Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 6, 2020

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DAY 189 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/07/2020 05:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.05°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.01°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.423 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 45 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.51 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.58 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 204 in SWE DAY: 96 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 93.03 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -97 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-07 04:58:39	OBSERVATION	2020	189	-97	38.96006	27.05	33.00503	203.53469791667	0	0.07	4.51	4.58	T	F	6.96006	44.96006	96	457.08294589347	93.032239315288	0.42300616542383	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-04-06 12:59:44	FORECAST	2020	189	-96	42.63	28.97	35.8	211.72755793767	0.015	0.085	4.51	4.595	T	F	10.63	48.63	97	460.50613957314	97.501840347125	0.56874958988572	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-96	42.24	27.63	34.935	211.71399656054	0.0119	0.0819	4.51	4.5919	T	F	10.24	48.24	97	460.50140683674	97.494593263155	0.55335738526676	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-06 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	189	-96	38.88	27.45	33.165	211.842120204	0.0165	0.0865	4.51	4.5965	T	F	6.88	44.88	97	460.54611374301	97.563065187033	0.41987090089791	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-04-06 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.78	27.29	35.035	211.70599207208	0.0139	0.0839	4.51	4.5939	T	F	10.78	48.78	96	459.97549473725	97.379568442193	0.57464329082693	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.77	26.38	34.575	211.70524042178	0.0113	0.0813	4.51	4.5913	T	F	10.77	48.77	96	459.97523141267	97.379166954283	0.57425088068327	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 17:00:45	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.79	25.59	34.19	211.68509317565	0.0076	0.0776	4.51	4.5876	T	F	10.79	48.79	96	459.96817306925	97.368405573996	0.57503562705083	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 12:59:45	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.71	27.06	34.885	211.57161952765	0.0092	0.0792	4.51	4.5892	T	F	10.71	48.71	96	459.92841220548	97.307799037094	0.57189488876103	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-04-05 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.49	27.69	35.09	211.59292367451	0.0097	0.1097	4.51	4.6197	T	F	10.49	49.49	96	459.93587799558	97.31917712789	0.56323493095663	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-05 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.36	26.8	34.58	211.85172141289	0.0103	0.1103	4.51	4.6203	T	F	10.36	45.36	96	460.02653839367	97.457414054313	0.55810312656377	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-05 00:59:46	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.38	26.73	34.055	211.72996967054	0.0037	0.1037	4.51	4.6137	T	F	9.38	47.38	96	459.98389451141	97.39237603384	0.51916305984159	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.62	27.66	34.64	211.78224356204	0.0047	0.1347	4.51	4.6447	T	F	9.62	47.62	96	460.00220520107	97.420299060969	0.52873077214287	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.11	28.26	35.185	211.96813624903	0.0061	0.1961	4.51	4.7061	T	F	10.11	48.11	96	460.06730067856	97.519608273956	0.54820754976608	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	42.25	28.12	35.185	211.91696799063	0.0099	0.1699	4.51	4.6799	T	F	10.25	48.25	96	460.0493857601	97.49227095623	0.55375316531463	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.63	28.18	34.905	211.92911741067	0.0116	0.1816	4.51	4.6916	T	F	9.63	47.63	96	460.0536396992	97.498761823017	0.52912910562698	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 05:00:42	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	40.55	28.01	34.28	212.24398427686	0.021	0.221	4.51	4.731	T	F	8.55	46.55	96	460.16383988514	97.66700679736	0.48602441751817	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-04 00:58:44	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.86	28.85	35.355	212.04930627565	0.0232	0.2032	4.51	4.7132	T	F	9.86	47.86	96	460.09571497438	97.562977180717	0.5382819302837	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.81	29.48	33.645	211.19304718228	0.0128	0.2228	4.51	4.7328	T	F	5.81	44.81	96	459.79567854103	97.105650432323	0.37853041917041	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 17:00:01	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	45.27	26.15	35.71	210.97504124529	0.0061	0.2361	4.51	4.7461	T	F	13.27	53.27	96	459.71918415669	96.989273838706	0.66912086842709	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	44.62	28.78	36.7	210.75755312731	0.0073	0.2073	4.51	4.7173	T	F	12.62	51.62	96	459.64282924728	96.873198004673	0.64520742176203	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 08:58:48	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	40.28	25.99	33.135	211.68190568513	0.0064	0.2064	4.51	4.7164	T	F	8.28	42.28	96	459.96705633749	97.366703037899	0.4752540780579	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 04:58:53	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	45.51	28.59	37.05	211.93142207845	0.0072	0.2072	4.59	4.7972	T	F	13.51	52.51	96	460.05444662961	97.499993107728	0.67778520158019	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	45.52	29.32	37.42	215.70658116296	