Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 23, 2020

[ Sunday, March 22, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 24, 2020 ]

DAY 175 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/23/2020 09:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.32°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.77°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.208 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.47 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.36 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 177 in SWE DAY: 82 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.12 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.43 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -110 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-23 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-110	30.32	23.21	26.765	185.75876788183	0.4674	0.5074	0.85	1.3574	F	F	-1.68	87.32	83	443.11881318095	82.313204761751	0.20763783649228	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-23 04:59:29	FORECAST	2020	175	-110	30.67	23.29	26.98	2.2424790274333	0.6327	0.6727	0.85	1.5227	F	F	-1.33	87.67	83	351.20721050435	0.78757480383937	0.22048000958408	90	1	1	1	3	4	2	18	DRY	L
2020-03-23 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.03	23.14	26.585	185.96149776072	0.5696	0.6096	0.85	1.4596	F	F	-1.97	93.03	82	442.60951066183	82.308327525814	0.19733921603431	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.27	23.25	26.76	186.33197225114	0.6271	0.6671	0.85	1.5171	F	F	-1.73	93.27	82	442.7555710881	82.499518786023	0.20583994413279	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.92	23.25	27.085	186.39516926841	0.6728	0.7128	0.85	1.5628	F	F	-1.08	93.92	82	442.78047293891	82.532141202194	0.22992465374189	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.75	23.16	26.955	186.06534731724	0.5837	0.6237	0.85	1.4737	F	F	-1.25	93.75	82	442.65046745491	82.361912967137	0.223477897769	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 08:59:27	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.33	23.34	27.335	186.20409927425	0.6045	0.6445	0.85	1.4945	F	F	-0.67	94.33	82	442.70517240273	82.433517871302	0.24589215957028	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.19	23.39	27.29	186.38731859471	0.5992	0.6292	0.85	1.4792	F	F	-0.81	90.19	82	442.77737971438	82.528088539355	0.24037397450963	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.45	23.09	27.27	185.5821159799	0.4742	0.4942	0.85	1.3442	F	F	-0.55	95.45	82	442.4597960074	82.11262517909	0.25067552829473	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.69	23.15	26.92	185.94251043512	0.5205	0.5605	0.85	1.4105	F	F	-1.31	94.69	82	442.60202116148	82.298530938426	0.22122731729569	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-21 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.59	23.1	26.845	185.98776137255	0.5172	0.5472	0.85	1.3972	F	F	-1.41	94.59	82	442.6198696787	82.321878700553	0.21750525889544	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-21 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.71	23.41	27.06	185.90887096405	0.5104	0.5204	0.85	1.3704	F	F	-1.29	93.71	82	442.58875127423	82.281175050778	0.22197606920053	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-21 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.85	23.5	27.175	185.55445823462	0.4984	0.5284	0.85	1.3784	F	F	-1.15	94.85	82	442.44887584489	82.098361453913	0.2272576033953	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-21 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.84	23.16	27	185.68209169016	0.53	0.55	0.85	1.4	F	F	-1.16	96.84	82	442.49926321786	82.164188765646	0.22687802204946	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-21 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.08	23.22	27.15	185.78772168891	0.5551	0.5651	0.85	1.4151	F	F	-0.92	101.08	82	442.54095167336	82.218675165437	0.23608595394469	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.99	22.4	26.695	185.83208060187	0.5638	0.5638	0.85	1.4138	F	F	-1.01	99.99	82	442.55845524586	82.241558526288	0.23260910425627	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.63	22.35	26.49	186.01627431623	0.5823	0.6023	0.85	1.4523	F	F	-1.37	99.63	82	442.63111510526	82.33659092832	0.21898973442961	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 12:59:36	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.95	22.76	26.855	185.46263518236	0.5564	0.5664	0.85	1.4164	F	F	-1.05	96.95	82	442.41261566495	82.05100953914	0.23107300740137	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.49	22.73	27.11	185.51836708728	0.5458	0.5458	0.85	1.3958	F	F	-0.51	99.49	82	442.43462475175	82.079749126816	0.2522808507939	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-20 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.89	23.03	27.46	185.20155291454	0.4797	0.4797	0.85	1.3297	F	F	-0.11	98.89	82	442.30947017106	81.916400744486	0.26862700068364	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-20 01:00:01	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.41	23.03	27.22	185.17347689458	0.4729	0.4729	0.86	1.3329	F	F	-0.59	101.41	82	442.29837413385	81.901927763185	0.24907562430426	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-19 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	32.44	22.98	27.71	185.17519119875	0.4999	0.4999	0.85	1.3499	F	F	0.44	102.44	82	442.29905167361	81.902811460689	0.29193840159275	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-19 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.62	22.8	26.71	185.27088994199	0.5017	0.5017	0.85	1.3517	F	F	-1.38	99.62	82	442.33686974773	81.952145512317	