Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 4, 2020

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DAY 187 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/04/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.04°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.76°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.360 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 52 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.37 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.56 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 209 in SWE DAY: 94 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.54 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 96.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -98 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-04 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-98	37.04	20.48	28.76	211.97357933909	0.0158	0.3658	4.19	4.5558	T	F	5.04	52.04	95	459.54445284808	97.411282535633	0.360464993792	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-04 05:00:42	FORECAST	2020	187	-98	36.83	20.64	28.735	212.01340842794	0.0214	0.3714	4.19	4.5614	T	F	4.83	51.83	95	459.55844900156	97.432553144678	0.35149748647935	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-04 00:58:44	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.27	19.52	28.395	212.0595253711	0.0327	0.3827	4.19	4.5727	T	F	5.27	52.27	94	459.04801667774	97.345504539225	0.37037516631723	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.52	19.69	28.605	211.07474405502	0.0378	0.3878	4.19	4.5778	T	F	5.52	52.52	94	458.70026528529	96.820041093062	0.3812452896018	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 17:00:01	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.58	19.06	28.32	211.10625777906	0.0466	0.3966	4.19	4.5866	T	F	5.58	52.58	94	458.7114070625	96.83684854553	0.38386848501463	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	36.92	20	28.46	211.05714018919	0.0335	0.3835	4.19	4.5735	T	F	4.92	51.92	94	458.69404099436	96.810652514094	0.35533093871111	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 08:58:48	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.35	20.65	29	211.58526731175	0.0268	0.3768	4.19	4.5668	T	F	5.35	52.35	94	458.88065264607	97.092385554308	0.37384283309141	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 04:58:53	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.64	20.86	29.75	212.13728298872	0.0296	0.4596	4.19	4.6496	T	F	6.64	51.64	94	459.07543784029	97.387016070296	0.43098404438432	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.46	20.59	29.525	215.88930638473	0.0415	0.3715	4.19	4.5615	T	F	6.46	60.46	94	460.39217098234	99.39374645834	0.4228938310499	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	33.77	20.18	26.975	214.92533725577	0.0328	0.3428	4.19	4.5328	T	F	1.77	54.77	94	460.05507307425	98.877491736713	0.23209506358234	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-04-02 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.87	20.65	29.76	214.59292222356	0.029	0.299	4.19	4.489	T	F	6.87	59.87	94	459.93863674198	98.69957610198	0.44136337906441	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.52	21.64	30.08	214.51759384631	0.0229	0.2729	4.19	4.4629	T	F	6.52	60.52	94	459.91223750626	98.659266570314	0.42558713380029	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:57:18	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	39.01	21.11	30.06	215.16291386603	0.0174	0.2874	4.19	4.4774	T	F	7.01	61.01	94	460.13822975692	99.004682295655	0.44770147970787	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.61	21.38	29.995	204.46915563075	0.018	0.328	4.19	4.518	T	F	6.61	54.61	94	456.34504210275	93.30848543503	0.42963356709303	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.29	22.06	30.175	205.03365493795	0.0363	0.4363	4.19	4.6263	T	F	6.29	54.29	94	456.54786215963	93.607676832697	0.41528275431686	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.22	22.29	30.255	205.32067430529	0.0494	0.4894	4.19	4.6794	T	F	6.22	59.22	94	456.65087444057	93.759865462239	0.41215782533968	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.32	21.23	29.275	204.4699231859	0.0587	0.4987	4.19	4.6887	T	F	5.32	53.32	94	456.34531807662	93.308892133373	0.37254124431951	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.12	21.1	29.11	204.64765211443	0.0725	0.5325	4.19	4.7225	T	F	5.12	58.12	94	456.40920589439	93.403072389697	0.36390178792048	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 12:59:48	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.05	21.38	29.215	205.38509438919	0.0597	0.5597	4.19	4.7497	T	F	5.05	58.05	94	456.6739847223	93.794029457279	0.36089398402239	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 08:58:59	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	30.38	21.34	25.86	205.80021201769	0.071	0.561	4.26	4.821	T	F	-1.62	53.38	94	456.8228147831	94.014232136879	0.13121535812363	88	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-04-01 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	36.13	21.57	28.85	206.32224753408	0.0544	0.6444	4.27	4.9144	T	F	4.13	56.13	94	457.00975496229	94.29127978882	0.32222110508413	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	36.16	21.42	28.79	206.2361004213	0.0525	0.6225	4.28	4.9025	T	F	4.16	61.16	94	456.97892287809	94.245551029103	0.32345504957701	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 20:59:49	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.35	17.23	27.79	204.25727075834	0.0238	0.4938	4.38	4.8738	T	F	6.35	61.35	94	456.26883847902	93.196227679803	0.41796554403027	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 