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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 12, 2020

[ Saturday, April 11, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, April 13, 2020 ]

DAY 195 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/13/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.455
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 91

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 187 in
SWE DAY: 102
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 85.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-13 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020195-9140.3725.1299432.74997187.30769625003.613.61FF8.3791.37102454.4655489779 85.1248950040420.4550683515078987 2111122DRYL
2020-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020195-9043.8529.3436.595190.6533302860.01090.01093.613.6209FF11.8594.85103456.2186909257186.9796127637060.58271350418491873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020195-9043.8325.8834.855190.645879033370.01310.01313.613.6231FF11.8394.83103456.2160094141386.9757021438550.58199167580621873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-12 03:59:40FORECAST2020195-9042.8926.9834.935190.763503949130.02680.02683.613.6368FF10.8993.89103456.2583336326187.0374384297490.54779549043013873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2020195-9144.4126.8835.645190.663840660440.01880.01883.613.6288FF12.4195.41102455.6830744388786.882285096470.60280304012848873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020195-9144.5124.8334.67190.643785242580.01310.03313.613.6431FF12.51109.51102455.6758296158886.8717650015230.60636357368024873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020195-9144.792635.395190.612772068230.00720.02723.613.6372FF12.79109.79102455.6646256841986.8554974350950.61628499224011873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2020195-9145.0226.8635.94190.385862350650.00460.02463.613.6346FF13.02110.02102455.5826246006986.7364908565770.62437841839404873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2020195-9145.0127.8536.43190.450543222040.0050.0253.613.635FF13.01106.01102455.6060039182686.7704109414560.62402763665337873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020195-9145.1427.7236.43190.15147505050.00420.01423.613.6242FF13.14111.14102455.4978716157486.6135921700940.62857970846178873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020195-9144.6727.8536.26192.162354705420.00150.04153.613.6515FF12.6798.67102456.2233552845787.6689542230890.61204186361322873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 20:00:52FORECAST2020195-9145.0728.0536.56193.17207980130.00150.05153.613.6615FF13.07115.07102456.586248067588.199715147870.6261307805607873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2020195-9145.3428.136.72193.15611867640.00080.05083.613.6608FF13.34115.34102456.580518914288.1913208967240.63554772729126873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 13:00:02FORECAST2020195-9145.6127.9836.795193.133414292960.00060.06063.613.6706FF13.61116.61102456.5723689071188.1793804788580.64488360112171873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 09:00:02FORECAST2020195-9146.3528.5537.45191.99067297240.00250.05253.613.6625FF14.35117.35102456.161560650787.5787650134660.67001478370206873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 04:58:25FORECAST2020195-9146.5128.6437.575192.149226173740.00210.04213.613.6521FF14.51112.51102456.2186307897587.6620568722940.6753538728594873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 01:00:02FORECAST2020195-9146.5429.1937.865199.458734258090.00330.02333.623.6433FF14.54122.54102458.8248399195491.516621816520.67635099811738873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 21:00:03FORECAST2020195-9147.4229.9238.67200.536700821340.00180.02183.623.6418FF15.42124.42102459.2051117489392.0874781104270.70501332995044874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 17:00:03FORECAST2020195-9147.7930.0538.92200.494347165490.00120.02123.623.6412FF15.79124.79102459.19019038892.0650374466370.71670540873285874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 13:00:02FORECAST2020195-9149.3130.339.805200.508425591820.0020.0223.623.642FF17.31124.31102459.1951504515492.0724966564380.76226851549822874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:52:25FORECAST2020195-9149.3130.339.805199.375841591820.0020.0223.623.642FF17.31124.31102458.795554927291.4727498821980.76226851549822874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:50:08FORECAST2020195-9149.3130.339.805199.375841591820.0020.0223.623.642FF17.31124.31102458.795554927291.4727498821980.76226851549822874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:47:43FORECAST2020195-9149.3130.339.805199.375841591820.0020.0223.623.642FF17.31124.31102458.795554927291.4727498821980.76226851549822874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 12:46:41FORECAST2020195-9149.3130.339.805199.375841591820.0020.0223.623.642FF17.31124.31102458.795554927291.4727498821980.76226851549822874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 09:00:02FORECAST2020195-9140.8127.5834.195199.451134511730.00050.03053.613.6405FF8.81112.81102458.8221552763491.5125994089850.4712251092645872111122DRYL