0.0067	0.2067	4.49	4.6967	T	F	13.52	60.52	96	461.36991737713	99.520527528859	0.67814417066053	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	46.09	26.58	36.335	214.70451073778	0.0038	0.2038	4.47	4.6738	T	F	14.09	57.09	96	461.02197035217	98.983496583831	0.69832242136124	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	46.15	29.42	37.785	214.43750711069	0.0038	0.2338	4.43	4.6638	T	F	14.15	62.15	96	460.92910966399	98.840489231098	0.70041301110946	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-02 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	40.87	26.65	33.76	215.13104236623	0.0695	0.2795	4.41	4.6895	T	F	8.87	54.87	96	461.1701823865	99.212022045033	0.498801849612	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:57:18	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.24	26.88	34.06	215.69635967816	0.0698	0.2298	4.43	4.6598	T	F	9.24	52.24	96	461.3663726591	99.515047060483	0.51357643657399	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.25	26.89	34.07	205.03281859372	0.0698	0.2298	4.47	4.6998	T	F	9.25	45.25	96	457.61776847631	93.826660909266	0.51397558248183	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	39.22	25.02	32.12	205.54035587778	0.0681	0.2181	4.56	4.7781	T	F	7.22	46.22	96	457.79849605476	94.096065799408	0.43321845107355	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	39.24	25.03	32.135	205.78844839574	0.0681	0.2181	4.6	4.8181	T	F	7.24	51.24	96	457.88675390639	94.227804627359	0.4340061341951	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	38.9	26.86	32.88	204.93294829167	0.1296	0.2796	4.6	4.8796	T	F	6.9	44.9	96	457.5821784892	93.773664923516	0.42065366143849	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.83	26.44	32.135	205.39734955503	0.1505	0.3105	4.62	4.9305	T	F	5.83	49.83	96	457.74759689286	94.020143166979	0.37929211080082	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 12:59:48	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.87	26.46	32.165	206.15341709934	0.1505	0.3005	4.66	4.9605	T	F	5.87	49.87	96	458.01648891399	94.421664277459	0.38081689739229	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 08:58:59	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	35.57	24.82	30.195	207.5927063373	0.2247	0.3847	4.72	5.1047	T	F	3.57	37.57	96	458.52694068552	95.186848545469	0.29680978662981	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.45	26.51	31.98	207.71481882543	0.164	0.304	4.83	5.134	T	F	5.45	39.45	96	458.57016272744	95.25181826968	0.3649032369783	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.47	26.53	32	207.66514471057	0.164	0.304	4.82	5.124	T	F	5.47	44.47	96	458.55258205907	95.225388310704	0.36565602546386	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 20:59:49	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.47	25.31	33.39	204.92981677583	0.154	0.224	4.82	5.044	T	F	9.47	52.47	96	457.58106238975	93.77200327562	0.52275254316735	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-31 16:58:57	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.85	27.62	34.735	204.71390634384	0.1252	0.1952	4.85	5.0452	T	F	9.85	56.85	96	457.50408862601	93.657449150911	0.53788436731771	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-31 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	41.87	27.63	34.75	205.6842118006	0.1252	0.1952	4.99	5.1852	T	F	9.87	56.87	96	457.84967895832	94.172450339698	0.53867945500227	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-31 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	32.8	27.86	30.33	212.36668758029	0.4286	0.7586	5.04	5.7986	T	F	0.8	44.8	96	460.20676092817	97.732585420369	0.20869511456104	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-03-31 05:00:34	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	38.31	27.51	32.91	214.18396958876	0.6559	0.9559	5.37	6.3259	T	T	6.31	49.31	96	460.84087401512	98.704727745311	0.39770689062379	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	38.33	27.52	32.925	215.25030403195	0.6559	0.9559	5.53	6.4859	T	T	6.33	54.33	96	461.21159494327	99.275936034601	0.3984794577921	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.66	27.05	32.355	207.24709694181	0.2434	0.4634	5.11	5.5734	T	F	5.66	51.66	96	458.40453862569	95.003009855123	0.37283294943455	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-30 16:59:49	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.88	26.98	32.43	207.57260334102	0.1932	0.6132	4.99	5.6032	T	F	5.88	51.88	96	458.51982389095	95.176153528508	0.38119838438244	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	37.89	28.02	32.955	207.57326120937	0.1135	0.5335	5.13	5.6635	T	F	5.89	55.89	96	458.52005679302	95.176503518432	0.38157998681615	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:28:45	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	34.83	28.75	31.79	216.3241563486	0.1576	1.0976	5.18	6.2776	T	T	2.83	50.83	96	461.58391617106	99.851751249788	0.27169748980755	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:00:34	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	31.67	28.76	30.215	210.38157668561	0.1392	1.0792	5.16	6.2392	T	T	-0.33	47.67	96	459.51073332752	96.672592581406	0.17770829035046	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	32	31.21	31.605	208.52327685832	0.0845	0.9145	5.57	6.4845	T	T	0	57	96	458.85598067426	95.682152696233	0.18644318529857	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-03-30 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	189	-97	31.26	31.26	31.26	209.81307210672	0.011	0.841	6	6.841	T	T	-0.74	59.26	96	459.3107546508	96.369400484942	0.16722117021749	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L