.68	41.98	175.02709733333	0.0121	0.1621	0.22	0.3821	F	F	19.28	210.28	111	454.89624841349	79.619169947636	0.80792056205744	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	203	-82	50.42	34.67	42.545	175.52225608333	0.0191	0.1691	0.22	0.3891	F	F	18.42	209.42	111	455.07599163754	79.875964741581	0.78461986400937	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	51.92	35.11	43.515	175.821168	0.0184	0.1684	0.22	0.3884	F	F	19.92	203.92	110	454.6410366103	79.935518077554	0.82421908239555	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	51.97	33.39	42.68	176.87572533333	0.0161	0.1761	0.22	0.3961	F	F	19.97	215.97	110	455.02425311163	80.482744813377	0.82545450129381	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-19 15:59:36	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.31	32.96	42.635	176.81674	0.014	0.174	0.22	0.394	F	F	20.31	216.31	110	455.00284547116	80.452119826934	0.8337089331862	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.34	34.63	43.485	176.11028266667	0.0151	0.1751	0.22	0.3951	F	F	20.34	216.34	110	454.74620039132	80.085481892507	0.83442499244131	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.76	35.76	44.26	176.16643036496	0.0132	0.1832	0.22	0.4032	F	F	20.76	211.76	110	454.7666148367	80.114611184937	0.84424054336107	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.67	36.03	44.35	175.63391875	0.0185	0.1985	0.22	0.4185	F	F	20.67	216.67	110	454.57288456562	79.838417073751	0.84217010676534	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.07	36.1	44.085	175.846024	0.0357	0.0757	0.22	0.2957	F	F	20.07	211.07	110	454.65008087058	79.948409032369	0.82790879047927	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	53.24	36.07	44.655	175.884236	0.0308	0.1608	0.22	0.3808	F	F	21.24	222.24	110	454.66398381528	79.968227430066	0.85498000661235	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.87	36.12	44.495	175.77118533333	0.0378	0.1578	0.22	0.3778	F	F	20.87	221.87	110	454.62284787461	79.909596850535	0.84674671086231	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.38	36.11	44.245	175.55139443019	0.0276	0.1676	0.22	0.3876	F	F	20.38	220.38	110	454.54283836603	79.795629103412	0.83537663912154	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.69	36.01	44.35	175.41557866667	0.0272	0.2372	0.22	0.4572	F	F	20.69	219.69	110	454.49337562248	79.725218484984	0.84263175452928	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.82	35.96	44.39	175.82908690909	0.0223	0.2923	0.22	0.5123	F	F	20.82	215.82	110	454.64391809628	79.939624987641	0.84561086606475	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	53.37	36.1	44.735	176.25387466667	0.0311	0.2011	0.22	0.4211	F	F	21.37	202.37	110	454.79840245167	80.159980624317	0.85780096212902	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-17 19:59:37	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.82	35.88	44.35	177.42711333333	0.0307	0.1807	0.22	0.4007	F	F	20.82	218.82	110	455.22421418336	80.769118241988	0.84561086606475	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-17 15:57:59	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.1	35.76	43.93	177.41126	0.0278	0.1978	0.22	0.4178	F	F	20.1	218.1	110	455.21846887523	80.760882138426	0.82864077153676	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	46.15	33.82	39.985	176.7931471354	0.0118	0.2118	0.22	0.4318	F	F	14.15	213.15	110	454.9942819774	80.439871039397	0.64766827050066	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	46.15	33.82	39.985	176.61266223891	0.0147	0.2747	0.23	0.5047	F	F	14.15	211.15	110	454.92875445634	80.346178453564	0.64766827050066	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	50.15	33.91	42.03	176.7586805782	0.0074	0.2574	0.22	0.4774	F	F	18.15	214.15	110	454.98177074077	80.42197748327	0.77698012279484	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	50.02	33.78	41.9	177.34301661239	0.0077	0.1777	0.22	0.3977	F	F	18.02	201.02	110	455.19373457117	80.725430031913	0.77324747545827	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	50.35	33.16	41.755	178.40705577904	0.0144	0.1844	0.23	0.4144	F	F	18.35	217.35	110	455.57890029241	81.278490276224	0.78265387836852	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	48.98	33.35	41.165	