Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 19, 2020

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DAY 202 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/20/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.92°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.14°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.525 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 187 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.44 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.59 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 176 in SWE DAY: 109 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.34 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 80.18 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -84 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-20 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	202	-84	41.91998	30.14006	36.03002	176.47766541667	0	0.15	0.44	0.59	F	F	9.91998	186.91998	109	454.33521139373	80.180017423353	0.52465650900189	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	202	-83	34.68	34.68	34.68	176.98534933333	0.0015	0.1515	0.44	0.5915	F	F	2.68	179.68	110	455.06403060508	80.539666425674	0.26147965645085	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-83	46.7	34.34	40.52	177.39839333333	0.0134	0.1634	0.44	0.6034	F	F	14.7	191.7	110	455.21380577636	80.754197767877	0.70000524096224	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-83	42.23	31.12	36.675	177.45596236496	0.021	0.171	0.44	0.611	F	F	10.23	187.23	110	455.23466858829	80.784106216227	0.53658934391534	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-83	47.19	33.85	40.52	176.93662541667	0.0297	0.1797	0.44	0.6197	F	F	15.19	192.19	110	455.04635231039	80.514365985963	0.71628376282785	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.06	33.87	40.965	177.13889066667	0.0424	0.0424	0.44	0.4824	F	F	16.06	187.06	109	454.57612783068	80.523111007476	0.74410006618623	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.15	32.58	40.365	177.222148	0.0315	0.1315	0.44	0.5715	F	F	16.15	197.15	109	454.60643384515	80.566328700657	0.74689430540761	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.04	33.31	40.675	177.110628	0.0242	0.1242	0.44	0.5642	F	F	16.04	197.04	109	454.56583864572	80.50844114989	0.74347694829247	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47.07	33.14	40.105	176.83245309686	0.0413	0.1413	0.44	0.5813	F	F	15.07	196.07	109	454.46452806393	80.36407734305	0.71233646539438	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47.61	34.16	40.885	176.69893333333	0.0346	0.2146	0.44	0.6546	F	F	15.61	194.61	109	454.41587507976	80.294800416326	0.72989149979461	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.11	34.45	41.28	177.11889224242	0.0408	0.2708	0.44	0.7108	F	F	16.11	191.11	109	454.56884736671	80.512730693508	0.74565440317979	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	46.43	34.19	40.31	177.56150133333	0.0409	0.1709	0.44	0.6109	F	F	14.43	177.43	109	454.72989358825	80.742522606677	0.69085875427878	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 19:59:37	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47	34	40.5	178.67548133333	0.0421	0.1521	0.44	0.5921	F	F	15	194	109	455.13442214298	81.321361947766	0.71002196609863	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 15:57:59	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47.29	33.71	40.5	178.59031066667	0.0386	0.1686	0.44	0.6086	F	F	15.29	194.29	109	455.10353382583	81.277081491452	0.71955325641445	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47.52	33.4	40.46	177.6985911354	0.0508	0.2008	0.44	0.6408	F	F	15.52	194.52	109	454.77973789999	80.813718701755	0.72700321154897	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47.52	33.37	40.445	177.55096090557	0.0396	0.2696	0.44	0.7096	F	F	15.52	192.52	109	454.72606048856	80.73704898855	0.72700321154897	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	47.77	32.84	40.305	177.79198991153	0.0311	0.2511	0.44	0.6911	F	F	15.77	191.77	109	454.81368670653	80.862230398553	0.73498825041393	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	46.85	32.66	39.755	178.29924594573	0.0333	0.1733	0.44	0.6133	F	F	14.85	178.85	109	454.99792473752	81.125786887571	0.705033174824	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.53	33	40.765	179.31500154753	0.0343	0.1743	0.45	0.6243	F	F	16.53	194.53	109	455.36613963449	81.653980033254	0.75851324407327	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.34	32.31	40.325	179.38329280679	0.0256	0.1556	0.45	0.6056	F	F	16.34	194.34	109	455.39086138501	81.689512229365	0.75274020964558	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.82	33.21	41.015	178.44797866667	0.0173	0.1573	0.45	0.6073	F	F	16.82	193.82	109	455.0519002462	81.203091787359	0.76718194937506	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	43.43	34.29	38.86	178.42705387992	0.0121	0.1321	0.45	0.5821	F	F	11.43	188.43	109	455.04430781673	81.192215228564	0.582373545124	