Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 19, 2020

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DAY 171 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/19/2020 09:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.04°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.719 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 58 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.63 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.67 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 180 in SWE DAY: 78 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.87 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 79.18 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -114 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-19 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-114	43.96	30.11	37.035	183.55285026175	0.0184	0.0384	2.63	2.6684	F	F	11.96	57.96	79	439.86516990876	80.73850566762	0.71872919074298	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-19 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-114	40.28	28.76	34.52	183.63482008809	0.0236	0.0436	2.63	2.6736	F	F	8.28	54.28	79	439.89806986615	80.78060291697	0.57456124183726	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-19 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.72	28.58	36.65	183.5721238969	0.0448	0.0648	2.66	2.7248	F	F	12.72	52.72	78	439.27126096157	80.637958341584	0.74532281456124	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-18 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.99	26.52	35.255	183.5831390574	0.0163	0.0363	2.66	2.6963	F	F	11.99	51.99	78	439.27569909487	80.643611751471	0.71980380973371	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-18 17:00:14	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.24	27.26	35.25	183.58982938827	0.0252	0.0452	2.66	2.7052	F	F	11.24	51.24	78	439.27839464457	80.647045526748	0.69236065894387	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 13:00:14	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	39.09	30.51	34.8	183.68293649063	0.0331	0.0531	2.66	2.7131	F	F	7.09	47.09	78	439.31590295623	80.69483510203	0.52453622381058	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:54:00	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.01	30.02	36.515	183.25267318853	0.0346	0.0546	2.66	2.7146	F	F	11.01	51.01	78	439.14249660847	80.474036414185	0.68371416118813	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:52:31	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.01	30.02	36.515	192.25267318853	0.0346	0.0546	2.66	2.7146	F	F	11.01	51.01	78	442.73052571214	85.116127070319	0.68371416118813	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	42.99	30.1	36.545	192.34691902751	0.0319	0.0519	2.66	2.7119	F	F	10.99	49.99	78	442.76766642282	85.164996481428	0.68295743513287	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.21	30.06	36.635	192.42441716926	0.0367	0.0567	2.66	2.7167	F	F	11.21	47.21	78	442.79820048512	85.205185651947	0.69123875386021	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 00:59:39	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	42.86	29.67	36.265	192.24581866667	0.0266	0.0466	2.66	2.7066	F	F	10.86	51.86	78	442.72782411273	85.112572993064	0.67802017953677	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 20:59:42	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	42.88	28.7	35.79	192.22832533333	0.043	0.073	2.66	2.733	F	F	10.88	51.88	78	442.72092918392	85.103502807042	0.67878183270542	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	42.72	28.46	35.59	192.26178133333	0.0516	0.0716	2.66	2.7316	F	F	10.72	51.72	78	442.73411546796	85.120849696907	0.67266781637636	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	42.48	30.49	36.485	192.30320537489	0.0465	0.0665	2.66	2.7265	F	F	10.48	50.48	78	442.75044070814	85.14232892932	0.66340978497524	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	40.89	28.52	34.705	192.03601824712	0.0453	0.0753	2.66	2.7353	F	F	8.89	46.89	78	442.64511189979	85.003804785786	0.59979690773916	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	39.94	26.92	33.43	192.17245721787	0.0417	0.0817	2.66	2.7417	F	F	7.94	40.94	78	442.69890693331	85.074536753039	0.560354611364	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	39.54	26.99	33.265	192.06729310892	0.0461	0.1161	2.66	2.7761	F	F	7.54	44.54	78	442.65744457088	85.020017153239	0.54354224701997	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	39.31	27.45	33.38	192.25241009246	0.0461	0.1061	2.66	2.7661	F	F	7.31	40.31	78	442.73042201793	85.115990654197	0.53383773990088	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	38.03	26.2	32.115	192.2557387993	0.0327	0.0527	2.66	2.7127	F	F	6.03	42.03	78	442.73173395803	85.117716601996	0.4796228367364	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-03-16 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.25	25.7	34.975	192.20799219556	0.0233	0.0633	2.66	2.7233	F	F	12.25	45.25	78	442.71291457229	85.092960428983	0.72903302453579	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-16 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	41.71	25.46	33.585	191.63057168438	0.0238	0.0738	2.66	2.7338	F	F	9.71	44.71	78	442.48514273882	84.793680864885	0.63305684098914	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.13	22.74	32.935	191.63573010199	0.0192	0.0492	2.68	2.7292	F	F	11.13	44.13	78	442.48717903011	84.796353614203	0.68823829876244	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 01:00:01	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.13	26.26	34.695	191.60026103743	0.0185	