Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 8, 2020

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DAY 131 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.70°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.50°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.10°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.308 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -2 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.29 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 8.79 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.80 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 27.59 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 173 in SWE DAY: 39 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 390.83 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 67.61 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -154 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-09 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	132	-154	21.6	21.6	21.6	137.00964363837	0.0018	0.1618	14.31	14.4718	T	T	-10.4	-18.4	39	390.83449402876	53.548094748463	0.080364530754002	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-08 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.91	21.09	25.5	137.34822689571	0.0988	0.2588	14.31	14.5688	T	T	-2.09	-10.09	39	391.0124941179	53.704872761165	0.31656950828073	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-08 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	27.05	21.38	24.215	138.70615096309	0.4241	0.5841	14.31	14.8941	T	T	-4.95	-12.95	39	391.72484622484	54.334645656456	0.21314113113438	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 04:01:15	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.02	21.73	24.875	2.9949994327417	0.8109	0.9709	14.31	15.2809	T	T	-3.98	-11.98	39	306.86824251904	0.91907021227097	0.24584640089777	89	1	1	1	3	4	2	18	WET	L
2020-02-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	27.23	21.94	24.585	141.72471561278	1.172	1.332	14.31	15.642	T	T	-4.77	-12.77	39	393.29957835187	55.740270892546	0.21901140885724	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-07 20:01:14	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.95	22.71	26.33	140.51067528667	1.4107	2.5407	14.31	16.8507	T	T	-2.05	-1.05	39	392.66768594811	55.174001715823	0.31815556990099	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.63	22.73	25.68	140.77285761672	1.4948	2.6248	14.31	16.9348	T	T	-3.37	-2.37	39	392.80431349717	55.296185695172	0.26771480956002	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.96	21.84	25.9	142.52240713018	1.4028	2.5328	14.31	16.8428	T	T	-2.04	-1.04	39	393.71370704243	56.113025247834	0.31855260794298	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.16	21.52	25.34	142.33562025974	1.3539	2.7339	14.31	17.0439	T	T	-2.84	-0.84	39	393.61681018907	56.025692822922	0.28747906260748	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 04:01:16	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.71	21.81	25.76	7.0969017830393	1.3425	3.1325	14.31	17.4425	T	T	-2.29	-3.29	39	309.88471216595	2.1992213663071	0.30869012492356	89	2	1	1	5	4	2	40	WET	L
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.55	22.32	26.435	141.85475308172	1.3358	3.6258	14.31	17.9358	T	T	-1.45	-0.45	39	393.36714572395	55.80099932713	0.3423331246908	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.59	22.96	25.775	141.567763279	1.1936	5.6936	14.31	20.0036	T	T	-3.41	-1.41	39	393.21799630652	55.666992218163	0.26625139392616	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.8	22.65	26.725	141.99123869628	1.1368	5.7768	14.31	20.0868	T	T	-1.2	2.8	39	393.43803954721	55.864754585543	0.35260828951609	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.6	22.25	26.425	141.87013006292	1.1185	5.6985	14.31	20.0085	T	T	-1.4	2.6	39	393.3751341165	55.808181440627	0.34437914172271	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.09	23.31	26.7	141.56900326444	1.2143	6.1743	14.31	20.4843	T	T	-1.91	4.09	39	393.21864096438	55.667571066327	0.32373291754381	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	27.13	23.79	25.46	7.5982980812251	1.2352	7.0952	14.31	21.4052	T	T	-4.87	1.13	39	310.25127958588	2.357381702375	0.21573875791048	89	1	1	1	5	4	2	30	WET	L
2020-02-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.39	22.4	25.895	141.91512279927	1.1724	7.6924	14.31	22.0024	T	T	-2.61	4.39	39	393.39850619973	55.829197316385	0.29626532436101	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-05 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	27.24	21.39	24.315	142.73357498729	1.2921	7.8721	15.93	23.8021	T	T	-4.76	7.24	39	393.82319633473	56.211792725778	0.2193402340284	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.44	22.12	25.78	143.09275312472	1.2754	7.9954	15.93	23.9254	T	T	-2.56	6.44	39	394.00929324519	56.379874527178	0.29819154027443	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.2	22.16	25.18	143.59366941557	1.3506	8.0006	15.93	23.9306	T	T	-3.8	5.2	39	394.26854401277	56.614466969927	0.25219820596726	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-05 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	26.97	22.82	24.895	145.03308998726	1.3301	7.4201	16.45	23.8701	T	T	-5.03	4.97	39	395.01168739045	57.28976560332	0.21056180465969	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.95	22.62	25.785	11.633314939995	1.5957	7.1457	17.2	24.3457	T	T	-3.05	6.95	39	313.18431892375	3.6433718163078	0.2795659398067	89	2	1	1	5	3	2	30	WET	L