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	49.06	34.68	41.87	178.50026841667	0.013	0.133	0.45	0.583	F	F	17.06	200.06	109	455.07087149454	81.230272710382	0.77422352034151	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-15 23:58:10	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	50.23	35.28	42.755	178.727144	0.0132	0.0932	0.51	0.6032	F	F	18.23	206.23	109	455.15315506603	81.34822348754	0.80677959074881	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	50.68	34.19	42.435	179.62661769609	0.0069	0.0869	0.51	0.5969	F	F	18.68	209.68	109	455.47891126457	81.816136262352	0.81849857890587	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	52.93	35.06	43.995	179.54637186063	0.0054	0.0654	0.5	0.5654	F	F	20.93	210.93	109	455.44987940987	81.774373412402	0.87024885922538	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	50.61	33.78	42.195	179.30872222937	0.023	0.073	0.5	0.573	F	F	18.61	203.61	109	455.3638662771	81.650713011572	0.8167053643649	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	50.61	33.78	42.195	179.28302424932	0.023	0.073	0.52	0.593	F	F	18.61	203.61	109	455.35456223102	81.637343022504	0.8167053643649	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	49.59	31.92	40.755	179.54022137138	0.0336	0.0536	0.51	0.5636	F	F	17.59	207.59	109	455.44765400213	81.771172622617	0.78933976465	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.82	34.46	41.64	180.11808366169	0.0332	0.1032	0.53	0.6332	F	F	16.82	192.82	109	455.65658794196	82.071991427931	0.76718194937506	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-14 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	53.04	34.51	43.775	181.02677680556	0.0031	0.0831	0.53	0.6131	F	F	21.04	211.04	109	455.98451860896	82.545407677016	0.87248678907273	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	51.64	34.53	43.085	180.98788087162	0.0083	0.0583	0.54	0.5983	F	F	19.64	209.64	109	455.97049728096	82.525134042859	0.84197726401818	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	53.43	34.45	43.94	180.23446064315	0.0068	0.0368	0.55	0.5868	F	F	21.43	212.43	109	455.69862852979	82.132596528889	0.88020502718531	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	52.58	34.71	43.645	180.39444783227	0.015	0.065	0.54	0.605	F	F	20.58	205.58	109	455.75640280038	82.215924629197	0.86294841986988	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	57.02	33.71	45.365	179.86669064298	0.0013	0.0213	0.57	0.5913	F	F	25.02	227.02	109	455.56573107535	81.941100418873	0.93626147557911	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	54.33	32.32	43.325	181.26902882932	0.0128	0.0228	0.55	0.5728	F	F	22.33	204.33	109	456.07181520245	82.671695018173	0.89674736644931	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-13 20:00:58	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	54.35	32.33	43.34	181.38828165906	0.0128	0.0228	0.53	0.5528	F	F	22.35	221.35	109	456.11476876419	82.733874145455	0.89709518247397	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	51.87	32.63	42.25	181.18770368295	0.0176	0.0476	0.51	0.5576	F	F	19.87	223.87	109	456.04251531374	82.629296131495	0.84729296573102	88	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	52.19	32.14	42.165	180.41369126749	0.0053	0.0153	0.49	0.5053	F	F	20.19	221.19	109	455.7633503716	82.22594838498	0.85448970828757	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	52.21	32.17	42.19	180.17472166189	0.0053	0.0153	0.49	0.5053	F	F	20.21	223.21	109	455.67704968141	82.10148559406	0.8549318248495	88	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.86	33.14	41	180.1723757225	0.1018	0.1118	0.48	0.5918	F	F	16.86	232.86	109	455.67620221697	82.100263913637	0.76836393665532	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-12 23:59:39	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	46.5	32.75	39.625	184.76815366487	0.0603	0.1303	0.49	0.6203	F	F	14.5	216.5	109	457.32676736441	84.499422427443	0.69324175396107	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	46.53	34.95	40.74	184.63258141519	0.057	0.127	0.49	0.617	F	F	14.53	221.53	109	457.27835214225	84.428482581308	0.69426055485712	88	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-12 16:00:56	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	48.76	35.15	41.955	184.22053434087	0.0108	0.1208	0.47	0.5908	F	F	16.76	229.76	109	457.13110054295	84.212935605852	0.76540271233196	88	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	40.57	32.94	36.755	184.43183437808	0.002	0.072	0.47	0.542	F	F	8.57	222.57	109	457.20663123558	84.3234576886	0.47257682431659	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	34.86	32.96	33.91	184.67450905963	0.0014	0.0714	0.48	0.5514	F	F	2.86	210.86	109	457.29332701836	84.450420663359	0.26717833078086	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 03:59:40	FORECAST	2020	202	-84	34.41	33.16	33.785	184.76116553089	0.0047	0.0347	0.48	0.5147	F	F	2.41	213.41	109	457.32427218702	84.495765554841	0.25305004329764	88	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L