0.0485	2.67	2.7185	F	F	11.13	45.13	78	442.47317703705	84.777976222361	0.68823829876244	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	42.99	23.6	33.295	191.0894133869	0.0499	0.0699	2.66	2.7299	F	F	10.99	52.99	78	442.27137159328	84.513376955578	0.68295743513287	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 17:00:04	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.35	30.02	36.685	191.02587733333	0.0534	0.0634	2.67	2.7334	F	F	11.35	54.35	78	442.24625397324	84.480478662619	0.69645889361346	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	43.38	30.03	36.705	191.15888133333	0.0534	0.0634	2.66	2.7234	F	F	11.38	50.38	78	442.29882962185	84.549349485555	0.69757235222111	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	46.77	30.28	38.525	190.82984051172	0.007	0.047	2.66	2.707	F	F	14.77	55.77	78	442.16872945508	84.378988121183	0.8099615279799	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-15 05:00:00	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.96	29.31	37.135	0	0.0182	0.0282	2.67	2.6982	F	F	12.96	53.96	78	345.03906033777	0	0.75343900459653	91	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-03-15 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	45.01	29.36	37.185	190.95740599265	0.0182	0.0282	2.66	2.6882	F	F	13.01	58.01	78	442.21918075455	84.445027637085	0.75511229229499	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	45.19	31.08	38.135	190.81128153521	0.0321	0.0521	2.66	2.7121	F	F	13.19	58.19	78	442.16138814105	84.369381116582	0.76108527238071	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 17:00:04	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	47.2	30.4	38.8	190.7289866291	0.0062	0.0362	2.67	2.7062	F	F	15.2	62.2	78	442.12883084258	84.326783866112	0.82211954860064	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 13:00:00	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	47.78	29.46	38.62	190.85668051012	0.004	0.034	2.67	2.704	F	F	15.78	58.78	78	442.17934585391	84.392882139814	0.83772394263847	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 08:59:54	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	49.15	29.62	39.385	191.08163711865	0.0019	0.0319	2.66	2.6919	F	F	17.15	57.15	78	442.26829762962	84.509350356746	0.87094403027267	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-14 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	47.11	31.65	39.38	190.94804385823	0.0132	0.0232	2.69	2.7132	F	F	15.11	59.11	78	442.21547864846	84.440180611755	0.81961620885615	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	45.45	31.14	38.295	191.32980703538	0.018	0.028	2.74	2.768	F	F	13.45	61.45	78	442.36636940733	84.637872097645	0.76957063721202	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-13 21:00:05	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	45.3	30.2	37.75	189.19930852456	0.0307	0.0407	2.69	2.7307	F	F	13.3	60.3	78	441.52242298543	83.535737126931	0.76469589875703	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-13 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.78	30.93	37.855	188.98390360821	0.0179	0.0179	2.68	2.6979	F	F	12.78	61.78	78	441.43684094818	83.424457398863	0.74736487451457	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-13 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.76	32.14	38.45	189.02506861823	0.0151	0.0151	2.71	2.7251	F	F	12.76	61.76	78	441.45319974401	83.445721373349	0.74668514612434	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-13 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	45.69	31.49	38.59	190.72244443749	0.0058	0.0058	2.73	2.7358	F	F	13.69	58.69	78	442.12624234559	84.323397690115	0.77725167815278	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-13 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.22	30.87	37.545	191.03094493498	0.0145	0.0245	2.73	2.7545	F	F	12.22	60.22	78	442.24825748995	84.483102524154	0.72797589319237	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-13 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.26	30.91	37.585	191.06934330915	0.0145	0.0245	2.75	2.7745	F	F	12.26	61.26	78	442.26343775523	84.502984621537	0.72938494618272	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-12 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	46.84	31.52	39.18	191.3607267423	0.0031	0.0031	2.75	2.7531	F	F	14.84	60.84	78	442.37858392554	84.653887315222	0.81197473474135	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-12 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.43	31.19	37.81	191.73927318432	0.0038	0.0038	2.84	2.8438	F	F	12.43	62.43	78	442.52804713892	84.850006122095	0.73533250721017	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-12 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	44.47	31.21	37.84	192.32175208553	0.0004	0.0004	2.89	2.8904	F	F	12.47	58.47	78	442.7577494215	85.151946118192	0.73672222159762	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-12 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	32.63	31.57	32.1	192.91030797544	0.0016	0.0016	2.97	2.9716	F	F	0.63	41.63	78	442.98950325903	85.457241503587	0.26600026248367	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-03-12 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	32.52	31.83	32.175	192.82561506477	0.0012	0.0012	2.96	2.9612	F	F	0.52	46.52	78	442.95617532941	85.413296954633	0.26217772455455	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-03-12 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	171	-115	32.56	32.56	32.56	192.47486176514	0	0	2.9	2.9	F	F	0.56	47.56	78	442.81807229291	85.231347251682	0.2635644793965	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L