Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 22, 2020

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DAY 145 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/23/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.19°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.81°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.535 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -17 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.16 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 177 in SWE DAY: 53 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 420.58 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 74.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -140 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-23 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	145	-140	34.19006	23.81	29.00003	177.13055125	0.0099999999999909	0.0099999999999909	14.15	14.16	T	T	2.19006	-16.80994	53	420.58495035752	74.498444104281	0.53538710691658	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-140	26.88	26.88	26.88	179	0.0017	0.0017	14.15	14.1517	T	T	-5.12	-24.12	53	421.42491728057	75.435060193222	0.1840791739472	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.2	27.91	32.055	178.917672	0.0271	0.0271	14.15	14.1771	T	T	4.2	-14.8	53	421.38801016667	75.393761787733	0.64082106936277	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	35.69	24.65	30.17	178.92543466667	0.0599	0.0599	14.15	14.2099	T	T	3.69	-15.31	53	421.39149044986	75.397655593576	0.61473384001019	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	32.46	27.24	29.85	179.26713991667	0.0727	0.0727	14.15	14.2227	T	T	0.46	-18.54	53	421.54462125307	75.569098599292	0.44229112000626	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-02-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	35.79	27.65	31.72	181.930136	0.0848	0.0848	14.15	14.2348	T	T	3.79	-24.21	53	422.73346559739	76.907956887884	0.61989432708459	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.57	26.68	31.625	181.91426744188	0.0569	0.0669	14.15	14.2169	T	T	4.57	-12.43	53	422.72640516866	76.899964324597	0.65935227292825	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.94	26.73	31.835	182.0147569746	0.045	0.055	14.15	14.205	T	T	4.94	-12.06	53	422.77111136916	76.950581091739	0.67750681655357	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.34	26.51	31.425	181.83480783655	0.0726	0.0826	14.15	14.2326	T	T	4.34	-12.66	53	422.69104676986	76.859945263628	0.64787472328836	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 07:57:22	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	35.33	27.85	31.59	181.94264054967	0.1023	0.1123	14.15	14.2623	T	T	3.33	-12.67	53	422.73902907075	76.914255212536	0.59599352433275	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-21 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.01	27.95	31.98	181.66963653424	0.0934	0.1034	14.15	14.2534	T	T	4.01	-15.99	53	422.61752504138	76.776772167266	0.63117140735483	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.14	28.15	32.145	183.82917329225	0.086	0.096	14.15	14.246	T	T	4.14	-22.86	53	423.57635646222	77.865691434591	0.63778315766533	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-20 19:59:26	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.12	27.98	32.05	183.88636425548	0.0943	0.1143	14.15	14.2643	T	T	4.12	-8.88	53	423.60167775522	77.894572414928	0.63676857860968	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.26	29.27	32.765	183.77799937151	0.0656	0.0856	14.15	14.2356	T	T	4.26	-8.74	53	423.55369609576	77.839850894888	0.64385010745105	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-20 11:57:11	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.82	28.32	32.57	183.64842442788	0.1172	0.1272	14.15	14.2772	T	T	4.82	-8.18	53	423.49630573436	77.774429299143	0.67166243176159	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.51	29	33.255	183.35611228712	0.0383	0.0483	14.15	14.1983	T	T	5.51	-8.49	53	423.3667676453	77.626884587004	0.70465359162735	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.51	27.59	32.55	184.06745535048	0.0578	0.0678	14.15	14.2178	T	T	5.51	-15.49	53	423.68183155962	77.98603661341	0.70465359162735	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	33.5	27.62	30.56	187.75347127818	0.1191	0.1291	14.15	14.2791	T	T	1.5	-15.5	53	425.30533389322	79.852552791578	0.4982015085123	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.28	27.71	31.995	187.52680095992	0.0638	0.0638	14.15	14.2138	T	T	4.28	-2.72	53	425.20593517867	79.737508773227	0.64485778500478	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.35	26.61	31.98	187.51663936907	0.0626	0.0626	14.15	14.2126	T	T	5.35	-1.65	53	425.20147781122	79.732352173922	0.69713971014823	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-19 11:59:26	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.56	23.8	30.68	187.33046180799	0.0883	0.0883	14.15	14.2383	T	T	5.56	-1.44	53	425.1197909205	79.637886756855	