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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 21, 2020

[ Friday, March 20, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 22, 2020 ]

DAY 173 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/21/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.565
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 80

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 177 in
SWE DAY: 80
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-21 09:00:02FORECAST2020173-11239.5628.934.23183.674448612510.01350.04350.940.9835FF7.5679.5681441.110115685181.0206572758610.56476177739621913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-21 05:00:02FORECAST2020173-11241.7629.2635.51183.622119170340.00340.03340.940.9734FF9.7681.7681441.08927429380.9937472889890.65590123973121913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-21 01:00:02FORECAST2020173-11346.0629.6437.85183.519802762330.00510.03511.521.5551FF14.0687.0680440.4513469081780.831544310990.80704214776248914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 21:00:02FORECAST2020173-11345.8227.3636.59183.510536619140.00490.03491.521.5549FF13.8286.8280440.4476411524880.8267829805260.79983899796478914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 17:00:02FORECAST2020173-11345.7127.836.755183.522429641330.00630.03631.521.5563FF13.7186.7180440.4523974450180.8328941204580.79648435797057914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 12:59:36FORECAST2020173-11345.928.6537.275183.03721662150.00490.03491.521.5549FF13.986.980440.258232929680.5836415501330.8022577745352914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 09:00:03FORECAST2020173-11346.4630.4638.46182.984266736480.00330.03331.521.5533FF14.4685.4680440.2370298356680.5564500947240.81869080051502914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 05:00:02FORECAST2020173-11346.630.0538.325183.004243763160.00250.03251.521.5525FF14.683.680440.245029711680.566708732860.82266179713547914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 01:00:01FORECAST2020173-11346.5728.2537.41182.938833411860.0040.0441.521.564FF14.5786.5780440.2188343774280.5331200069330.82181551455236914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 21:00:01FORECAST2020173-11346.529.6138.055182.965504528010.00290.03291.521.5529FF14.586.580440.2295160686280.5468155156190.81983099915709914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 17:00:03FORECAST2020173-11346.1729.6337.9182.971881340380.00360.03361.521.5536FF14.1786.1780440.2320698530780.5500900473870.8102901141906914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 13:00:02FORECAST2020173-11345.8529.6537.75182.987179540740.00460.03461.521.5546FF13.8585.8580440.2381963044380.5579458678520.80074811139802914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 09:00:03FORECAST2020173-11345.8229.2237.52182.496143385440.00380.02381.521.5438FF13.8285.8280440.0414328044480.3058644166120.79983899796478914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 05:00:03FORECAST2020173-11345.7728.3437.055182.622154799770.00410.02411.521.5441FF13.7781.7780440.09195035280.3705402833160.79831829190764914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 01:00:03FORECAST2020173-11344.7830.3437.56182.601389075410.00240.04241.521.5624FF12.7885.7880440.0836265563980.3598815185410.7668109494885914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 21:00:02FORECAST2020173-11343.8728.4136.14182.694284914890.00410.02411.521.5441FF11.8783.8780440.1208597941580.4075657562180.73559345398423914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 17:00:14FORECAST2020173-11343.6629.2536.455182.762297502980.00390.04391.521.5639FF11.6681.6680440.1481140978580.4424805741250.7280991607001914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 13:00:14FORECAST2020173-11343.929.4836.69182.874923379630.00440.04441.521.5644FF11.977.980440.1932356824680.500304247660.73665543158726914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 10:54:00FORECAST2020173-11338.0129.3733.69182.625747625050.00410.04411.521.5641FF6.0175.0180440.0933904663880.3723844587650.49808404329817912111122DRYL
2020-03-18 10:52:31FORECAST2020173-11338.0129.3733.69191.625747625050.00410.04411.521.5641FF6.0175.0180443.6599287128385.0166655308730.49808404329817912111122DRYL
2020-03-18 09:00:01FORECAST2020173-11337.3729.6933.53191.760513841610.0050.0451.521.565FF5.3773.3780443.7127170085985.0865786116250.47046108700744912111122DRYL
