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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 10, 2020

[ Thursday, April 9, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 11, 2020 ]

DAY 193 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/11/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.828
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 85

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 191 in
SWE DAY: 100
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 86.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020193-9349.7899435.5142.64997190.8345920833300.014.074.08TF17.7899484.78994100454.66024594412 86.7649025712550.828003537013588 4111123WETL
2020-04-11 00:00:01FORECAST2020193-9236.3336.3336.33192.976329333330.00340.01344.074.0834TF4.3371.33101455.9776871186987.9929003180680.31532537275801882111122WETL
2020-04-10 09:00:01FORECAST2020193-9251.636.744.15192.9564680.01510.02514.074.0951TF19.686.6101455.9705272715387.9824624544120.87251722144674885111123.5WETL
2020-04-10 04:58:25FORECAST2020193-9247.3636.6942.025193.138997750.02070.03074.074.1007TF15.3682.36101456.0363141520988.0783966529390.75445997862734884111123WETL
2020-04-10 01:00:02FORECAST2020193-9354.1236.7745.445200.473597333330.01410.03414.074.1041TF22.1292.12100458.1246131199191.841889219090.92013602502554885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 21:00:03FORECAST2020193-9353.6236.0144.815201.605781333330.0130.0334.074.103TF21.6291.62100458.5259944075292.4414913641710.91195050858362885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 17:00:03FORECAST2020193-9353.5235.8844.7201.602993333330.00820.02824.074.0982TF21.5291.52100458.5250074242192.440014014910.91024111719707885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 13:00:02FORECAST2020193-9353.2135.6644.435201.610373333330.00640.02644.074.0964TF21.2191.21100458.5276200118492.4439246542310.9047858628644885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 12:52:25FORECAST2020193-9353.2135.6644.435200.477789333330.00640.02644.074.0964TF21.2191.21100458.1261013955891.8441080436840.9047858628644885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 12:50:08FORECAST2020193-9353.2135.6644.435200.477789333330.00640.02644.074.0964TF21.2191.21100458.1261013955891.8441080436840.9047858628644885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 12:47:43FORECAST2020193-9353.2135.6644.435200.477789333330.00640.02644.074.0964TF21.2191.21100458.1261013955891.8441080436840.9047858628644885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 12:46:41FORECAST2020193-9353.2135.6644.435200.477789333330.00640.02644.074.0964TF21.2191.21100458.1261013955891.8441080436840.9047858628644885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 09:00:02FORECAST2020193-9352.4635.6344.045200.173405333330.00740.01744.074.0874TF20.4690.46100458.0179954672991.6830218566340.8905891963742885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 05:00:02FORECAST2020193-9352.9335.2344.08199.992240.00350.02354.074.0935TF20.9386.93100457.9536125594691.5871687918580.89965281109487885111123.5WETL
2020-04-09 00:58:29FORECAST2020193-9352.1634.9243.54199.730660.00570.02574.074.0957TF20.1692.16100457.860599436291.4487997133880.8845057634087885111123.5WETL
2020-04-08 21:00:03FORECAST2020193-9351.7634.6743.215200.884765333330.00560.02564.074.0956TF19.7690.76100458.2705136821392.0595646002220.87602729654608885111123.5WETL
2020-04-08 17:00:03FORECAST2020193-9350.4234.1942.305200.901493333330.01220.02224.074.0922TF18.4289.42100458.276446290192.0684224191740.84450556888787884111123WETL
2020-04-08 13:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.8433.2742.055201.002641594340.01580.02584.074.0958TF18.8489.84100458.312313288892.1219856462610.8549071487361885111123.5WETL
2020-04-08 09:00:03FORECAST2020193-9349.4933.0141.25199.860125391060.01710.02714.074.0971TF17.4988.49100457.9066427149391.5172790304040.81976972515521884111123WETL
2020-04-08 05:00:03FORECAST2020193-9349.5432.741.12200.038842890670.01940.02944.074.0994TF17.5484.54100457.9701772207891.6118243296790.8211591807516884111123WETL
2020-04-08 01:00:04FORECAST2020193-9346.0533.7639.905199.947399864390.01320.02324.074.0932TF14.0586.05100457.9376726056791.5634469374520.7087343537177884111123WETL
2020-04-07 21:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.7734.7442.755199.802893772030.01410.02414.074.0941TF18.7789.77100457.886290637691.4870058879330.85320677746825885111123.5WETL
2020-04-07 17:00:03FORECAST2020193-9351.1635.6843.42199.753727748630.02590.02594.074.0959TF19.1690.16100457.868804395891.4610004978670.86251147355091885111123.5WETL
2020-04-07 13:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.5135.4943199.815643791530.01510.01514.074.0851TF18.5189.51100457.8908249150991.4937499666460.84677478130354884111123WETL
