Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 9, 2020

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DAY 192 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/10/2020 05:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.33°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.42°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.906 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 65 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.53 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.55 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 194 in SWE DAY: 99 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.35 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 88.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -94 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-10 04:58:24	OBSERVATION	2020	192	-94	54.33008	40.42004	47.37506	194.22697375	0	0.02	4.53	4.55	T	F	22.33008	65.33008	99	455.34852269973	88.440965565502	0.90556772078567	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 12:52:25	FORECAST	2020	192	-93	57.44	39.18	48.31	201.867416	0.0064	0.0264	4.53	4.5564	T	F	25.44	68.44	100	458.6185849201	92.580148667397	0.94792385755179	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 12:50:08	FORECAST	2020	192	-93	57.44	39.18	48.31	201.867416	0.0064	0.0264	4.53	4.5564	T	F	25.44	68.44	100	458.6185849201	92.580148667397	0.94792385755179	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 12:47:43	FORECAST	2020	192	-93	57.44	39.18	48.31	201.867416	0.0064	0.0264	4.53	4.5564	T	F	25.44	68.44	100	458.6185849201	92.580148667397	0.94792385755179	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 12:46:41	FORECAST	2020	192	-93	57.44	39.18	48.31	201.867416	0.0064	0.0264	4.53	4.5564	T	F	25.44	68.44	100	458.6185849201	92.580148667397	0.94792385755179	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	192	-93	57.1	40.64	48.87	201.53897866667	0.0028	0.0228	4.53	4.5528	T	F	25.1	68.1	100	458.50234359075	92.406094043553	0.94419656183067	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-93	52.64	39.78	46.21	201.431668	0.0125	0.0325	4.53	4.5625	T	F	20.64	63.64	100	458.46434291926	92.34923731275	0.87390817047085	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-09 00:58:29	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.61	39.62	49.115	201.10552666667	0.011	0.031	4.53	4.561	T	F	26.61	69.61	99	457.81748325778	92.069626087763	0.95926509015968	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-08 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.09	39.05	48.57	202.14144266667	0.01	0.03	4.53	4.56	T	F	26.09	69.09	99	458.18558761226	92.618295689016	0.95449892306265	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-08 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.25	39.09	48.67	202.140896	0.0046	0.0246	4.53	4.5546	T	F	26.25	69.25	99	458.18539361401	92.618005999248	0.95601082845564	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-08 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.21	38.9	48.555	202.14833066667	0.0016	0.0216	4.53	4.5516	T	F	26.21	69.21	99	458.18803196717	92.621945793609	0.95563669118103	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-08 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.05	39	48.525	200.96299333333	0.002	0.022	4.53	4.552	T	F	26.05	69.05	99	457.76675934917	91.994178207309	0.95411451073484	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-08 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.77	38.64	48.205	201.10996753339	0.0018	0.0218	4.53	4.5518	T	F	25.77	64.77	99	457.81906335184	92.071976966857	0.95135028291295	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-08 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.78	38.72	48.25	200.96173107369	0.0002	0.0202	4.53	4.5502	T	F	25.78	69.78	99	457.76631006173	91.993510097222	0.95145123984245	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.36	38.4	47.88	201.0340964387	0.0006	0.0206	4.53	4.5506	T	F	25.36	69.36	99	457.79206539172	92.031814222829	0.94706508334187	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.34	38.89	48.115	201.05534108196	0.0002	0.0102	4.53	4.5402	T	F	25.34	69.34	99	457.79962560719	92.043059873646	0.94684865002076	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.01	38.45	47.73	201.03924779153	0.0006	0.0106	4.53	4.5406	T	F	25.01	69.01	99	457.79389861306	92.034541020723	0.94317560778517	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 08:59:44	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.37	37.98	47.675	200.87458795593	0.0009	0.0109	4.53	4.5409	T	F	25.37	68.37	99	457.73528894462	91.947387559638	0.94717303843404	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 04:58:39	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.4	38.02	47.71	200.49713732594	0.001	0.011	4.53	4.541	T	F	25.4	66.4	99	457.60084515107	91.747659490722	0.94749585950391	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-07 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.41	37.82	47.615	208.73090214574	0.0009	0.0109	4.55	4.5609	T	F	25.41	75.41	99	460.50455874993	96.1215319901	0.94760311903287	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	51.94	36.81	44.375	203.9217841829	0.0008	0.0108	4.55	4.5608	T	F	19.94	69.94	99	458.81595924326	93.562569020475	0.85884472416007	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	55.73	36.23	45.98	203.85311312535	0.0006	0.0106	4.55	4.5606	T	F	23.73	72.73	99	458.79169746505	93.526115804316	0.92701682436236	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 14:28:38	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	55.51	35.51	45.51	204.09154617308	0.001	0.001	4.55	4.551	T	F	23.51	66.51	99	458.87591872145	93.652695753454	0.92391708034222	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 12:59:45	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	56.2	36	46.1	208.65830612292	0.0021	0.0021	4.55	4.5521	T	F	24.2	73.2	99	460.47922153301	96.08281436988	0.93331519721077	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	50.5	35.24	42.87	208.75411656858	0.0023	0.0023	4.54	4.5423	T	F	18.5	