Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 20, 2020

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DAY 143 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.28°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.738 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -42 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.26 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 182 in SWE DAY: 51 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.30 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 76.55 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-21 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	143	-142	40.40006	22.15004	31.27505	181.70731375	0	0	15.26	15.26	T	T	8.40006	-41.59994	51	421.29720494411	76.552783400778	0.7376648499253	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	144	-142	28.36	28.36	28.36	184.00039000008	0.0001	0.0001	15.26	15.2601	T	T	-3.64	-53.64	51	422.32282296749	77.707564131954	0.21529203041321	88	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-20 11:57:11	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.52	27.77	34.645	183.76052599874	0.0072	0.0072	15.26	15.2672	T	T	9.52	-40.48	51	422.21581917819	77.586601017175	0.77895673007128	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.47	26.85	34.16	183.73680975037	0.0067	0.0067	15.26	15.2667	T	T	9.47	-40.53	51	422.20523577247	77.574643080737	0.77719615638884	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	37.78	26.87	32.325	184.27435075008	0.0071	0.0071	15.26	15.2671	T	T	5.78	-44.22	51	422.44495765618	77.845770299736	0.62786487032741	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	42.04	27.15	34.595	187.74495274364	0.0095	0.0095	15.26	15.2695	T	T	10.04	-43.96	51	423.98485427052	79.601016429037	0.796789657334	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.88	26.11	33.995	187.74683196174	0.0012	0.0012	15.26	15.2612	T	T	9.88	-34.12	51	423.98568440274	79.601969043743	0.79139600888937	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.85	25.01	33.43	187.75544908481	0.0028	0.0028	15.26	15.2628	T	T	9.85	-34.15	51	423.98949090939	79.606337272934	0.7903754037435	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 11:59:26	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.88	25.16	33.52	187.67398723351	0.0002	0.0002	15.26	15.2602	T	T	9.88	-34.12	51	423.95350282335	79.565044276473	0.79139600888937	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.47	26.28	33.875	187.67171704231	0.0004	0.0004	15.26	15.2604	T	T	9.47	-34.53	51	423.95249979527	79.56389358096	0.77719615638884	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.63	26.47	34.05	188.19740467441	0.0005	0.0105	15.26	15.2705	T	T	9.63	-38.37	51	424.18460760591	79.830442254266	0.78280188853959	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.64	23.62	32.63	189.68571297862	0	0.01	15.26	15.27	T	T	9.64	-36.36	51	424.84006474712	80.58609058344	0.78314952558798	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.88	23.2	32.04	189.7313116784	0.001	0.021	15.26	15.281	T	T	8.88	-28.12	51	424.86010750882	80.609265477473	0.75582863759576	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.6	22.87	31.735	189.72070389051	0.001	0.011	15.26	15.271	T	T	8.6	-28.4	51	424.855445097	80.603874095518	0.74531482641815	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.41	22.58	31.495	189.73586546735	0.0028	0.0128	15.26	15.2728	T	T	8.41	-28.59	51	424.86210898461	80.611579952479	0.73804792509194	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 08:01:25	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.2	22.16	31.18	189.75294855298	0.0013	0.0113	15.26	15.2713	T	T	8.2	-28.8	51	424.86961711533	80.620262598209	0.72989434800521	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.33	22.09	31.21	190.29963154734	0.0182	0.0382	15.26	15.2982	T	T	8.33	-32.67	51	425.1097160094	80.898222323784	0.73495672232409	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.02	22.46	31.24	186.87475331505	0.023	0.033	14.85	14.883	T	T	8.02	-40.98	51	423.60002334453	79.16014986676	0.72280606730948	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.95	22.78	30.865	186.83759215988	0.0008	0.0108	14.87	14.8808	T	T	6.95	-29.05	51	423.58357050932	79.141334392447	0.67889556570256	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 15:57:28	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	35.23	22.92	29.075	186.88601131152	0.0012	0.0112	14.87	14.8812	T	T	3.23	-32.77	51	423.60500743531	79.165850211172	0.50979289976835	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.64	23.31	30.975	186.85046341266	0.001	0.001	14.87	14.871	T	T	6.64	-29.36	51	423.58926934006	79.14785127282	0.66565249984754	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	32.55	20.85	26.7	187.10577241254	0	0	14.87	14.87	T	T	0.55	-46.45	51	423.70227056603	79.277140607204	0.38495885351589	88	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-02-17 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.59	21.05	29.82	186.80153093488	0.0004	0.0004	14.93	14.9304	T	T	6.59	-34.41	51	423.56760317554	79.123076727608	