16:58:57	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.59	20.89	29.74	204.11824246087	0.009	0.489	4.4	4.889	T	F	6.59	62.59	94	456.21881516942	93.122582729964	0.42873370506382	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.61	20.91	29.76	205.06245169996	0.009	0.559	4.47	5.029	T	F	6.61	62.61	94	456.55820081055	93.622944001936	0.42963356709303	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	40.4	21.41	30.905	207.7019187746	0.0336	0.6236	4.48	5.1036	T	F	8.4	60.4	94	457.50262170208	95.024172371932	0.51109349844639	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-31 05:00:34	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	40.49	21.55	31.02	209.07127257923	0.016	0.526	4.89	5.416	T	F	8.49	59.49	94	457.99009780871	95.75257257755	0.5152056143142	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-31 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	40.51	21.56	31.035	209.85700298766	0.016	0.596	4.98	5.576	T	F	8.51	63.51	94	458.26904528074	96.170968404632	0.51611921369302	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-30 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.9	21.48	29.69	205.02218501929	0.026	0.346	4.82	5.166	T	F	5.9	60.9	94	456.54374400393	93.601595952574	0.39794609817209	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-30 16:59:49	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	36.58	21.66	29.12	204.92493200248	0.0983	0.3883	4.73	5.1183	T	F	4.58	60.58	94	456.50882149203	93.550039202789	0.34092897335192	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-30 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.71	22.08	29.895	205.23391861393	0.0983	0.4283	4.83	5.2583	T	F	5.71	63.71	94	456.61974543043	93.713859671181	0.38957020936086	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:28:45	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	40.69	23.68	32.185	208.67565257621	0.0826	0.4126	4.88	5.2926	T	F	8.69	70.69	94	457.84943521034	95.542029674165	0.52433722581063	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:00:34	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	40.71	23.68	32.195	202.63088188222	0.0826	0.4226	4.85	5.2726	T	F	8.71	70.71	94	455.68254605982	92.335356166438	0.5252497636497	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-30 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	39.65	24.64	32.145	204.20621663709	0.1022	0.3522	5.35	5.7022	T	F	7.65	73.65	94	456.2504709177	93.169182504994	0.47682157298203	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-30 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	39.69	24.66	32.175	205.67639525863	0.1022	0.3822	5.75	6.1322	T	F	7.69	76.69	94	456.7784397972	93.948542929351	0.47864733125364	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-29 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.42	26.96	32.19	205.01574002369	0.2462	0.6862	5.69	6.3762	T	F	5.42	73.42	94	456.54142994225	93.598179111083	0.37688544841501	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-29 16:59:07	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.55	23.83	30.69	204.61623249514	0.1801	0.6301	5.59	6.2201	T	F	5.55	72.55	94	456.39791365312	93.386421610347	0.38255621395394	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-29 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.58	23.87	30.725	204.90008664518	0.1801	0.6301	5.63	6.2601	T	F	5.58	72.58	94	456.49989840803	93.536868737323	0.38386848501463	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-29 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.15	22.42	30.285	204.82037079866	0.0364	0.3064	5.61	5.9164	T	F	6.15	69.15	94	456.47126506417	93.494613769377	0.4090384550011	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-29 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.49	21.27	29.88	205.0162862647	0.0223	0.2223	5.86	6.0823	T	F	6.49	69.49	94	456.54162607037	93.598468702196	0.42424004024178	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-29 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	36.3	22.54	29.42	207.06233054009	0.3219	0.5019	5.86	6.3619	T	F	4.3	67.3	94	457.27435319627	94.684293269032	0.32923896373189	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-28 20:59:52	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.04	28.54	32.79	211.22727765034	0.3887	1.3187	6.11	7.4287	T	T	5.04	69.04	94	458.75418573472	96.901397763444	0.360464993792	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-03-28 16:59:06	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	38.57	28.05	33.31	206.48070309294	0.2733	1.0633	5.79	6.8533	T	T	6.57	80.57	94	457.06644865256	94.375401677971	0.42783421330413	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-03-28 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	37.55	28.09	32.82	206.22580471735	0.1317	0.9217	5.78	6.7017	T	T	5.55	76.55	94	456.97523759041	94.240086107986	0.38255621395394	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-28 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	35.13	34.12	34.625	201.4380650237	0	0.02	5.47	5.49	T	F	3.13	92.13	94	455.25100864699	91.70488228194	0.28227531136258	88	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-28 04:59:08	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	34.82	34.64	34.73	201.43457529656	0	0.06	5.54	5.6	T	F	2.82	100.82	94	455.249744214	91.703038879617	0.27039372361651	88	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-28 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	187	-99	34.66	34.66	34.66	193.83339866317	0	0.06	5.5	5.56	T	F	2.66	103.66	94	452.46883826866	87.703572710791	0.26436050549059	88	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L