2020-03-18 05:00:03FORECAST2020173-11341.9928.1835.085191.854191131170.00570.05571.521.5757FF9.9970.9980443.74940001585.1351822048170.66502283788638913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 00:59:39FORECAST2020173-11341.9929.2235.605191.509278797740.00530.04531.521.5653FF9.9980.9980443.6142929959684.9562533160270.66502283788638913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 20:59:42FORECAST2020173-11340.2428.434.32191.567717805470.01060.06061.531.5906FF8.2479.2480443.6371927075784.9865645406160.59355269751363913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 17:00:03FORECAST2020173-11338.0226.932.46191.734237128430.02130.10131.521.6213FF6.0276.0280443.7024257662485.0729461163240.49851607046799912112124DRYL
2020-03-17 13:00:02FORECAST2020173-11338.0226.932.46191.773697472930.02130.10131.521.6213FF6.0274.0280443.7178801028185.0934185021680.49851607046799912112124DRYL
2020-03-17 09:00:02FORECAST2020173-11342.6227.5635.09191.417104986640.00110.06111.531.5911FF10.6270.6280443.5781671691284.9084485947930.68950185409839913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 05:00:02FORECAST2020173-11344.4628.6336.545191.287731884530.00090.06091.541.6009FF12.4673.4680443.5274474967884.8413594601950.75607205236298914111123DRYL
2020-03-17 01:00:02FORECAST2020173-11344.4628.6336.545191.105979775580.00090.07091.571.6409FF12.4677.4680443.4561649002984.7471248807930.75607205236298914111123DRYL
2020-03-16 21:00:02FORECAST2020173-11347.0731.1139.09191.092515445880.03760.13761.561.6976FF15.0775.0780443.4508829238784.7401446946180.83558841286813914112126DRYL
2020-03-16 17:00:02FORECAST2020173-11345.9430.7238.33191.336103093490.07730.15731.521.6773FF13.9473.9480443.5464129866484.8664422019580.80346052453657914112126DRYL
2020-03-16 13:00:02FORECAST2020173-11345.9430.7238.33191.288392412550.07730.14731.541.6873FF13.9476.9480443.5277064937584.8417019656150.80346052453657914112126DRYL
2020-03-16 09:00:02FORECAST2020173-11340.227.1533.675192.153214047920.20710.39711.551.9471FF8.268.280443.8664357515385.2903622376540.59187144806554913112125DRYL
2020-03-16 05:00:02FORECAST2020173-11340.5625.5733.065191.712997264390.12680.22681.551.7768FF8.5665.5680443.6941066976385.0619270635490.6069381994635913112125DRYL
2020-03-16 01:00:01FORECAST2020173-11340.5625.5733.065191.690785610580.12680.22681.541.7668FF8.5666.5680443.6854065257185.0504041408640.6069381994635913112125DRYL
2020-03-15 21:00:02FORECAST2020173-11341.5727.3234.445190.835830612590.15440.42441.521.9444FF9.5778.5780443.3501524358384.6070945923110.64829672551289913112125DRYL
2020-03-15 17:00:04FORECAST2020173-11342.8529.0735.96190.55001034020.18860.49861.522.0186FF10.8581.8580443.2379110600684.4589885356620.69824094959239913113127.5DRYL
2020-03-15 13:00:03FORECAST2020173-11342.929.136190.621969057480.18860.49861.512.0086FF10.977.980443.2661768620984.4962714500310.70012603919034914113129DRYL
2020-03-15 09:00:03FORECAST2020173-11336.1728.3232.245191.054805608210.24940.29941.541.8394FF4.1777.1780443.4360886174884.7205957104780.41915178384424912112124DRYL
2020-03-15 05:00:01FORECAST2020173-11337.228.9533.0750.114825348712990.15190.27191.521.7919FF5.275.280347.026698791570.0398474617014620.463142107336469121124216DRYL
2020-03-15 01:00:03FORECAST2020173-11337.2528.9833.115190.804253865520.15190.27191.511.7819FF5.2579.2580443.3377562778584.5907297970080.46529356556451912112124DRYL
2020-03-14 21:00:03FORECAST2020173-11349.3931.8640.625189.531042868540.01220.08221.521.6022FF17.3996.3980442.837099678583.9313773229480.89027594702968915111123.5DRYL
2020-03-14 17:00:04FORECAST2020173-11351.2831.541.39189.33006662910.00150.02151.541.5615FF19.28105.2880442.7579230163883.8273870652510.92408101614285915111123.5DRYL
2020-03-14 13:00:00FORECAST2020173-11346.6633.0839.87189.8033085101200.011.541.55FF14.6697.6680442.9442970898984.0722930733510.82434675204189914111123DRYL
2020-03-14 08:59:54FORECAST2020173-11333.2132.0832.645190.3636451186500.021.531.55FF1.2181.2180443.1646816976784.3624441958140.2999230693475912111122DRYL
2020-03-14 05:00:02FORECAST2020173-11331.6531.1731.41190.396839858230.04510.15511.541.6951FF-0.3578.6580443.1777276001184.3796388306140.24397225881837911112123DRYL
2020-03-14 01:00:03FORECAST2020173-11331.9231.9231.92191.018535035380.01230.20231.591.7923FF-0.07999999999999874.9280443.4218576258184.7017936463480.25323731619712912112124DRYL