Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 15, 2020

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DAY 198 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/16/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.90°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.724 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 130 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 182 in SWE DAY: 105 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.34 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 82.90 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -88 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-16 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	198	-88	44.90006	30.97994	37.94	182.46846708333	0	0	2.46	2.46	F	F	12.90006	129.90006	105	454.33759975119	82.90228536492	0.72416790295066	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-15 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	198	-87	47.96	33.05	40.505	183.34546262617	0.0636	0.0636	2.46	2.5236	F	F	15.96	132.96	106	455.2003292856	83.458914960455	0.83090691564935	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-87	47.9	31.81	39.855	183.28939163756	0.0849	0.0849	2.46	2.5449	F	F	15.9	132.9	106	455.1800045068	83.429666111633	0.82910778334475	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-87	47.77	33.82	40.795	183.66403091667	0.0699	0.0699	2.46	2.5299	F	F	15.77	132.77	106	455.3157499412	83.625125974046	0.82516792194469	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.72	33.43	41.075	184.12894133333	0.0871	0.0871	2.46	2.5471	F	F	16.72	121.72	105	454.94181412583	83.767954603255	0.85264049559486	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.24	33.06	40.65	185.23041213208	0.0816	0.0916	2.46	2.5516	F	F	16.24	135.24	105	455.34121439573	84.343040803243	0.83914172720254	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.08	33.31	40.695	185.15976156234	0.0913	0.1013	2.46	2.5613	F	F	16.08	135.08	105	455.31562957723	84.306133408129	0.83446863476919	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	47.28	32.48	39.88	184.39566615784	0.1041	0.1141	2.46	2.5741	F	F	15.28	134.28	105	455.0386327882	83.907151820531	0.8098062824199	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.11	31.99	40.05	184.30936869527	0.0908	0.1008	2.46	2.5608	F	F	16.11	135.11	105	455.00731477928	83.862110938698	0.83535144616789	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.71	33.54	41.125	184.42174660078	0.1244	0.1344	2.46	2.5944	F	F	16.71	136.71	105	455.0480962296	83.920764694024	0.85236722963572	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	49.08	32.97	41.025	185.26825037318	0.0913	0.1113	2.46	2.5713	F	F	17.08	122.08	105	455.35491493854	84.362808389493	0.86225314677623	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-13 20:00:58	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	49.7	32.11	40.905	185.23363417177	0.0724	0.0924	2.46	2.5524	F	F	17.7	139.7	105	455.34238108932	84.344724041603	0.87778880038391	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	49.67	32.89	41.28	185.21686081991	0.0552	0.0652	2.46	2.5252	F	F	17.67	140.67	105	455.33630739042	84.335961472184	0.87706653453157	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	51.19	32.98	42.085	184.63350474324	0.0428	0.0528	2.46	2.5128	F	F	19.19	142.19	105	455.12491070643	84.031307359681	0.90999718918823	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	51.73	33.54	42.635	184.409128	0.0324	0.0524	2.46	2.5124	F	F	19.73	143.73	105	455.04351757471	83.914178278005	0.91996290550193	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	51.96	33.92	42.94	184.7622437225	0.0227	0.0427	2.46	2.5027	F	F	19.96	143.96	105	455.17159010092	84.098524265784	0.92394571317867	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 23:59:39	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	47	34.55	40.775	188.65735172443	0.0207	0.0407	2.47	2.5107	F	F	15	144	105	456.57672188317	86.136555209502	0.80066795466066	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	52.46	34.51	43.485	188.47012674852	0.0214	0.0414	2.47	2.5114	F	F	20.46	149.46	105	456.50949941232	86.038403216146	0.93208303025971	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 16:00:55	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	52.7	34.75	43.725	188.34010500754	0.0115	0.0215	2.47	2.4915	F	F	20.7	149.7	105	456.46279674967	85.970251071867	0.9357428172553	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	54.44	34.08	44.26	188.05738237808	0.0116	0.0216	2.47	2.4916	F	F	22.44	151.44	105	456.36119202714	85.822091191564	0.9578931573285	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.83	33.69	41.26	188.19662772629	0.016	0.026	2.47	2.496	F	F	16.83	144.83	105	456.41124307184	85.895056802486	0.85562410586597	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 03:59:40	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	53.54	33.39	43.465	188.28907886423	0.0146	0.0146	2.49	2.5046	F	F	21.54	149.54	105	456.4444643944	85.943507753496	0.94735933771556	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.13	33.48	40.805	188.48624148995	0.2009	0.2209	2.48	2.7009	F	F	16.13	144.13	105	456.51528661113	86.046850556039	0.83593829343325	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	49.79	32	40.895	188.31491419502	0.2265	0.2465	2.49	2.7365	F	F	17.79	161.79	105	456.45374664824	85.957048134059	0.87993775914778	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	48.42	34.06	41.24	188.30683959463	0.2772	0.3072	2.49	2.7972	F	F	16.42	159.42	105	456.45084562868	85.952816170634	0.84429524988498	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	49.14	34.76	41.95	188.06983875824	0.3194	