Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 21, 2020

[ Thursday, February 20, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 22, 2020 ]

DAY 144 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/22/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.01°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.93°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.47°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.665 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -24 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.97 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.97 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 179 in SWE DAY: 52 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 420.87 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.45 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -141 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-22 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	144	-141	38.01002	26.92994	32.46998	179.26965458333	0	0	14.97	14.97	T	T	6.01002	-23.98998	52	420.87432662507	75.449995157069	0.66479922327733	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	145	-141	28.79	28.79	28.79	182	0.0036	0.0036	14.97	14.9736	T	T	-3.21	-33.21	52	422.09776613704	76.82179343694	0.24546056058027	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	40.32	27.32	33.82	181.781079145	0.0085	0.0085	14.97	14.9785	T	T	8.32	-21.68	52	421.99998254345	76.711612225921	0.75954175036397	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-21 07:57:21	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	40.77	26.19	33.48	181.75756164884	0.0086	0.0086	14.97	14.9786	T	T	8.77	-21.23	52	421.98947494053	76.699778006664	0.77614351615983	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-21 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	37.37	28.01	32.69	181.5420768477	0.0113	0.0113	14.97	14.9813	T	T	5.37	-24.63	52	421.89316723377	76.59136178747	0.63616888730177	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.58	27.97	34.775	183.73556456662	0.0074	0.0074	14.97	14.9774	T	T	9.58	-32.42	52	422.87105539075	77.696452101104	0.80432492425578	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 19:59:25	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.54	26.48	34.01	183.73236356858	0.0075	0.0175	14.97	14.9875	T	T	9.54	-18.46	52	422.86963230601	77.694837024961	0.8029857975392	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.71	27.37	34.54	183.72273649597	0.0051	0.0151	14.97	14.9851	T	T	9.71	-18.29	52	422.86535227733	77.689979689723	0.80863886200666	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 11:57:11	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.82	28.86	35.34	183.46558874172	0.0021	0.0121	14.97	14.9821	T	T	9.82	-18.18	52	422.75099012616	77.560259294639	0.81224330785118	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	42.04	29.56	35.8	183.39487375403	0.0018	0.0118	14.97	14.9818	T	T	10.04	-18.96	52	422.71952772407	77.524594420321	0.81932563483269	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	38.44	29.9	34.17	184.03640028668	0.0012	0.0112	14.97	14.9812	T	T	6.44	-25.56	52	423.0047479003	77.848271107745	0.68352187708471	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	42.08	30.04	36.06	187.41149667316	0.0021	0.0121	14.97	14.9821	T	T	10.08	-21.92	52	424.4976718957	79.555744024244	0.82059514121424	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	42.29	29.63	35.96	187.41634229358	0.0012	0.0012	14.97	14.9712	T	T	10.29	-11.71	52	424.4998060969	79.558200963012	0.82716791605268	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	42.33	30.09	36.21	187.42549946873	0.0006	0.0006	14.97	14.9706	T	T	10.33	-11.67	52	424.5038392041	79.56284408922	0.82840229397983	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 11:59:26	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	42.12	29.69	35.905	187.34863090684	0.0017	0.0017	14.97	14.9717	T	T	10.12	-11.88	52	424.46998096653	79.523869795133	0.8218590379603	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	42.02	29.11	35.565	187.36913733607	0.0026	0.0026	14.97	14.9726	T	T	10.02	-12.98	52	424.47901406452	79.534266682536	0.81868877952899	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.84	28.84	35.34	187.89859496995	0.0024	0.0124	14.97	14.9824	T	T	9.84	-16.16	52	424.71207773956	79.802802674032	0.81289413756684	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.8	28.59	35.195	189.38960690474	0.0013	0.0113	14.97	14.9813	T	T	9.8	-14.2	52	425.36672947629	80.56003768587	0.81159108484877	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	37.91	27.68	32.795	189.53926381886	0.0025	0.0125	14.98	14.9925	T	T	5.91	-10.09	52	425.43230183653	80.636125294858	0.6603825253033	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.7	28.09	34.895	189.43676522384	0.002	0.002	14.98	14.982	T	T	9.7	-6.3	52	425.38739464133	80.584012007852	0.80830910010526	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.03	26.95	33.99	189.49286328434	0.0022	0.0022	14.98	14.9822	T	