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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 18, 2020

[ Friday, April 17, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 19, 2020 ]

DAY 201 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/19/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.426
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 176

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 178 in
SWE DAY: 108
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 80.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-19 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020201-8539.3499431.4400235.39498177.685012083330.149999999999980.149999999999980.60.74999999999998FF7.34994176.34994108454.22989105516 80.7098436807480.426485094029187 2112124DRYL
2020-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2020201-8432.9632.9632.96177.9947520.00350.00350.60.6035FF0.96169.96109454.8873594320780.9675627300470.19812992118914871111121.5DRYL
2020-04-18 12:00:01FORECAST2020201-8442.9733.7138.34177.714663763520.10010.10010.60.7001FF10.97179.97109454.7855805903580.8220665391130.57543478411099873112125DRYL
2020-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2020201-8440.9334.0437.485177.595740.18060.18060.60.7806FF8.93177.93109454.7423440088880.7603030935910.49145973598225872112124DRYL
2020-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2020201-8437.2234.5835.9178.046257575760.23050.23050.60.8305FF5.22174.22109454.9060677172280.9943229055550.34226121709256872112124DRYL
2020-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2020201-8540.7834.0637.42178.395605333330.13010.13010.60.7301FF8.78161.78108454.4889683441481.0788346250740.48525428765948872112124DRYL
2020-04-17 19:59:37FORECAST2020201-8540.7631.7336.245179.507070666670.11170.11170.60.7117FF8.76177.76108454.893264218281.6565573258070.48442713146249872112124DRYL
2020-04-17 15:57:59FORECAST2020201-8540.5833.4837.03179.452950666670.13290.13290.60.7329FF8.58177.58108454.8736044746481.6284105033560.47698616743845872112124DRYL
2020-04-17 12:00:03FORECAST2020201-8540.7833.3437.06178.527228468740.15060.15060.60.7506FF8.78177.78108454.5369059028681.1472140475920.48525428765948872112124DRYL
2020-04-17 08:00:03FORECAST2020201-8538.9833.3536.165178.375662238910.21640.22640.60.8264FF6.98175.98108454.4817036083881.0684748566110.41149187427624872112124DRYL
2020-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2020201-8539.2932.8536.07178.592473911530.22020.22020.60.8202FF7.29175.29108454.5606625572281.1811132689580.42404797280769872112124DRYL
2020-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2020201-8540.2632.4336.345179.028478487860.13930.13930.60.7393FF8.26163.26108454.7193160724781.4077072954970.46377923016916872112124DRYL
2020-04-16 20:00:02FORECAST2020201-8540.1632.7736.465180.14309221420.13630.14630.60.7463FF8.16177.16108455.1241043356181.9874634962360.45965954690922872112124DRYL
2020-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2020201-8539.9632.7436.35180.131631314110.13450.14450.60.7445FF7.96176.96108455.1199479708281.9814986715780.45143359807798872112124DRYL
2020-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2020201-8537.7933.4635.625179.2756320.13970.14970.60.7497FF5.79175.79108454.8091723915981.5362018198990.36423379508987872112124DRYL
2020-04-16 07:58:04FORECAST2020201-8541.7934.1437.965179.162757879920.12330.13330.60.7333FF9.79175.79108454.7681423320181.4775145761290.52703178810482873112125DRYL
2020-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2020201-8542.6534.6738.66179.437473750.12060.13060.60.7306FF10.65181.65108454.867981800881.6203615440970.56238942701397873112125DRYL
2020-04-15 23:58:10FORECAST2020201-8543.8635.2339.545179.717485333330.07750.08750.660.7475FF11.86186.86108454.9696742127881.7660057524470.61124297712899873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2020201-8547.1935.6841.435180.653203029420.08420.09420.660.7542FF15.19190.19108455.3089766244282.2530249952510.73501227688474874112126DRYL
2020-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2020201-8547.1335.741.415180.711701193960.06460.06460.660.7246FF15.13189.13108455.3301619858682.2834881773870.73296924201121874111123DRYL
2020-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2020201-8542.0433.5937.815180.371332896040.05110.05110.660.7111FF10.04184.04108455.2068520077482.1062666400440.53734472384096873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2020201-8542.0433.5937.815180.345634915990.05150.05150.680.7315FF10.04184.04108455.1975377125582.0928889509660.53734472384096873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-15 04:00:02FORECAST2020201-8546.8633.8440.35180.527337371380.02310.02310.670.6931FF14.86188.86108455.2633831617382.1874863648730.72367836478682874111123DRYL
