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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 1, 2020

[ Saturday, February 29, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, March 2, 2020 ]

DAY 153 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/02/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 11.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.165
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -36

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 190 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 82.03 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -132

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-02 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020153-13226.4399811.8500819.14503190.124291666670.030000000000031.373.034.4TF-5.56002-35.5600261431.47845599675 82.0345358158090.1647896367476987 1114126WETL
2020-03-02 00:00:02FORECAST2020154-13227.3427.3427.34189.01886182210.00451.34453.034.3745TF-4.66-34.6661431.0105223265581.4691183635150.19323204524046871114126WETL
2020-03-01 12:00:01FORECAST2020153-13232.5923.9328.26189.014888472070.00731.34733.034.3773TF0.59-29.4161431.0088380178681.4670874484220.40865553270246872114128WETL
2020-03-01 08:00:11FORECAST2020153-13231.6613.822.73189.030423532940.00651.34653.034.3765TF-0.34-30.3461431.0154232554181.47502800720.36561707208084872114128WETL
2020-03-01 04:00:02FORECAST2020153-13230.5119.0424.775188.926785982050.01141.35143.034.3814TF-1.49-31.4961430.9714868803881.4220578662150.31469882377431872114128WETL
2020-03-01 00:00:03FORECAST2020153-13234.1719.0326.6181.156758346180.03170.24173.033.2717FF2.17-30.8361427.6442827754977.4706519928850.48408172015002872112124DRYL
2020-02-29 20:00:01FORECAST2020153-13233.5715.2824.425180.038932323410.01330.38333.033.4133FF1.57-26.4361427.1601925383576.9054649956690.45522191922648872112124DRYL
2020-02-29 15:59:47FORECAST2020153-13232.5216.7524.635180.045066208580.01280.38283.033.4128FF0.52-27.4861427.1628526554976.9085640882030.40537020029692872112124DRYL
2020-02-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020153-13233.2518.7726.01180.770817965150.01650.38653.033.4165FF1.25-26.7561427.477301210677.2754214013740.43991643294823872112124DRYL
2020-02-29 08:00:02FORECAST2020153-13233.118.7725.935181.707170777070.01570.61573.033.6457TF1.1-26.961427.8821420599677.7492534597470.43277135902978872113126DRYL
2020-02-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020153-13233.1619.2426.2182.288164187720.01780.87783.033.9078TF1.16-25.8461428.1328563301178.0435524088590.43562688699792872113126DRYL
2020-02-28 23:59:50FORECAST2020153-13232.3219.9826.15188.452228655640.01661.27663.034.3066TF0.32-25.6861430.7701540057181.1795955607090.39602094511537872114128WETL
2020-02-28 20:00:03FORECAST2020153-13232.920.3826.64188.282407508640.03271.40273.034.4327TF0.9-26.161430.6980477128181.092865332640.42327907136236872114128WETL
2020-02-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020153-13232.8320.1726.5188.136735479360.0361.3963.034.426TF0.83-22.1761430.6361703808781.018483274790.41996696866563872114128WETL
2020-02-28 12:00:02FORECAST2020153-13232.4419.9126.175189.306057283820.03081.44083.034.4708TF0.44-23.5661431.1322198809281.6159407136780.40162369345769872114128WETL
2020-02-28 08:00:03FORECAST2020153-13231.7618.2224.99189.036404767080.02081.34083.034.3708TF-0.24-26.2461431.017958602581.4780852842640.37017508160467872114128WETL
2020-02-28 03:59:51FORECAST2020153-13232.2817.8125.045189.763391020450.03411.43413.034.4641TF0.28-29.7261431.3258294793781.8498520367140.39415806222601872114128WETL
2020-02-28 00:00:02FORECAST2020153-13232.2818.1325.205189.003476530220.04441.29443.034.3244TF0.28-24.7261431.0040003850681.4612544712080.39415806222601872114128WETL
2020-02-27 20:00:03FORECAST2020153-13232.319.2625.78189.448310415840.10221.34223.044.3822TF0.3-11.761431.1924660232781.688684152150.39508920400309872114128WETL
2020-02-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020153-13232.4619.0925.775189.666297710560.14951.40953.044.4495TF0.46-11.5461431.2847443900481.8001807275050.40255948751935872114128WETL
2020-02-27 12:00:02FORECAST2020153-13233.2118.9726.09189.331290096610.07561.43563.044.4756TF1.21-9.7961431.1429079096581.6288429705380.43800906645553872114128WETL