67.5	99	460.51265998299	96.133913503395	0.82416537686238	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-06 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	55.3	35.45	45.375	208.88382954491	0.0031	0.0031	4.55	4.5531	T	F	23.3	67.3	99	460.55791766582	96.203101569264	0.92086602346388	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	55.33	35.47	45.4	208.68073252397	0.0025	0.0025	4.54	4.5425	T	F	23.33	71.33	99	460.48704921793	96.094774748601	0.92130745592213	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	55.94	34.79	45.365	208.7852398063	0.0002	0.0002	4.54	4.5402	T	F	23.94	71.94	99	460.52352043837	96.150513651167	0.92988490538891	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 17:00:45	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	54.61	35.5	45.055	208.73245057379	0.0002	0.0002	4.54	4.5402	T	F	22.61	71.61	99	460.50509912613	96.122357842325	0.91019037180558	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 12:59:46	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	54.65	35.52	45.085	208.66845156866	0.0002	0.0002	4.54	4.5402	T	F	22.65	70.65	99	460.48276274281	96.088225075602	0.91083700777421	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	54.98	34.49	44.735	209.06980682096	0.002	0.002	4.57	4.572	T	F	22.98	62.98	99	460.62278031079	96.302315696912	0.91604052564375	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	54.12	33.89	44.005	209.29645378411	0.002	0.002	4.57	4.572	T	F	22.12	63.12	99	460.70178576852	96.42325001336	0.90198523823354	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 00:59:46	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	54.16	33.91	44.035	209.16994618048	0.002	0.002	4.56	4.562	T	F	22.16	64.16	99	460.65769287678	96.355744826659	0.90267489704541	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	53.97	33.33	43.65	209.59591060904	0.0004	0.0004	4.59	4.5904	T	F	21.97	58.97	99	460.80610184274	96.58307452993	0.89936723048234	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	55.39	34.93	45.16	209.21675931406	0.0004	0.0004	4.66	4.6604	T	F	23.39	69.39	99	460.67401075246	96.380723629839	0.9221847379454	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58	37.66	47.83	208.7626069138	0.0004	0.0004	4.63	4.6304	T	F	26	72	99	460.51562277454	96.138441934943	0.95363034213225	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.04	37.67	47.855	208.6275974259	0.0004	0.0004	4.64	4.6404	T	F	26.04	76.04	99	460.46850228182	96.066437321359	0.95401800232794	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 05:00:42	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	58.13	36.81	47.47	209.04554196024	0.0004	0.0104	4.68	4.6904	T	F	26.13	75.13	99	460.61431927801	96.289370008118	0.95488074974469	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-04 00:58:44	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	57.81	36.77	47.29	208.88257226687	0.0014	0.0114	4.66	4.6714	T	F	25.81	75.81	99	460.55747906507	96.202430903856	0.95175310912034	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-03 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	60.81	37.69	49.25	207.64900053535	0.002	0.002	4.68	4.682	T	F	28.81	78.81	99	460.12647268508	95.544802172914	0.97516208581197	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-03 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	60.35	37.59	48.97	207.28792187427	0.0021	0.0021	4.7	4.7021	T	F	28.35	88.35	99	460.00005713841	95.352455906265	0.97235652865715	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-03 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	60.34	38.02	49.18	207.0484833452	0.0021	0.0021	4.67	4.6721	T	F	28.34	87.34	99	459.91616448926	95.224944323445	0.97229272652933	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-03 08:58:48	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	50.72	33.21	41.965	208.24659114142	0.0105	0.0105	4.67	4.6805	T	F	18.72	69.72	99	460.33543775384	95.863285693832	0.82978612828817	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-03 04:58:53	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	49.32	31.76	40.54	209.17514421841	0.0797	0.0797	4.75	4.8297	T	F	17.32	77.32	99	460.65950487724	96.358518368276	0.79205324042002	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-03 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	49.35	31.78	40.565	212.9616978037	0.0797	0.0797	4.65	4.7297	T	F	17.35	85.35	99	461.97313556383	98.38258328937	0.79291019140051	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-02 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	53.29	36.58	44.935	211.30555113129	0.0099	0.0099	4.62	4.6299	T	F	21.29	87.29	99	461.40013956918	97.496410783721	0.88686068698962	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-04-02 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	48.42	35.62	42.02	211.67674720516	0.0172	0.0172	4.61	4.6272	T	F	16.42	86.42	99	461.52877617709	97.694910082745	0.76538784998173	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-02 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	41.25	33.03	37.14	213.20813951329	0.0083	0.0083	4.64	4.6483	T	F	9.25	67.25	99	462.05819398346	98.514567886086	0.5033170257428	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:57:18	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	35.92	33.26	34.59	213.94193744877	0.019	0.019	4.61	4.629	T	F	3.92	58.92	99	462.31114648737	98.907742383668	0.30031409447442	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	34.96	33.26	34.11	203.30197606247	0.0149	0.0149	4.65	4.6649	T	F	2.96	50.96	99	458.59682503422	93.23364074543	0.26786224358173	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-04-02 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	34.93	34.5	34.715	203.708493728	0	0	4.73	4.73	T	F	2.93	53.93	99	458.74058897115	93.449354391207	0.26687725984423	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-04-02 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	192	-94	34.62	34.62	34.62	204.0114412918	0	0	4.77	4.77	T	F	2.62	58.62	99	458.84762911444	93.61016614896	0.25680726281714	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L