2020-02-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.99	22.66	25.825	147.36341180357	1.4832	6.9832	17.6	24.5832	T	T	-3.01	6.99	39	396.20903977521	58.38671588869	0.28106502690757	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 20:01:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.85	22.24	26.545	145.54509144693	1.6658	6.4758	18.21	24.6858	T	T	-1.15	6.85	39	395.27536884158	57.530389704769	0.35467657674183	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.63	22.73	26.18	143.76771969019	1.2061	6.0261	18.3	24.3261	T	T	-2.37	5.63	39	394.3585470782	56.696029053769	0.30556257821432	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.66	22.78	26.22	145.7590491251	1.2061	5.8861	18.22	24.1061	T	T	-2.34	5.66	39	395.38545578824	57.631008073589	0.3067337644734	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.8	24.1	27.45	152.57093587499	1.9272	6.5172	18.47	24.9872	T	T	-1.2	4.8	39	398.85926248779	60.85433096017	0.35260828951609	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	32.02	25.72	28.87	17.619718535294	1.6257	6.1357	18.34	24.4757	T	T	0.020000000000003	12.02	39	317.48080546589	5.5939224326673	0.40417752857309	89	2	1	1	5	2	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	32.06	25.76	28.91	146.0140774088	1.6257	6.2257	18.17	24.3957	T	T	0.060000000000002	15.06	39	395.51659652806	57.750990941913	0.40590245978069	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	34.05	25.73	29.89	142.05286414994	0.8921	4.4421	18.04	22.4821	T	T	2.05	21.05	39	393.47004119767	55.893546309326	0.49334231468649	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	31.13	25.15	28.14	142.17390703974	1.0768	4.4368	17.99	22.4268	T	T	-0.87	19.13	39	393.53288331097	55.950107568936	0.36633670471129	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	31.34	25.21	28.275	142.12166536216	1.0768	4.8168	17.96	22.7768	T	T	-0.66	20.34	39	393.50576324989	55.925694402683	0.37516417109466	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	37.35	27.83	32.59	137.25189923061	0.7359	5.8259	17.73	23.5559	T	T	5.35	28.35	39	390.96186828922	53.660258949443	0.63700792020509	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	36.72	27.94	32.33	5.6645176559336	0.8942	5.2842	17.55	22.8342	T	T	4.72	25.72	39	308.83493037895	1.7494009159006	0.61040604903754	89	3	1	1	5	4	2	50	WET	H
2020-02-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	36.75	27.98	32.365	138.74311463121	0.8942	5.6642	17.69	23.3542	T	T	4.75	29.75	39	391.74420263065	54.351810811697	0.61168573006197	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	32.87	24.94	28.905	142.4798461723	1.1569	6.3869	17.97	24.3569	T	T	0.87	31.87	39	393.69163232415	56.093123212865	0.44118051884438	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.29	23.83	27.06	143.92583488956	0.9265	5.9965	18.16	24.1565	T	T	-1.71	28.29	39	394.44027547894	56.770145962373	0.3317693987024	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.33	23.87	27.1	144.88687924358	0.9265	5.9965	17.96	23.9565	T	T	-1.67	25.33	39	394.93632569186	57.22109172942	0.33338617306618	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-02 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	28.48	24.12	26.3	142.48663064254	0.6404	5.6904	18.25	23.9404	T	T	-3.52	22.48	39	393.69515132564	56.096295612696	0.26224796139474	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	32.36	25.37	28.865	144.34221911303	0.8303	5.5703	18.2	23.7703	T	T	0.36	26.36	39	394.65534397424	56.965428134058	0.41889548456423	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-02 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	32.39	25.4	28.895	152.30225476702	0.8303	5.5703	17.21	22.7803	T	T	0.39	12.39	39	398.72338077267	60.726469920007	0.42019991527239	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	31.92	24.98	28.45	154.52157506142	0.8206	6.8706	18.15	25.0206	T	T	-0.079999999999998	22.92	39	399.8429953845	61.784369424089	0.39987341059003	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	32.82	27.32	30.07	153.98276465833	0.8433	8.7233	18.33	27.0533	T	T	0.82	20.82	39	399.57175327558	61.527163248752	0.43898626688124	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	29.57	27.37	28.47	154.54257314418	0.709	8.589	18.27	26.859	T	T	-2.43	16.57	39	399.85355849894	61.794397811281	0.30322616834293	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 10:44:44	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.74	28.02	29.38	148.99848411505	0.5902	5.8302	16.9	22.7302	T	T	-1.26	22.74	39	397.04494222087	59.159094516455	0.35013208609198	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	30.76	29.33	30.045	86.640418303577	0.4671	5.7071	17.44	23.1471	T	T	-1.24	28.76	39	362.57370757066	31.413537689801	0.35095678608173	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	131	-154	31.97	30.83	31.4	85.528497243911	0.1779	3.9579	18.01	21.9679	T	T	-0.030000000000001	31.97	39	361.90814091842	30.95345943309	0.40202398472978	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L