Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 27, 2020

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DAY 150 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/28/2020 12:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.42°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.42°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.42°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.427 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -28 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.22 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.25 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 184 in SWE DAY: 58 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.93 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.56 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -135 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-28 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	151	-135	32.42	32.42	32.42	184.00362491032	0.0017	0.0317	3.22	3.2517	F	F	0.42	-27.58	58	426.9330120843	78.557221817394	0.42735771752213	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-02-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.92	32.05	38.485	183.614656874	0.0091	0.0391	3.22	3.2591	F	F	12.92	-15.08	58	426.76401685454	78.360128520916	0.89367127464434	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.97	28.46	36.715	183.55398967001	0.0104	0.0404	3.22	3.2604	F	F	12.97	-15.03	58	426.73764367495	78.329397038917	0.89471802511708	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-27 03:59:55	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	40.57	26.98	33.775	183.65609273615	0.0157	0.0457	3.22	3.2657	F	F	8.57	-19.43	58	426.78202747094	78.381119615323	0.77295546424784	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-02-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	45	26	35.5	183.61019875648	0.0202	0.0502	3.22	3.2702	F	F	13	-15	58	426.76207896498	78.357870140487	0.89534249727897	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.64	26.89	35.765	183.5605261204	0.0097	0.0597	3.22	3.2797	F	F	12.64	-4.36	58	426.74048538875	78.332708014833	0.88767089620464	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.47	27.68	36.075	183.597207816	0.0038	0.0538	3.22	3.2738	F	F	12.47	-4.53	58	426.75643183574	78.35128930256	0.88391218751828	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 11:59:56	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	39.78	30.56	35.17	183.6122355637	0.0061	0.0561	3.22	3.2761	F	F	7.78	-9.22	58	426.76296434308	78.358901938826	0.7448229185909	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-02-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.29	29.22	36.755	183.5540828667	0.0029	0.0629	3.22	3.2829	F	F	12.29	-4.71	58	426.73768419242	78.329444246597	0.87983630227348	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.04	29.38	36.71	183.25947427458	0.0026	0.0726	3.22	3.2926	F	F	12.04	-7.96	58	426.60955450054	78.180242678281	0.87401016409624	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	43.98	29.26	36.62	185.58112501946	0.0035	0.0535	3.22	3.2735	F	F	11.98	-10.02	58	427.61668061383	79.357584665402	0.87258314984353	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	43.2	29.76	36.48	185.56414266667	0.0102	0.1602	3.22	3.3802	F	F	11.2	1.2	58	427.60933525444	79.348959692753	0.8530095848499	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	43.41	29.82	36.615	185.557036	0.0097	0.1797	3.22	3.3997	F	F	11.41	1.41	58	427.60626132126	79.345350425814	0.85846702618893	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	43.19	29.83	36.51	185.26205466667	0.0063	0.1663	3.22	3.3863	F	F	11.19	1.19	58	427.47862048542	79.1955675572	0.85274624292554	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	43.77	29.02	36.395	185.16258635852	0.0052	0.1452	3.22	3.3652	F	F	11.77	-0.23	58	427.43555816903	79.145073452176	0.86750052602541	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	43.91	29.32	36.615	185.09712699382	0.0058	0.1358	3.22	3.3558	F	F	11.91	-3.09	58	427.40721323775	79.111847226742	0.87090418305442	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	45.16	29.09	37.125	180.11411970628	0.0027	0.1927	3.07	3.2627	F	F	13.16	4.16	58	425.23559967761	76.590935703705	0.89862788089606	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.3	28.55	36.425	180.15109526422	0.0016	0.1316	3.1	3.2316	F	F	12.3	9.3	58	425.25181519699	76.609580270834	0.88006534444739	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.66	29.21	36.935	180.1421557229	0.0025	0.1225	3.1	3.2225	F	F	12.66	9.66	58	425.2478949277	76.605072508902	0.88810733163769	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.1	28.83	36.465	180.21751587412	0.0036	0.1836	3.1	3.2836	F	F	12.1	9.1	58	425.28093993037	76.643074542863	0.87542603014629	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	39.26	28.3	33.78	180.47138521475	0.0031	0.1131	3.12	3.2331	F	F	7.26	-1.74	58	425.39221367517	76.771122061525	