2020-04-07 08:59:44FORECAST2020193-9347.8136.6442.225199.673123955930.00480.00484.074.0748TF15.8185.81100457.8401323653691.4183695017870.76922905611217884111123WETL
2020-04-07 04:58:39FORECAST2020193-9352.736.2544.475199.174313325940.00420.00424.074.0742TF20.788.7100457.6625669922691.1546275156710.89528808904485885111123.5WETL
2020-04-07 01:00:03FORECAST2020193-9352.7336.2844.505207.424150145740.00410.00414.094.0941TF20.7397.73100460.5706094553595.5334672483830.89586504825347885111123.5WETL
2020-04-06 21:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.2733.7241.995202.927427102740.00610.00614.094.0961TF18.2790.27100458.993085745493.1422859482610.84067465506272884111123WETL
2020-04-06 17:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.2634.1942.225202.882185937520.00780.00784.094.0978TF18.2693.26100458.9771226791793.1182819444640.84041708754316884111123WETL
2020-04-06 14:28:38FORECAST2020193-9350.2834.242.24203.118986419790.00780.00784.084.0878TF18.2887.28100459.0606559461893.2439351409930.84093195092385884111123WETL
2020-04-06 12:59:45FORECAST2020193-9351.9737.1144.54207.365166122920.00780.00784.084.0878TF19.9794.97100460.5500333046795.5020341641410.880531133835885111123.5WETL
2020-04-06 09:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.6335.2342.93207.641431235240.01290.01294.074.0829TF18.6388.63100460.64637980795.6492735964610.84976618640192885111123.5WETL
2020-04-06 05:00:02FORECAST2020193-9353.9235.5644.74207.562590878240.00370.00374.084.0837TF21.9290.92100460.6188913987495.6072505061850.91693345950385885111123.5WETL
2020-04-06 01:00:04FORECAST2020193-9354.0535.5844.815207.354464523970.00280.00284.074.0728TF22.0595.05100460.5462997987195.496331383260.91902588458431885111123.5WETL
2020-04-05 21:00:02FORECAST2020193-9353.7135.9744.84207.48471980630.00240.00244.074.0724TF21.7195.71100460.5917355364295.5657471928730.91346817157367885111123.5WETL
2020-04-05 17:00:45FORECAST2020193-9352.6235.1343.875207.542029240460.00180.00184.074.0718TF20.6294.62100460.6117214914695.596291370280.89373825793668885111123.5WETL
2020-04-05 12:59:46FORECAST2020193-9352.6635.1543.905207.474859568660.00180.00184.074.0718TF20.6693.66100460.5882966073895.5604921575850.89451522544296885111123.5WETL
2020-04-05 09:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.8233.7742.295208.05131215430.00050.00054.14.1005TF18.8283.82100460.7891998548795.8677976563350.85442268290807885111123.5WETL
2020-04-05 05:00:02FORECAST2020193-9350.4533.541.975208.328744450780.00070.00074.14.1007TF18.4583.45100460.8857847891996.0157568803450.84526441733733884111123WETL
2020-04-05 00:59:46FORECAST2020193-9350.4933.5242.005208.199175513810.00070.00074.094.0907TF18.4984.49100460.8406852913895.9466507208850.84627241291808884111123WETL
2020-04-04 21:00:03FORECAST2020193-9349.6132.8841.245208.73668384550.05140.05144.124.1714TF17.6178.61100461.0276807425196.2333892391730.82309308414483884111123WETL
2020-04-04 17:00:03FORECAST2020193-9345.863439.93208.558530791750.20310.20314.194.3931TF13.8684.86100460.9657308041396.1383355618530.7017867094032884112126WETL
2020-04-04 13:00:02FORECAST2020193-9353.9836.4245.2207.258781580460.0050.0054.164.165TF21.9895.98100460.5129140298395.4453454638910.91790417564651885111123.5WETL
2020-04-04 09:00:02FORECAST2020193-9354.0236.4445.23207.120874759240.0050.0054.174.175TF22.02100.02100460.4647811948595.3718682768970.9185465721132885111123.5WETL
2020-04-04 05:00:42FORECAST2020193-9357.7637.8347.795207.377935293570.00890.00894.224.2289TF25.76102.76100460.5544879991595.5088388114520.96352599141149885111123.5WETL
2020-04-04 00:58:44FORECAST2020193-9357.5837.847.69207.244540266870.00920.00924.24.2092TF25.58103.58100460.507944245695.437757194420.96196769580123885111123.5WETL
2020-04-03 21:00:03FORECAST2020193-9351.7437.444.57206.457048535350.15420.15424.214.3642TF19.74100.74100460.232853641295.0183166017650.87559226244691885112127WETL
2020-04-03 17:00:02FORECAST2020193-9358.9437.348.12206.111112540940.00120.00124.234.2312TF26.94116.94100460.1118354672394.8341623014040.97249762996973885111123.5WETL
2020-04-03 13:00:03FORECAST2020193-9351.8137.7944.8206.40445534520.00020.00024.24.2002TF19.81108.81100460.2144619125994.9903153530540.87711023483229885111123.5WETL
2020-04-03 08:58:48FORECAST2020193-9334.632.7733.685208.183794111560.0090.0194.24.219TF2.674.6100460.8353304490795.9384475535440.25326855476168882111122WETL
2020-04-03 04:58:53FORECAST2020193-9331.0829.3730.225209.54804557730.04480.12484.284.4048TF-0.9278.08100461.3094648076496.6664967567520.14973071629053881112123WETL
2020-04-03 01:00:04FORECAST2020193-9331.131.131.1213.05379780370.01050.09054.184.2705TF-0.986.1100462.5203511060598.5417173646430.15022546582255881112123WETL