178.52565611425	0.019	0.179	0.23	0.409	F	F	16.98	214.98	110	455.62176733389	81.340174953216	0.74215221102666	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	49.83	33.77	41.8	177.49003243303	0.0183	0.1783	0.23	0.4083	F	F	17.83	215.83	110	455.24701402269	80.801807283927	0.76772930019506	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-16 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	51.29	34.03	42.66	177.34208454658	0.0059	0.1359	0.23	0.3659	F	F	19.29	211.29	110	455.19339672123	80.724945846382	0.808182116846	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	50.57	33.78	42.175	177.42470175	0.0132	0.1432	0.23	0.3732	F	F	18.57	222.57	110	455.22334023133	80.767865370182	0.78879783928398	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-15 23:58:10	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	51.05	34.25	42.65	177.591608	0.0154	0.1054	0.29	0.3954	F	F	19.05	229.05	110	455.2838140224	80.854584628611	0.80184485740096	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	46.3	34.19	40.245	178.59675236276	0.009	0.099	0.29	0.389	F	F	14.3	228.3	110	455.64745825354	81.377156266427	0.65298577889028	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	53.88	34.41	44.145	178.24995186063	0.0027	0.0727	0.28	0.3527	F	F	21.88	236.88	110	455.52209658539	81.196791787798	0.86850860051703	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	44.7	34.44	39.57	178.39868622937	0.1595	0.2295	0.28	0.5095	F	F	12.7	220.7	110	455.57587470493	81.274137525155	0.59491601667476	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	44.7	34.44	39.57	178.37298824932	0.1595	0.2295	0.3	0.5295	F	F	12.7	220.7	110	455.5665844977	81.260773023393	0.59491601667476	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	44.21	34.51	39.36	178.73317737138	0.1547	0.2047	0.29	0.4947	F	F	12.21	224.21	110	455.69674299674	81.448126793595	0.57663678037512	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.75	36.41	44.58	178.88955966169	0.1098	0.2098	0.31	0.5198	F	F	20.75	217.75	110	455.75321648044	81.529492210585	0.84401138096598	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	52.75	36.41	44.58	179.79825280556	0.1098	0.1898	0.31	0.4998	F	F	20.75	235.75	110	456.08092437816	82.00255334114	0.84401138096598	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	53.49	35.62	44.555	179.72562753828	0.0622	0.1222	0.32	0.4422	F	F	21.49	235.49	110	456.05476085846	81.964728087109	0.86037184376156	88	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	42.06	35.06	38.56	179.33448330982	0.0456	0.0856	0.33	0.4156	F	F	10.06	226.06	110	455.91376668632	81.761059782524	0.49499622082455	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	44.71	34.24	39.475	179.46801183227	0.0935	0.1635	0.32	0.4835	F	F	12.71	222.71	110	455.96191491916	81.830578341777	0.59528705848415	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	48.34	35.87	42.105	178.74897597631	0.0949	0.1149	0.35	0.4649	F	F	16.34	247.34	110	455.70244927946	81.4563461586	0.72197329845538	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	48.75	34.27	41.51	180.33133149599	0.1219	0.1419	0.33	0.4719	F	F	16.75	224.75	110	456.27282028027	82.28028520657	0.7349887043543	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-13 20:00:58	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	48.76	34.29	41.525	180.53712165906	0.0585	0.0785	0.31	0.3885	F	F	16.76	241.76	110	456.34683045601	82.387543248762	0.73530224797971	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	48.88	34.65	41.765	180.43652901629	0.0111	0.0611	0.29	0.3511	F	F	16.88	244.88	110	456.31065824827	82.335111327454	0.73905001812871	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	44.13	36.84	40.485	179.90807926749	0.0007	0.0207	0.27	0.2907	F	F	12.13	237.13	110	456.12048059839	82.059759579022	0.57363557749861	88	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	39.91	36.86	38.385	179.87378166189	0.0004	0.0204	0.27	0.2904	F	F	7.91	234.91	110	456.10812880736	82.041893975309	0.41356541395115	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	203	-83	37.8	35.2	36.5	180.0780757225	0.0045	0.1145	0.26	0.3745	F	F	5.8	242.8	110	456.18168650321	82.148320285343	0.337098299036	88	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L