0.21861807124726	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-19 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.62	22.8	26.71	185.40583663686	0.5017	0.5117	0.85	1.3617	F	F	-1.38	97.62	82	442.39018214529	82.021721840583	0.21861807124726	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-19 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	31.31	22.57	26.94	185.41367422026	0.5575	0.5575	0.84	1.3975	F	F	-0.69	93.31	82	442.39327792024	82.025763109536	0.24509971393353	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-19 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.73	23.26	26.995	185.29894563672	0.5194	0.5194	0.84	1.3594	F	F	-1.27	93.73	82	442.34795500925	81.966609667775	0.22272626334888	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-19 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.73	23.26	26.995	185.3251881199	0.5194	0.5194	0.86	1.3794	F	F	-1.27	97.73	82	442.35832312638	81.980139449802	0.22272626334888	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.96	22.33	26.645	185.81305587506	0.5019	0.5619	0.84	1.4019	F	F	-1.04	94.96	82	442.55094852514	82.231744125861	0.23145650088961	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 17:00:14	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.16	22.45	26.305	185.72317554353	0.4628	0.5228	0.86	1.3828	F	F	-1.84	91.16	82	442.51547890291	82.185379969013	0.20191717424333	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 13:00:14	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	30.16	22.45	26.305	185.91337282023	0.4628	0.5228	0.86	1.3828	F	F	-1.84	87.16	82	442.59052720389	82.28349769076	0.20191717424333	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:54:00	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	33.83	24.96	29.395	183.82986333453	0.2076	0.2376	0.86	1.0976	F	F	1.83	86.83	82	441.76643307729	81.209863018381	0.35466630327804	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:52:31	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	33.83	24.96	29.395	192.82986333453	0.2076	0.2376	0.86	1.0976	F	F	1.83	86.83	82	445.2951594065	85.866204731885	0.35466630327804	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-18 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	33.83	24.96	29.395	192.98327619764	0.2076	0.2476	0.86	1.1076	F	F	1.83	84.83	82	445.35461314774	85.945992314984	0.35466630327804	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-18 05:00:04	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	38.81	27.59	33.2	191.90468980589	0.0524	0.0924	0.87	0.9624	F	F	6.81	87.81	82	444.93612538188	85.385329124844	0.60029923855554	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 00:59:39	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	38.81	27.59	33.2	191.36877989617	0.0524	0.0924	0.86	0.9524	F	F	6.81	97.81	82	444.72776746965	85.107010246614	0.60029923855554	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 20:59:42	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	36.48	27.53	32.005	192.70308605465	0.2878	0.3278	0.88	1.2078	F	F	4.48	87.48	82	445.24601055408	85.800280287294	0.48437568838161	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-17 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	34.04	27.27	30.655	192.88541972843	0.276	0.336	0.9	1.236	F	F	2.04	86.04	82	445.31669245074	85.895097135437	0.36455196008979	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-17 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	34.04	27.27	30.655	192.97357968389	0.276	0.336	0.9	1.236	F	F	2.04	84.04	82	445.35085603903	85.940948905135	0.36455196008979	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-17 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	33.67	26.71	30.19	192.31568546457	0.2159	0.2159	0.89	1.1059	F	F	1.67	75.67	82	445.09572548234	85.598889543486	0.34719908529886	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-17 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	35.2	26.69	30.945	192.36518696765	0.2355	0.2355	0.9	1.1355	F	F	3.2	83.2	82	445.11493693937	85.624618066434	0.42062363187757	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-17 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	35.2	26.69	30.945	192.2578949855	0.2355	0.2355	0.94	1.1755	F	F	3.2	87.2	82	445.07329403019	85.568854624507	0.42062363187757	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-16 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	40.86	28.66	34.76	190.75743831137	0.0801	0.3801	0.96	1.3401	F	F	8.86	95.86	82	444.48973569803	84.789723337457	0.69573679181145	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	41.34	29.73	35.535	190.75675143244	0.0039	0.1239	0.9	1.0239	F	F	9.34	94.34	82	444.48946804713	84.789366970604	0.71654364794826	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-16 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	38.89	29.73	34.31	190.88922715997	0.0006	0.1206	0.91	1.0306	F	F	6.89	94.89	82	444.54108021965	84.858103243985	0.60418401591872	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	32.57	28.77	30.67	192.00937835528	0.003	0.293	1.04	1.333	F	F	0.57	79.57	82	444.97679443251	85.439717681511	0.29758281587745	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-16 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	32.06	28.24	30.15	191.7531408011	0	0.21	0.95	1.16	F	F	0.060000000000002	76.06	82	444.87723297941	85.306606694706	0.27573160938039	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-03-16 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	175	-111	28.24	28.24	28.24	191.74227792094	0	0.21	0.94	1.15	F	F	-3.76	73.24	82	444.87301076049	85.300964468764	0.14082125888732	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L