2020-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020201-8544.2934.6239.455181.141498328360.06710.06710.690.7571FF12.29175.29108455.4857183750382.5073654936210.628230435104873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-14 20:00:01FORECAST2020201-8544.5833.7539.165182.23835413890.08490.08490.690.7749FF12.58188.58108455.8819343352483.0791733949120.6395500158878873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2020201-8544.7334.0739.4182.124564871620.05090.05090.70.7509FF12.73188.73108455.8408816685683.0198222245820.64535806968083873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2020201-8545.7433.4139.575181.440625976480.03260.03260.710.7426FF13.74189.74108455.5938814043182.6632390330550.6835333621738873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020201-8546.3433.3539.845181.60422116560.05220.05220.70.7522FF14.34184.34108455.6530018350782.7485085200280.70535054227149874111123DRYL
2020-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2020201-8548.9734.3141.64181.200830642980.02420.02420.730.7542FF16.97200.97108455.5071791710482.5382792296330.79181940480866874121123.5DRYL
2020-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020201-8543.8632.238.03182.377740128710.00940.00940.710.7194FF11.86180.86108455.9322055704783.151885303840.61124297712899873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-13 20:00:58FORECAST2020201-8543.8732.2138.04182.499218678070.00940.00940.690.6994FF11.87197.87108455.9760037590283.2152644219720.61164060161425873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2020201-8547.1332.539.815182.199638349620.03390.03390.670.7039FF15.13203.13108455.8679678611283.0589788794710.73296924201121874121123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020201-8548.631.9340.265181.514076600830.00850.00850.650.6585FF16.6199.6108455.6204282099782.7015213070060.78063887194971874121123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2020201-8548.6231.9540.285181.277348328560.00850.00850.650.6585FF16.62201.62108455.5348512273582.5781499017390.78125189413199874121123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2020201-8551.2233.0842.15181.069018389170.00580.00580.640.6458FF19.22215.22108455.4594976281882.4696041515560.85229146900065875121124DRYL
2020-04-12 23:59:39FORECAST2020201-8544.8635.340.08185.57481499820.07460.07460.650.7246FF12.86200.86108457.0803967137884.8226100594640.65036459581911873121123DRYL
2020-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020201-8544.8935.3240.105185.391956081860.07460.07460.650.7246FF12.89205.89108457.0149762173684.7269003996390.65151628347873873121123DRYL
2020-04-12 16:00:56FORECAST2020201-8546.4535.1940.82184.836518340870.10890.10890.630.7389FF14.45212.45108456.8160736805784.4362925812630.70927397639161874122127DRYL
2020-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020201-8542.9233.1738.045184.624315711410.0740.0740.630.704FF10.92212.92108456.7400096978284.3253117484840.5734015082097873121123DRYL
2020-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020201-8542.9533.1938.07184.757493059630.0740.0740.640.714FF10.95206.95108456.7877518779684.3949598973160.57462171140673873121123DRYL
2020-04-12 03:59:40FORECAST2020201-8540.5533.6537.1184.795714864230.03460.03460.640.6746FF8.55209.55108456.8014508675184.4149506640770.47574671626068872121122.5DRYL
2020-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2020201-8546.9831.5839.28185.376948064380.01640.03640.840.8764FF14.98203.98108457.0096055265584.7190459086150.72782713906507874121123.5DRYL
2020-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020201-854731.6139.305185.244209671640.01020.03020.880.9102FF15222108456.96209554484.6495822389450.72851558294504874121123.5DRYL
2020-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020201-8545.6831.8538.765185.463664569640.0170.0370.940.977FF13.68217.68108457.0406346166884.7644309532430.6813143819973873121123DRYL
2020-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2020201-8534.2432.0633.15185.15264384720.03520.04521.011.0552FF2.24206.24108456.9293127895384.6016703142660.23715423716051871121122DRYL
2020-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2020201-8533.9733.2533.61184.726301345170.01550.02551.021.0455FF1.97203.97108456.7765715413984.378646601970.22858830455556871121122DRYL
2020-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020201-8535.4135.0835.245184.410023884040.00330.013311.0133FF3.41218.41108456.6631552257584.2132633621420.27622700183039872121122.5DRYL