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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 13, 2020

[ Sunday, April 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 14, 2020 ]

DAY 196 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/14/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.560
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 102

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 186 in
SWE DAY: 103
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 84.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020196-9043.7100824.4099434.06001186.121675003.473.47FF11.71008101.71008103454.57846000738 84.6069043954940.5601608046235786 3111122.5DRYL
2020-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020196-8933.2833.2833.28186.99300266667003.473.47FF1.2891.28104455.4376911762985.1636614006280.21259135232734861111121.5DRYL
2020-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020196-8946.230.9238.56186.53641235440.00460.00463.473.4746FF14.2104.2104455.2723761820884.9248756970680.64723886580649863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2020196-8946.6224.7435.68186.453989333330.00970.00973.473.4797FF14.62104.62104455.2425133251484.8817827236050.6613254498768863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2020196-8946.8926.9436.915186.834001055830.01190.01193.473.4819FF14.89104.89104455.3801441455585.0804943320950.67026492984937863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-12 23:59:39FORECAST2020196-9047.7325.736.715190.460805057770.0090.0193.473.489FF15.73109.73103456.1493898275186.8785800131570.69744287525164863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020196-9048.2625.2936.775190.428341415190.01060.02063.473.4906FF16.26110.26103456.1377009230986.8615458437230.71405689920916864111123DRYL
2020-04-12 16:00:55FORECAST2020196-9048.125.3936.745190.42902767420.00480.01483.473.4848FF16.1110.1103456.1379480284486.8619059283620.70908716524722864111123DRYL
2020-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020196-9048.0628.7738.415190.084641044750.00270.01273.473.4827FF16.06110.06103456.0138885499686.6812363164390.70783845995183864111123DRYL
2020-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020196-904827.9637.98190.093342392960.00250.01253.473.4825FF16110103456.0170244004886.685800356380.70596074473274864111123DRYL
2020-04-12 03:59:40FORECAST2020196-9048.0427.5237.78190.224880197560.00240.03243.473.5024FF16.04109.04103456.064420439286.7547997404160.70721317440044864111123DRYL
2020-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2020196-9047.5527.4937.52190.138377489950.00070.02073.473.4907FF15.55109.55103456.0332533447286.7094228724280.69170363763141863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020196-9047.5927.3537.47190.117328861690.00030.03033.473.5003FF15.59124.59103456.0256684469186.6983819774920.69298314376541863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020196-9047.6927.5237.605190.080772927960.00020.03023.473.5002FF15.69124.69103456.0124945097186.6792074212140.69617162731523863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2020196-9048.4627.6538.055189.820233024010.00120.02123.473.4912FF16.46125.46103455.9185663467486.5425685039130.72021177987377864111123DRYL
2020-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2020196-9048.3827.9438.16189.852449345170.00190.03193.473.5019FF16.38121.38103455.9301841348486.5594621883950.71775754303376864111123DRYL
2020-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020196-9048.1727.8838.025189.549703221330.00160.01163.473.4816FF16.17126.17103455.8209708879986.4007297538780.7112663834218864111123DRYL
2020-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020196-9048.5728.0438.305191.5620600387500.043.473.51FF16.57114.57103456.5453388538887.4567656119380.72356937685862864111123DRYL
2020-04-10 20:00:52FORECAST2020196-9048.7728.1638.465192.564077134630.00020.03023.493.5202FF16.77130.77103456.904646477987.9834215875420.72962307215427864111123DRYL
2020-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2020196-9048.928.2338.565192.54046267640.00040.03043.493.5204FF16.9130.9103456.896189220987.9710036676770.73352216723703864111123DRYL
2020-04-10 13:00:02FORECAST2020196-9048.9128.0338.47192.529371539680.00050.04053.493.5305FF16.91132.91103456.8922168778987.9651713768730.73382091682535864111123DRYL
2020-04-10 09:00:02FORECAST2020196-9043.7128.7336.22191.410190378590.00120.03123.493.5212FF11.71127.71103456.4908009253387.376991111190.56015793447735863111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 04:58:25FORECAST2020196-9052.0528.740.375191.347539507070.0010.0213.493.511FF20.05132.05103456.4682962344687.3440853474510.81862321913587864111123DRYL