2020-04-09 05:00:02FORECAST2020195-9148.727.3638.03199.127399085380.00060.02063.623.6406FF16.7116.7102458.7077462037791.3412804418720.74447929682562874111123DRYL
2020-04-09 00:58:29FORECAST2020195-9148.7225.9637.34198.902958465070.00090.04093.623.6609FF16.72121.72102458.6283729761291.222540220970.74507336112545874111123DRYL
2020-04-08 21:00:03FORECAST2020195-9146.7224.0135.365200.104109392810.00850.03853.623.6585FF14.72118.72102459.0526325151491.8583181938660.6823070057776873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 17:00:03FORECAST2020195-9146.5226.2336.375200.180448349640.00830.03833.613.6483FF14.52116.52102459.0795525416691.8987506559410.67568638796146873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 13:00:02FORECAST2020195-9148.7429.1638.95200.246865023710.00020.05023.613.6602FF16.74119.74102459.1029693471491.933930334840.74566670288746874111123DRYL
2020-04-08 09:00:03FORECAST2020195-9148.8428.9538.895199.184796166270.00020.06023.613.6702FF16.84115.84102458.7280373664291.3716506185840.74862253390934874111123DRYL
2020-04-08 05:00:03FORECAST2020195-9148.9829.0839.03199.18034498270.00020.06023.613.6702FF16.98117.98102458.7264638784491.3692953280010.75273003702478874111123DRYL
2020-04-08 01:00:04FORECAST2020195-9149.9428.4839.21198.789360675710.00120.02123.613.6312FF17.94119.94102458.5881819677491.1624515068040.77990535417965874111123DRYL
2020-04-07 21:00:03FORECAST2020195-9150.128.5839.34198.776073484980.00250.04253.613.6525FF18.1125.1102458.5834801891591.1554235570760.78426223729041874111123DRYL
2020-04-07 17:00:03FORECAST2020195-9149.9928.5339.26198.601438670270.00250.05253.63.6525FF17.99124.99102458.5216695142691.0630632270240.78127226378239874111123DRYL
2020-04-07 13:00:02FORECAST2020195-9150.0228.5439.28198.659643525350.00250.04253.63.6425FF18.02125.02102458.542273729891.0938446404680.7820900632496874111123DRYL
2020-04-07 08:59:44FORECAST2020195-9148.4731.239.835198.431868739110.01610.01613.63.6161FF16.47119.47102458.4616252747290.9733970484330.73759600149443874111123DRYL
2020-04-07 04:58:39FORECAST2020195-9149.2931.6440.465197.968860648890.05610.05613.63.6561FF17.29124.29102458.2975436275190.7286425501210.76169622131951874111123DRYL
2020-04-07 01:00:03FORECAST2020195-9149.3231.6540.485206.217609825030.05610.05613.623.6761FF17.32133.32102461.1920411862395.105920403750.76255438007358874111123DRYL
2020-04-06 21:00:02FORECAST2020195-9145.5531.638.575201.623166555210.01890.15893.623.7789TF13.55119.55102459.5873297162392.6634527260390.64281623021518873112125DRYL
2020-04-06 17:00:02FORECAST2020195-914630.7738.385201.722737217140.0260.1763.623.796TF14121102459.6223058788492.7162696279330.65821540417619873112125DRYL
2020-04-06 14:28:38FORECAST2020195-9146.0230.7838.4201.958374593390.0260.1763.613.786TF14.02115.02102459.7050429348492.8412832635060.65889396953018873112125DRYL
2020-04-06 12:59:45FORECAST2020195-9149.7132.7741.24205.519122556340.02580.10583.613.7158TF17.71128.71102460.9492844328894.7338924796180.7735549283281874112126DRYL
2020-04-06 09:00:02FORECAST2020195-9152.6131.9842.295205.865588748790.00230.05233.63.6523FF20.61127.61102461.0697513523794.9183958164120.84585783221049874111123DRYL
2020-04-06 05:00:02FORECAST2020195-9146.9533.4740.21205.834454728720.02630.05633.613.6663FF14.95124.95102461.0589303322194.9018135227380.68984922567463873111122.5DRYL
2020-04-06 01:00:04FORECAST2020195-9143.0733.5238.295205.613510859450.20170.25173.63.8517TF11.07123.07102460.9821139233194.7841508871840.55437929930254873112125DRYL
2020-04-05 21:00:02FORECAST2020195-9143.0233.6638.34208.25761263020.52650.82653.64.4265TF11.02121.02102461.8985760458496.1938947245970.55255188789153873113127.5WETL
2020-04-05 17:00:45FORECAST2020195-9143.5233.7938.655207.569312550770.51940.86943.64.4694TF11.52120.52102461.6605992122195.8265732102570.57076947574846873113127.5WETL
2020-04-05 12:59:46FORECAST2020195-9137.1233.8135.465207.786547252880.40230.75233.64.3523TF5.12113.12102461.7357521276595.9424776778140.33968887260222872113126WETL
2020-04-05 09:00:02FORECAST2020195-9133.2529.931.575211.082803593530.09341.06343.634.6934TF1.2595.25102462.8710269110497.70411406260.22031878666638871114126WETL
2020-04-05 05:00:02FORECAST2020195-9132.4631.1631.81211.49482231830.06021.01023.634.6402TF0.4691.46102463.0122645354897.9246966191230.19928620149561871114126WETL
2020-04-05 00:59:47FORECAST2020195-9132.4832.4832.48211.519358766390.04370.99373.624.6137TF0.4892.48102463.0206708249697.9378353884810.19980332130229871114126WETL