0.3894	2.48	2.8694	F	F	17.14	155.14	105	456.36567013175	85.828617996476	0.86381279845651	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	49.52	35.83	42.675	187.90992401184	0.3194	0.3894	2.49	2.8794	F	F	17.52	151.52	105	456.30816955142	85.744833466389	0.87341046819112	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	50.76	33.9	42.33	187.52810121737	0.3206	0.3906	2.47	2.8606	F	F	18.76	164.76	105	456.17078295089	85.544840757624	0.90142619858557	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	56.67	35.13	45.9	189.13349337208	0.0046	0.0046	2.5	2.5046	F	F	24.67	159.67	105	456.74753491391	86.386256867355	0.97681781478554	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 20:00:52	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	56.69	35.14	45.915	190.13080913463	0.0046	0.0046	2.51	2.5146	F	F	24.69	175.69	105	457.10464729662	86.909676449706	0.9769481194658	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	56.95	35.45	46.2	189.96292934307	0.0046	0.0046	2.51	2.5146	F	F	24.95	176.95	105	457.04459729049	86.821530541724	0.97858682089225	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	56.97	35.46	46.215	189.94817553968	0.0046	0.0046	2.52	2.5246	F	F	24.97	178.97	105	457.03931868317	86.813784733769	0.97870869933399	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	59.71	36.53	48.12	188.30413971192	0.0015	0.0015	2.51	2.5115	F	F	27.71	179.71	105	456.4498756092	85.951401148203	0.99072024846704	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 04:58:25	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	59.29	36.5	47.895	188.25160217374	0.0017	0.0017	2.5	2.5017	F	F	27.29	183.29	105	456.43099848876	85.923866747271	0.98939414651476	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	59.31	36.5	47.905	195.48649286953	0.0017	0.0017	2.49	2.4917	F	F	27.31	193.31	105	459.00697949905	89.729664624903	0.98946084632113	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.31	37.98	49.145	196.35849907682	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.31	196.31	105	459.3142726254	90.190261177285	0.99236260249263	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.48	38.34	49.41	196.18617649882	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.48	199.48	105	459.25360046576	90.099207918694	0.99277879943813	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.51	38.34	49.425	196.19314825849	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.51	198.51	105	459.25605563184	90.102891411187	0.99285013382796	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:52:25	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.51	38.34	49.425	195.06056425849	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.51	198.51	105	458.85663556955	89.504834247949	0.99285013382796	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:50:08	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.51	38.34	49.425	195.06056425849	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.51	198.51	105	458.85663556955	89.504834247949	0.99285013382796	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:47:43	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.51	38.34	49.425	195.06056425849	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.51	198.51	105	458.85663556955	89.504834247949	0.99285013382796	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:46:41	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	60.51	38.34	49.425	195.06056425849	0.0026	0.0026	2.49	2.4926	F	F	28.51	198.51	105	458.85663556955	89.504834247949	0.99285013382796	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	57.03	37.07	47.05	195.53809451173	0.0022	0.0022	2.49	2.4922	F	F	25.03	181.03	105	459.02518276028	89.756909569845	0.97907082818632	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	59.41	36.41	47.91	195.18071902926	0.0022	0.0022	2.49	2.4922	F	F	27.41	186.41	105	458.89906417266	89.568249307072	0.98978889759867	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 00:58:29	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	59.43	36.41	47.92	194.94904089035	0.0022	0.0022	2.51	2.5122	F	F	27.43	191.43	105	458.81724326633	89.445981518724	0.98985342958255	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-08 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	51.04	32.67	41.855	198.09647973309	0.0467	0.2467	2.51	2.7567	F	F	19.04	168.04	105	459.92470691795	91.109465382719	0.90707230736447	86	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-08 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	58.33	37.29	47.81	196.77843234964	0.0178	0.0178	2.5	2.5178	F	F	26.33	185.33	105	459.46201358437	90.412214757341	0.98572998296979	86	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-08 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	44.09	32.55	38.32	199.01748258746	0.0006	0.0306	2.51	2.5406	F	F	12.09	161.09	105	460.24710179659	91.597219567732	0.69122666960487	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-08 09:00:04	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	38.31	35.78	37.045	197.18581040387	0.0006	0.0006	2.52	2.5206	F	F	6.31	159.31	105	459.60518685577	90.627621235976	0.42655080477163	86	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-04-08 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	37.38	34.74	36.06	197.58956986634	0.0006	0.0006	2.52	2.5206	F	F	5.38	157.38	105	459.7469422669	90.84120056988	0.38388366426408	86	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-04-08 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	198	-88	35.58	35.58	35.58	197.08120849108	0	0	2.48	2.48	F	F	3.58	161.58	105	459.56843858314	90.572303260322	0.30556382169204	86	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L