0.72535807230058	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.9	26.99	35.945	179.98381372515	0.0029	0.1329	3.16	3.2929	F	F	12.9	5.9	58	425.17844224084	76.525237548223	0.89325048368831	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-23 23:59:22	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.91	29.81	37.36	180.7444731544	0.0017	0.1317	3.14	3.2717	F	F	12.91	2.91	58	425.51183106616	76.908911727018	0.89346102865681	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.73	26.59	35.66	177.10328893599	0	0.11	3.2	3.31	F	F	12.73	-1.27	58	423.91008493892	75.075870255818	0.88962533308868	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.67	27.09	35.88	176.95129410786	0	0.12	3.18	3.3	F	F	12.67	-0.33	58	423.84290023008	74.99954969414	0.88832509549221	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-23 11:59:23	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.68	27.09	35.885	180.66439127807	0	0.12	3.2	3.32	F	F	12.68	-1.32	58	425.47676237287	76.868500277058	0.88854255695175	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	42.43	25.63	34.03	182.22869203717	0.0012	0.2112	3.72	3.9312	T	F	10.43	0.43	58	426.16049650058	77.658669875211	0.83180875082354	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	42.97	26.08	34.525	181.49672323916	0.0012	0.2112	3.76	3.9712	T	F	10.97	6.97	58	425.84090128362	77.288728204187	0.84687293100171	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	42.97	26.08	34.525	183.56496817576	0.0012	0.2112	3.94	4.1512	T	F	10.97	0.97	58	426.74241653996	78.334958111404	0.84687293100171	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.58	28.19	36.385	183.8018172756	0	0.21	3.95	4.16	T	F	12.58	12.58	58	426.84535341333	78.454951653014	0.88635431851781	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.34	29	36.67	183.38860237469	0	0.12	3.95	4.07	T	F	12.34	13.34	58	426.66572604919	78.245631181345	0.88097844448822	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	44.34	29	36.67	182.91429571736	0	0.14	3.82	3.96	T	F	12.34	14.34	58	426.45930914243	78.005504183897	0.88097844448822	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	45.99	28.33	37.16	184.03234775195	0.0027	0.0927	4.09	4.1827	T	F	13.99	11.99	58	426.94548469992	78.571779911419	0.91447442247653	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	45.54	28.31	36.925	184.26814740476	0.0027	0.1027	4.05	4.1527	T	F	13.54	12.54	58	427.04784402277	78.691315071274	0.90612918894034	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	45.57	28.31	36.94	187.46227732296	0.0027	0.1027	4.18	4.2827	T	F	13.57	8.57	58	428.42837518036	80.314158881085	0.90670352611881	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	47.56	28.93	38.245	187.31389490225	0.0006	0.0706	4.34	4.4106	T	F	15.56	21.56	58	428.36449075314	80.238621200792	0.93928115283608	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	47.22	29.95	38.585	191.03329057276	0.0007	0.0607	4.42	4.4807	T	F	15.22	23.22	58	429.95859581371	82.136405368339	0.93445110336757	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	47.25	29.95	38.6	189.9754969542	0.0007	0.0607	4.24	4.3007	T	F	15.25	23.25	58	429.50676483881	81.595761095447	0.93488887865351	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 07:57:22	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	47.6	29.95	38.775	188.91150488003	0.0017	0.0317	3.82	3.8517	T	F	15.6	20.6	58	429.05105990421	81.052681396878	0.93983066229767	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	49.06	31.26	40.16	187.68464934133	0.0017	0.0217	3.65	3.6717	F	F	17.06	25.06	58	428.52406995048	80.427389802977	0.95735965580933	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	49.09	31.26	40.175	189.61884500587	0.0017	0.0217	3.63	3.6517	F	F	17.09	18.09	58	429.35414897267	81.413637826677	0.95767120579165	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-20 19:59:26	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	48.73	34.14	41.435	186.53486920781	0.0061	0.0461	3.32	3.3661	F	F	16.73	41.73	58	428.02869444311	79.842276535136	0.95380923077853	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	49.45	34.09	41.77	186.1982956281	0.0061	0.0561	3.36	3.4161	F	F	17.45	43.45	58	427.88340989907	79.671161650748	0.96126846588409	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-20 11:57:11	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	41.13	34.09	37.61	186.31291954332	0.0051	0.0551	3.35	3.4051	F	F	9.13	36.13	58	427.93290213073	79.729428364624	0.7917913005629	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-02-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	36.49	33.88	35.185	187.56453438959	0	0.06	3.41	3.47	F	F	4.49	27.49	58	428.4723868294	80.366223734452	0.61109084555807	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-02-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	150	-135	37.64	36.68	37.16	185.95911045125	0	0.06	2.93	2.99	F	F	5.64	24.64	58	427.78008827839	79.549604685006	0.66042715269751	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L