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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 29, 2020

[ Saturday, March 28, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, March 30, 2020 ]

DAY 181 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/29/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.474
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 93

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.60 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 197 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 88.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-29 09:00:02FORECAST2020181-10436.8131.1133.96190.60091750760.60421.61421.73.3142TF4.8192.8189448.45725221285.4763637345450.473548909814629021151210DRYL
2020-03-29 05:00:02FORECAST2020181-10433.4829.6131.545191.161827040150.86871.87871.73.5787TF1.4889.4889448.670013223685.7685794659510.338223974976969021151210DRYL
2020-03-29 01:00:01FORECAST2020181-10533.3831.0432.21191.20867598930.88221.89221.73.5922TF1.3889.3888448.1196848357285.6843716221820.334378427957879021151210DRYL
2020-03-28 20:59:51FORECAST2020181-10532.4629.1930.825190.627106473971.04632.05631.73.7563TF0.4688.4688447.8982678690585.3815507985780.2998536014289021151210DRYL
2020-03-28 16:59:06FORECAST2020181-10536.6229.5933.105190.204636986321.04882.05881.73.7588TF4.6292.6288447.7372187423185.1616951561470.465583560412469021151210DRYL
2020-03-28 13:00:01FORECAST2020181-10532.7729.7931.28190.597926160841.12832.13831.73.8383TF0.7788.7788447.8871496293485.3663618734420.311307505901889021151210DRYL
2020-03-28 09:00:01FORECAST2020181-10532.5529.7231.135192.110645765921.0992.1091.73.809TF0.5588.5588448.462439246386.1544088053640.303159277890399021151210DRYL
2020-03-28 04:59:08FORECAST2020181-10532.6829.7931.235192.909267065471.13482.31481.74.0148TF0.6889.6888448.7652658090986.5709785116720.307962658389599021151210WETL
2020-03-28 01:00:03FORECAST2020181-10532.9229.7331.325185.410574354531.11932.35931.74.0593TF0.9293.9288445.8975205092182.6741153808740.316916890222529021151210WETL
2020-03-27 21:00:02FORECAST2020181-10533.0928.7630.925185.019370921351.19172.49171.74.1917TF1.0994.0988445.74640715982.4717198430120.323325351272839021151210WETL
2020-03-27 17:00:01FORECAST2020181-10532.528.2330.365184.057117672821.14182.43181.74.1318TF0.598.588445.3740701916181.9742676456790.301320778976249021151210WETL
2020-03-27 13:00:02FORECAST2020181-10532.7929.1330.96184.122905846271.03972.37971.74.0797TF0.7997.7988445.3995554441482.0082604110110.312052937113519021151210WETL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020181-10532.528.7930.645186.175140330881.10242.47241.74.1724TF0.592.588446.1924225143583.0699368761830.301320778976249021151210WETL
2020-03-27 05:00:02FORECAST2020181-10532.5928.9930.79186.06397923341.06122.41121.74.1112TF0.5993.5988446.1495819553883.0123665519370.304633675350719021151210WETL
2020-03-27 01:00:02FORECAST2020181-10533.7929.1831.485186.171606884371.12842.43841.74.1384TF1.7993.7988446.1910609396983.0681067925830.350251239399729021151210WETL
2020-03-26 21:00:02FORECAST2020181-10535.3629.1332.245180.488820002451.17552.53551.74.2355TF3.36100.3688443.9853713618780.1343957754530.413257773467749021151210WETL
2020-03-26 17:00:03FORECAST2020181-10531.626.7729.185181.726001780111.13612.58611.74.2861TF-0.491.688444.4682799580480.7714434348590.269122577681979021151210WETL
2020-03-26 13:00:28FORECAST2020181-10535.4429.5932.515181.033654988311.1952.7151.74.415TF3.4499.4488444.1982235561480.4148279496830.416544630049849021151210WETL
2020-03-26 09:00:02FORECAST2020181-10531.8828.0829.98182.532030969010.9572.5571.74.257TF-0.1296.8888444.7820815531581.1869766845210.27895281424499021151210WETL
2020-03-26 05:00:01FORECAST2020181-10532.0828.730.39182.238431074030.76792.46791.684.1479TF0.07999999999999893.0888444.6678522374181.0355717408050.286079600730069021151210WETL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020181-10532.929.3431.12181.64096354690.71782.34781.674.0178TF0.997.988444.4351355701580.7276262590590.316166500739159021151210WETL