0.70698398304163	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	33.16	23.62	28.39	187.57878698477	0.0561	0.0561	14.15	14.2061	T	T	1.16	-6.84	53	425.2287369752	79.763890672876	0.4798653825986	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-02-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	38.11	24.27	31.19	187.98593173375	0.0656	0.0656	14.16	14.2256	T	T	6.11	-4.89	53	425.40721225742	79.970571162468	0.73203767784519	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	38.14	24.27	31.205	189.56222246859	0.0824	0.0824	14.16	14.2424	T	T	6.14	-2.86	53	426.09645445934	80.771790893298	0.73337262332268	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.34	26.04	31.69	189.58777234153	0.046	0.046	14.17	14.216	T	T	5.34	0.34	53	426.10760357681	80.784791339917	0.69666726587199	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.7	25.7	31.2	189.53449588426	0.0484	0.0484	14.16	14.2084	T	T	4.7	3.7	53	426.08435467852	80.757683368162	0.66577576204694	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.73	25.7	31.215	189.59338255053	0.0484	0.0484	14.16	14.2084	T	T	4.73	1.73	53	426.11005158914	80.787646019566	0.66725132570233	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 08:01:25	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.54	27.57	32.555	189.96099923514	0.0926	0.0926	14.16	14.2526	T	T	5.54	-3.46	53	426.2703849644	80.974748272183	0.70605284927484	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.55	27.1	31.825	192.18452005881	0.3916	0.4616	14.17	14.6316	T	T	4.55	-5.45	53	427.2369728137	82.10833257158	0.65835987321779	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.57	27.1	31.835	188.89527137546	0.3916	0.4716	13.75	14.2216	T	T	4.57	-13.43	53	425.80516300826	80.43258181952	0.65935227292825	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.66	26.11	31.885	188.19082799324	0.4407	0.4607	13.77	14.2307	T	T	5.66	1.66	53	425.49696044385	80.074625294537	0.71161901717375	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-17 15:57:28	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	38.12	26.16	32.14	188.43858596851	0.501	0.521	13.77	14.291	T	T	6.12	-1.88	53	425.60542045219	80.200483610542	0.73248303289234	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	38.14	26.16	32.15	187.59515171795	0.501	0.521	13.76	14.281	T	T	6.14	2.14	53	425.23591415266	79.772195831388	0.73337262332268	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	35.83	24.94	30.385	189.30220908544	0.3833	0.4933	13.76	14.2533	T	T	3.83	-23.17	53	425.98295208142	80.639513861749	0.62195261974483	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	35.85	26.51	31.18	189.03159899227	0.3984	0.4984	13.82	14.3184	T	T	3.85	-9.15	53	425.86474434063	80.501893577142	0.62298047401612	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	35.87	26.51	31.19	178.0537747007	0.3984	0.4984	13.35	13.8484	T	T	3.87	-8.13	53	421.00026480006	74.960686297646	0.62400745786695	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.74	27.39	32.565	174.90258438565	0.3658	0.4058	13.86	14.2658	T	T	5.74	4.74	53	419.57867354463	73.385394356057	0.7153020015792	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.77	27.28	32.525	175.49907701511	0.4549	0.4949	13.88	14.3749	T	T	5.77	4.77	53	419.84864206605	73.683049168641	0.71667731519293	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.8	27.28	32.54	177.85452297298	0.4549	0.4949	13.92	14.4149	T	T	5.8	-0.2	53	420.9107132932	74.860874126981	0.71804943838686	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	39.31	27.5	33.405	175.62744052356	0.1282	0.1282	13.88	14.0082	T	T	7.31	3.31	53	419.90668505763	73.747136355404	0.78269149623718	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	38.84	28.69	33.765	176.2381383465	0.3359	0.3359	13.84	14.1759	T	T	6.84	5.84	53	420.18256936027	74.052193789702	0.76353915863942	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	40.05	29.08	34.565	176.58521815939	0.523	0.523	14.03	14.553	T	T	8.05	11.05	53	420.33917293736	74.22568455408	0.81095898605514	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	36.67	28.14	32.405	174.84752225978	0.6626	0.6626	14.81	15.4726	T	T	4.67	13.67	53	419.55373217219	73.357930525152	0.66429763373496	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	37.07	29.09	33.08	175.0548424809	0.4096	0.4096	14.85	15.2596	T	T	5.07	11.07	53	419.64762340948	73.461348613429	0.68378910010262	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	31.9	29.12	30.51	176.580999911	0.254	0.254	14.95	15.204	T	T	-0.1	13.9	53	420.33727047816	74.223575520894	0.41258507866898	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	26.71	24.99	25.85	176.55489433449	0.019	0.019	15.05	15.069	T	T	-5.29	-2.29	53	420.32549622915	74.210523572831	0.17802119090381	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	145	-140	27.56	25.52	26.54	178.16730053853	0	0	15.34	15.34	T	T	-4.44	3.56	53	421.05126748051	75.017567715328	0.20956764660739	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L