2020-02-27 08:00:03FORECAST2020153-13226.5118.2222.365188.535201494550.06091.22093.044.2609TF-5.49-16.4961430.8053730783481.2219778182580.16690018006704871114126WETL
2020-02-27 03:59:55FORECAST2020153-13232.2817.0924.685188.659322791480.03551.17553.054.2255TF0.28-16.7261430.8580443796981.2853868719320.39415806222601872114128WETL
2020-02-27 00:00:03FORECAST2020153-13231.0615.8523.455189.181568491990.05511.30513.054.3551TF-0.94-9.9461431.0794793155981.5522920416340.33868573735978872114128WETL
2020-02-26 20:00:03FORECAST2020153-13230.818.0824.44190.361435968420.11761.50763.064.5676TF-1.2-2.261431.5786692511282.1559352119820.327257287124938721151210WETL
2020-02-26 16:00:03FORECAST2020153-13231.1818.4824.83191.487293050270.10551.66553.054.7155TF-0.82-2.8261432.0536151137282.7327772107080.34401170405048721151210WETL
2020-02-26 11:59:56FORECAST2020153-13231.1220.2625.69191.646791345470.14971.69973.064.7597TF-0.88-4.8861432.120790133482.8145629027330.341344773140298721151210WETL
2020-02-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020153-13231.4720.9426.205190.514411281620.11351.49353.064.5535TF-0.53-0.5361431.6432820638882.2342657660650.35700937087333872114128WETL
2020-02-26 04:00:02FORECAST2020153-13231.4919.4625.475189.470978003590.09011.33013.074.4001TF-0.510.4899999999999961431.2020640454181.7002767918510.35791211520712872114128WETL
2020-02-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020153-13231.519.4625.48192.339797334060.09011.41013.054.4601TF-0.5-2.561432.4123438590283.1701025825880.35836378575573872114128WETL
2020-02-25 20:00:01FORECAST2020153-13237.4520.0628.755186.970763576950.01290.71293.163.8729TF5.4514.4561430.1400728188980.4236178599910.63937490061449873113127.5DRYL
2020-02-25 16:00:02FORECAST2020153-13237.0420.0628.55186.744702921350.01610.74613.183.9261TF5.0415.0461430.043718403980.3083864365310.62065460432458873113127.5DRYL
2020-02-25 12:00:01FORECAST2020153-13237.4520.5529186.281381871710.01610.65613.173.8261TF5.4516.4561429.8460628973280.0723185886250.63937490061449873113127.5DRYL
2020-02-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020153-13234.8719.6927.28188.601254020860.11361.10363.154.2536TF2.876.8761430.8334047632881.255720412430.517846550323588731141210WETL
2020-02-25 04:00:03FORECAST2020153-13235.4621.1128.285187.473221366370.11810.94813.144.0881TF3.4613.4661430.3540386503780.6798579538120.54621615734276873113127.5WETL
2020-02-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020153-13235.521.1128.305182.516637533920.11810.94813.043.9881TF3.520.561428.2313474082378.159345615570.54813264739183873113127.5DRYL
2020-02-24 20:00:03FORECAST2020153-13234.8819.5127.195181.449285494380.02370.47373.013.4837FF2.8824.8861427.7707390153277.6186949497340.51832855448214873112125DRYL
2020-02-24 16:00:02FORECAST2020153-13233.6319.7726.7182.604280945610.02330.723333.7233TF1.6322.6361428.2691138669178.2037735888810.45809981461952872113126DRYL
2020-02-24 12:00:02FORECAST2020153-13233.6719.7726.72182.7463428710.02330.72333.063.7833TF1.6721.6761428.330311974378.27579805410.46001964202372872113126DRYL
2020-02-24 08:00:03FORECAST2020153-13234.519.5327.015179.823441767170.06290.46293.013.4729FF2.519.561427.0667132050676.7966062327280.5873112125DRYL
2020-02-24 04:00:04FORECAST2020153-13234.4820.627.54179.543759426350.08820.36823.073.4382FF2.4827.4861426.9453112926376.6553662589350.49903500056949873112125DRYL
2020-02-23 23:59:22FORECAST2020153-13234.5120.627.555180.324543148410.08820.36823.053.4182FF2.5125.5161427.2840110694177.0497940907110.50048250006814873112125DRYL
2020-02-23 20:00:02FORECAST2020153-13233.3421.3827.36176.744358168140.04670.18673.093.2767FF1.3417.3461425.7254096321975.2445642813120.44421304295179872112124DRYL
2020-02-23 16:00:02FORECAST2020153-13234.6622.9928.825177.234156129960.11530.35533.083.4353FF2.6618.6661425.9394765847875.4910236949390.50771952118392873112125DRYL
2020-02-23 11:59:24FORECAST2020153-13228.5122.9925.75181.04113998320.11150.35153.13.4515FF-3.4911.5161427.5942763273677.4121552365950.23438100292379871112123DRYL
2020-02-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020153-13233.831.7432.77181.029196037170.39511.01513.714.7251TF1.821.861427.5891095781677.4061127411830.46626529068789872114128WETL
2020-02-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020153-13236.8236.0736.445179.937684572490.00030.03033.753.7803TF4.8235.8261427.1162778572376.8543140808510.61048848007354873111122.5DRYL