T	9.03	-7.97	52	425.41197405148	80.612533038456	0.78543131075321	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 08:01:25	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	35.4	26.39	30.895	189.67217377026	0.002	0.002	14.98	14.982	T	T	3.4	-13.6	52	425.49051560014	80.703711012505	0.54384478830156	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	37.76	26.29	32.025	190.40480258701	0.0483	0.0683	14.99	15.0583	T	T	5.76	-15.24	52	425.81105014757	81.076468942715	0.65371750780959	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	37.78	22.13	29.955	187.07490288126	0.0592	0.0792	14.57	14.6492	T	T	5.78	-23.22	52	424.34935849086	79.385115027405	0.65460898596087	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	40.16	23.01	31.585	186.74050588966	0.0224	0.0224	14.59	14.6124	T	T	8.16	-8.84	52	424.20188744758	79.215675061309	0.75348148227747	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-17 15:57:28	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	40.36	25.95	33.155	186.78738519631	0.0222	0.0222	14.59	14.6122	T	T	8.36	-12.64	52	424.22256904783	79.239424413704	0.76104405971726	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	40.38	25.95	33.165	186.72564422934	0.0222	0.0222	14.58	14.6022	T	T	8.38	-8.62	52	424.19533046026	79.208146359268	0.76179328853535	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	34.33	24.45	29.39	187.59212122578	0.107	0.107	14.58	14.687	T	T	2.33	-31.67	52	424.57720827277	79.647339124007	0.49233891006487	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	36.06	23.46	29.76	187.08120913723	0.1022	0.1022	14.64	14.7422	T	T	4.06	-17.94	52	424.35213838371	79.388311148794	0.57530551804364	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	36.06	23.46	29.76	176.04308796911	0.1022	0.1022	14.17	14.2722	T	T	4.06	-16.94	52	419.41755508438	73.83556154551	0.57530551804364	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	36.7	22.86	29.78	173.62734491624	0.0382	0.0382	14.68	14.7182	T	T	4.7	-6.3	52	418.31902221419	72.631621155008	0.60536330270256	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	36.63	23.57	30.1	173.71562901682	0.0384	0.0384	14.7	14.7384	T	T	4.63	-6.37	52	418.35928722804	72.675546735845	0.60210268447529	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	36.63	23.57	30.1	175.9934057186	0.0384	0.0384	14.74	14.7784	T	T	4.63	-11.37	52	419.39503044295	73.810759749108	0.60210268447529	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.66	23.67	31.665	175.62442227076	0.0012	0.0012	14.7	14.7012	T	T	7.66	-9.34	52	419.2276539581	73.626614526315	0.73402837970257	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.46	22.79	31.125	175.46181670123	0.0012	0.0012	14.66	14.6612	T	T	7.46	-5.54	52	419.15384379547	73.545494909656	0.72603526436544	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.66	23.37	31.515	175.45154673314	0.0012	0.0012	14.85	14.8512	T	T	7.66	-2.34	52	419.14918101266	73.5403721206	0.73402837970257	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	38.51	22.39	30.45	173.93073226112	0.003	0.003	15.63	15.633	T	T	6.51	3.51	52	418.45735470151	72.782594123285	0.68652750552079	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.01	22.58	30.795	174.20852311258	0.0021	0.0021	15.67	15.6721	T	T	7.01	1.01	52	418.58392275783	72.920886982312	0.70762837733739	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.04	22.59	30.815	175.58831568757	0.0021	0.0021	15.77	15.7721	T	T	7.04	9.04	52	419.21126703695	73.608600296271	0.70887318565748	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.57	23.35	31.46	176.40275506118	0.0033	0.0033	15.87	15.8733	T	T	7.57	-2.43	52	419.58053405331	74.015162177046	0.73044612349138	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.57	24.66	33.115	178.16730053853	0.0014	0.0014	16.16	16.1614	T	T	9.57	2.57	52	420.3779638302	74.897607021511	0.80399066056596	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	41.6	24.67	33.135	172.83515402233	0.0014	0.0014	15.88	15.8814	T	T	9.6	13.6	52	417.95731189091	72.237716375423	0.80499241487554	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	40.16	24.14	32.15	172.86827121032	0.0005	0.0005	16.12	16.1205	T	T	8.16	13.16	52	417.97244761171	72.254174432181	0.75348148227747	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	39.84	22.94	31.39	172.87751790813	0	0	16.11	16.11	T	T	7.84	15.84	52	417.97667345078	72.258769849666	0.74111990185807	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 11:59:30	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	34.62	23.7	29.16	174.88779866798	0	0	15.96	15.96	T	T	2.62	4.62	52	418.89304078225	73.259281779746	0.50632186253999	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	27.63	25.35	26.49	176.97567523978	0	0	16.31	16.31	T	T	-4.37	-12.37	52	419.83983889861	74.301438981644	0.20352629695698	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-141	25.25	24.61	24.93	177.97429935549	0.0034	0.0234	16.7	16.7234	T	T	-6.75	-11.75	52	420.29091710978	74.800981498088	0.13200551677095	89	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L