2020-03-25 21:00:02FORECAST2020181-10531.8827.3329.605183.623896017970.95642.52641.664.1864TF-0.1291.8888445.2061408745481.7504861185070.27895281424499021151210WETL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020181-10531.5226.2828.9183.38710871361.03082.58081.644.2208TF-0.4893.5288445.1142770951181.6282203236160.266346168590459021151210WETL
2020-03-25 13:00:03FORECAST2020181-10529.5224.7627.14184.593667128611.03082.54081.664.2008TF-2.4888.5288445.581796380982.2515777997020.20193179754788901115127.5WETL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020181-10530.3526.1428.245184.051248327241.01212.45211.664.1121TF-1.6586.3588445.3717962970881.9712350782230.22746063775242901115127.5WETL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020181-10530.4226.9928.705185.082084472841.20942.60941.754.3594TF-1.5886.4288445.7706421428682.5041596445980.22969360208998901115127.5WETL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020181-10530.4226.9928.705184.295921104391.20942.49941.84.2994TF-1.5889.4288445.4665583761482.0976696971320.22969360208998901115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 21:00:04FORECAST2020181-10532.7925.5229.155186.537021920411.60632.80631.994.7963TF0.7984.7988446.3318049012283.2574056746370.312052937113519021151210WETL
2020-03-24 17:00:02FORECAST2020181-10533.7627.5630.66183.697717668030.98451.964523.9645TF1.7688.7688445.2347693565381.7886109572460.349080491725029021151210DRYL
2020-03-24 13:00:03FORECAST2020181-10534.6627.831.23182.839936194391.08932.15932.024.1793TF2.6693.6688444.9017850884881.3458139983470.384780731658719021151210WETL
2020-03-24 10:03:53FORECAST2020181-10534.3927.8331.11183.314192049451.15891.96891.953.9189TF2.3991.3988445.085977286481.5905763187980.373951706197989021151210DRYL
2020-03-24 09:00:04FORECAST2020181-10534.3927.8331.11192.382866739211.15891.94891.93.8489TF2.3991.3988448.5657308292786.2963612179040.373951706197989021151210DRYL
2020-03-24 05:00:03FORECAST2020181-10533.9327.2430.585194.753616139721.2692.1291.884.009TF1.9388.9388449.4622754451787.5344034613310.355733394520179021151210WETL
2020-03-24 01:00:02FORECAST2020181-10533.9327.2430.585194.985446535261.2692.1691.944.109TF1.9392.9388449.5496571513787.6556406394310.355733394520179021151210WETL
2020-03-23 21:00:02FORECAST2020181-10531.6427.0129.325192.946791043211.28842.29842.054.3484TF-0.3689.6488448.7794792979886.5905604165880.270516200596999021151210WETL
2020-03-23 16:59:25FORECAST2020181-10534.8927.5331.21192.466945268361.21542.54542.124.6654TF2.8993.8988448.597619170686.3402134164270.394077245424559021151210WETL
2020-03-23 13:00:02FORECAST2020181-10534.1429.8431.99191.128675096481.20342.88342.175.0534TF2.1488.1488448.089246043585.6427039212730.364012527831439021151210WETL
2020-03-23 09:00:03FORECAST2020181-10537.6628.9133.285191.787672888670.65392.42392.34.7239TF5.6690.6688448.3397976800385.9860464604290.50926776869779031151212.5WETL
2020-03-23 04:59:30FORECAST2020181-10541.0231.1936.1056.95392043800160.24841.25842.373.6284TF9.02100.0288358.729488665992.49457632294830.647045920216199031144240DRYM
2020-03-23 01:00:03FORECAST2020181-10541.0231.1936.105190.547989804330.24841.25842.323.5784TF9.02100.0288447.8681210408385.3403701617720.647045920216199031141210DRYL
2020-03-22 21:00:03FORECAST2020181-10536.8729.7433.305192.219175783480.96442.51442.364.8744TF4.8792.8788448.5036284599786.2109977984780.476066634243759021151210WETL
2020-03-22 17:00:03FORECAST2020181-10534.630.2732.435192.448761490670.88632.37632.344.7163TF2.688.688448.5907232128586.3307290985190.382366167821979021151210WETL
2020-03-22 13:00:03FORECAST2020181-10534.630.2732.435191.384609968030.82162.31162.184.4916TF2.686.688448.186602557685.776018123380.382366167821979021151210WETL
2020-03-22 08:59:27FORECAST2020181-10527.927.2727.585208.864650476970.48192.18192.464.6419TF-4.175.988454.6883680682194.9683270725090.15730991550085901115127.5WETL
2020-03-22 05:00:02FORECAST2020181-10529.0628.6828.87203.723015685710.11541.46542.423.8854TF-2.9479.0688452.8057933963292.2469617506610.18855243107008901114126DRYL
2020-03-22 01:00:03FORECAST2020181-10528.6828.6828.68201.751466449720.0311.3812.173.551TF-3.3283.6888452.0773777168691.2072739031210.17792183536775901114126DRYL