0.66349653512328	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.59	23.86	31.225	175.75550212999	0.0006	0.0006	14.46	14.4606	T	T	6.59	-33.41	51	418.60711161562	73.572503097188	0.66349653512328	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.66	23	31.83	173.67232642394	0.0012	0.0012	14.97	14.9712	T	T	8.66	-23.34	51	417.65591088977	72.535273688937	0.74758753826699	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.97	22.89	31.93	173.75683657931	0.0011	0.0011	14.99	14.9911	T	T	8.97	-23.03	51	417.69459717568	72.577291861514	0.75915776517623	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.97	22.89	31.93	176.03342934733	0.0011	0.0011	15.03	15.0311	T	T	8.97	-28.03	51	418.73363610016	73.711117945786	0.75915776517623	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.46	23.01	31.735	175.7968410969	0.0013	0.0013	14.99	14.9913	T	T	8.46	-28.54	51	418.62593655554	73.593117247698	0.73997050900831	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	39.76	22.68	31.22	175.64234068216	0.0013	0.0013	14.95	14.9513	T	T	7.76	-25.24	51	418.55557003987	73.516080027358	0.71240964960672	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.19	23.17	31.68	175.63239863042	0.0014	0.0014	15.14	15.1414	T	T	8.19	-21.81	51	418.55104103162	73.511123285644	0.729502942956	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.24	23.61	30.925	174.05753054532	0.0035	0.0035	15.92	15.9235	T	T	6.24	-14.76	51	417.83217878941	72.726837222457	0.64825752135853	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.56	22.82	30.69	174.34801923794	0.0022	0.0022	15.96	15.9622	T	T	6.56	-18.44	51	417.96499125768	72.871368336579	0.66220036748408	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.59	22.83	30.71	175.72840673041	0.0022	0.0022	16.06	16.0622	T	T	6.59	-10.41	51	418.59477183936	73.558992321011	0.66349653512328	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.09	24	31.045	176.56524799919	0.0008	0.0008	16.16	16.1608	T	T	6.09	-21.91	51	418.97549410598	73.976512022407	0.64165114799325	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	39.49	24.59	32.04	178.42340654996	0.0008	0.0008	16.45	16.4508	T	T	7.49	-18.51	51	419.81797845125	74.905353846192	0.70142234807499	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	39.52	24.61	32.065	173.09221257463	0.0008	0.0008	16.17	16.1708	T	T	7.52	-8.48	51	417.39012740875	72.246980659987	0.70265253509012	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.65	24.81	32.73	173.06780054365	0.0005	0.0005	16.41	16.4105	T	T	8.65	-7.35	51	417.37893426572	72.23485414662	0.74720949561903	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.49	23.92	32.205	173.03780057479	0.0005	0.0005	16.4	16.4005	T	T	8.49	-3.51	51	417.36517805068	72.219952446397	0.7411205616708	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 11:59:30	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.61	24.77	32.69	174.90671333465	0.0005	0.0005	16.25	16.2505	T	T	8.61	-10.39	51	418.22015288012	73.149512390578	0.7456943534002	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	40.62	26.3	33.46	176.97567523978	0.0016	0.0016	16.6	16.6016	T	T	8.62	-20.38	51	419.1619230621	74.181464368721	0.74607358410825	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	38.6	25.16	31.88	177.94803819845	0.0212	0.0212	16.99	17.0112	T	T	6.6	-17.4	51	419.60282601121	74.66749971122	0.66392816085567	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	39.64	25.58	32.61	176.4358248762	0.0075	0.0075	16.98	16.9875	T	T	7.64	-14.36	51	418.91666573748	73.911907473781	0.70754998847791	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	41.7	26.33	34.015	179.82290749215	0	0	17.04	17.04	T	T	9.7	2.7	51	420.44988858078	75.606521419347	0.7852285941457	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:02:17	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	37.12	26.09	31.605	153.48811226234	0	0	4.49	4.49	T	F	5.12	-33.88	51	408.17419716239	62.649886996652	0.59798238058856	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	33.57	26.09	29.83	154.38709538398	0	0	4.59	4.59	T	F	1.57	-37.43	51	408.60692607207	63.083636470044	0.43178919782151	88	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	26.65	24.43	25.54	154.62196292773	0	0.02	4.5	4.52	T	F	-5.35	-44.35	51	408.71981774547	63.197060507269	0.16094537960446	88	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	26.66	24.72	25.69	154.25020346129	0	0.02	4.45	4.47	T	F	-5.34	-44.34	51	408.54109638825	63.017547240186	0.16123469536978	88	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	24.2	23.48	23.84	17.753797352978	0	0.02	4.5	4.52	T	F	-7.8	-45.8	51	330.07198304474	5.8600310988718	0.10014148357004	88	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	24.01	23.49	23.75	18.298799463352	0	0.02	4.49	4.51	T	F	-7.99	-47.99	51	330.44248230304	6.0467007178356	0.096242745505921	88	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:02:17	FORECAST	2020	143	-142	23.5	23.5	23.5	155.91457854223	0	0.02	4.4	4.42	T	F	-8.5	-55.5	51	409.33992384286	63.822061706469	0.086329514562089	88	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L