2020-04-10 01:00:02FORECAST2020196-9052.0827.6639.87198.587186202860.00120.01123.493.5012FF20.08142.08103459.0452755060191.1605096024560.81934222833686864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 21:00:03FORECAST2020196-9052.3226.5839.45199.634071076820.00160.01163.493.5016FF20.32143.32103459.4140119108591.7146895074980.82502994465001864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 17:00:03FORECAST2020196-9052.5730.1841.375199.560367165490.00140.01143.493.5014FF20.57144.57103459.3880838081391.67565467620.8308326995946864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 13:00:02FORECAST2020196-9052.6130.1941.4199.572258925160.00140.01143.493.5014FF20.61143.61103459.3922675070191.6819525591230.83174956985697864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:52:25FORECAST2020196-9052.6130.1941.4198.439674925160.00140.01143.493.5014FF20.61143.61103458.9932398582291.082469310310.83174956985697864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:50:08FORECAST2020196-9052.6130.1941.4198.439674925160.00140.01143.493.5014FF20.61143.61103458.9932398582291.082469310310.83174956985697864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:47:43FORECAST2020196-9052.6130.1941.4198.439674925160.00140.01143.493.5014FF20.61143.61103458.9932398582291.082469310310.83174956985697864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:46:41FORECAST2020196-9052.6130.1941.4198.439674925160.00140.01143.493.5014FF20.61143.61103458.9932398582291.082469310310.83174956985697864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 09:00:02FORECAST2020196-9052.4730.8441.655198.533554511730.00130.02133.483.5013FF20.47132.47103459.026358802891.1321346276980.82852655295067864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 05:00:02FORECAST2020196-9051.130.8340.965198.238973057210.00130.02133.483.5013FF19.1135.1103458.9224095362990.9763071794160.79493753050151864111123DRYL
2020-04-09 00:58:29FORECAST2020196-9051.1430.8340.985198.012199491090.00130.03133.493.5213FF19.14140.14103458.8423347095190.8563799154570.79597038895599864111123DRYL
2020-04-08 21:00:03FORECAST2020196-9050.7430.9340.835199.305607186210.00080.03083.493.5208FF18.74136.74103459.2984250786591.5407514899710.78550307992185864111123DRYL
2020-04-08 17:00:03FORECAST2020196-9051.930.941.4199.286757682970.00080.03083.483.5108FF19.9135.9103459.2917889898791.5307714582020.81500141971114864111123DRYL
2020-04-08 13:00:02FORECAST2020196-9047.8229.5638.69199.66445466560.00080.03083.493.5208FF15.82134.82103459.424699059891.730781997680.70029443554428864111123DRYL
2020-04-08 09:00:04FORECAST2020196-9049.6529.9639.805198.453410832940.00080.04083.493.5308FF17.65132.65103458.9980861202291.0897357563480.75544848737806864111123DRYL
2020-04-08 05:00:03FORECAST2020196-9049.0629.4839.27198.512621874340.00080.04083.493.5308FF17.06134.06103459.018974847991.1210601871270.7382817439378864111123DRYL
2020-04-08 01:00:04FORECAST2020196-9050.3128.6239.465198.0997953423800.013.483.49FF18.31137.31103458.8732706892690.9027010116310.77391060981601864111123DRYL
2020-04-07 21:00:03FORECAST2020196-9051.2128.8740.04198.0319508183100.033.483.51FF19.21143.21103458.8493108310890.8668241555170.79777043074781864111123DRYL
2020-04-07 17:00:03FORECAST2020196-9050.8228.5539.685197.866664003600.023.493.51FF18.82142.82103458.7909211315590.7794290394370.78762111516874864111123DRYL
2020-04-07 13:00:02FORECAST2020196-9050.8528.5639.705197.9226821920200.023.483.5FF18.85142.85103458.8107130254890.8090469404370.78841222292808864111123DRYL
2020-04-07 08:59:44FORECAST2020196-9049.2931.9340.61197.630045398010.00940.02943.463.4894FF17.29135.29103458.7072898798990.6543425233620.74504650106199864111123DRYL
2020-04-07 04:58:39FORECAST2020196-9047.8433.2740.555197.199517413810.03430.09433.463.5543FF15.84138.84103458.5549936774590.4268234608880.70092646028112864112126DRYL
2020-04-07 01:00:03FORECAST2020196-9047.8733.2840.575205.446419457440.03430.09433.483.5743FF15.87147.87103461.4435130896494.801917546130.70187336213346864112126DRYL
2020-04-06 21:00:02FORECAST2020196-9047.9931.2439.615201.05642982080.03380.18383.493.6738TF15.99134.99103459.9134301811192.4685522988540.70564725117654864112126DRYL
2020-04-06 17:00:02FORECAST2020196-9051.8630.1541.005201.140551875310.00020.17023.493.6602TF19.86139.86103459.9429106243792.5131708741210.81402808623427864112126DRYL
2020-04-06 14:28:38FORECAST2020196-9050.430.1640.28201.588067837470.00020.17023.483.6502TF18.4132.4103460.099636052392.7505966445080.77636577871105864112126DRYL
2020-04-06 12:59:45FORECAST2020196-9049.8635.0942.475204.918827889670.00050.10053.483.5805FF17.86145.86103461.2605275478394.5209666568740.76140923333384864112126DRYL
2020-04-06 09:00:02FORECAST2020196-9037.233.9735.585205.6912567487900.043.473.51FF5.2132.2103461.5283471853894.9323457577520.32967071931283862111122DRYL
2020-04-06 05:00:02FORECAST2020196-9035.5833.2534.415205.7691280620600.063.473.53FF3.58127.58103461.5553178948194.9738353156210.27819993494174862111122DRYL
2020-04-06 01:00:04FORECAST2020196-9032.9332.9332.93205.692626859450.01440.26443.463.7244TF0.93122.93103461.5288217689794.9330757210070.20346404319604861112123DRYL