Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 5, 2020
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Thursday, February 6, 2020 ]
DAY 128
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.40°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.386
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 22
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 3.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 19.92 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 151 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 387.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.50 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -157
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2020-02-06 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 129 | -157 | 31.29 | 31.29 | 31.29 | 135 | 0.0895 | 0.1695 | 15.26 | 15.4295 | T | T | -0.71 | 20.29 | 36 | 387.38862450615 | 52.29746430833 | 0.37805668552769 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
2020-02-05 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.69 | 29.03 | 31.86 | 135.18215618195 | 1.7147 | 1.7947 | 15.26 | 17.0547 | T | T | 2.69 | 23.69 | 36 | 387.48600068655 | 52.38119306313 | 0.51814567834685 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-05 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.8 | 30.77 | 33.785 | 135.68556551839 | 2.2337 | 2.3137 | 15.26 | 17.5737 | T | T | 4.8 | 25.8 | 36 | 387.75487665378 | 52.61273972128 | 0.60506699036988 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-05 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.96 | 29.82 | 32.39 | 2.1501410506171 | 2.9804 | 3.0604 | 15.26 | 18.3204 | T | T | 2.96 | 23.96 | 36 | 302.89912166429 | 0.65127583568625 | 0.52940638879668 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 50 | WET | H |
2020-02-05 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.07 | 28.7 | 31.885 | 138.34646306361 | 3.3782 | 3.4582 | 15.26 | 18.7182 | T | T | 3.07 | 24.07 | 36 | 389.17039135299 | 53.840347172767 | 0.53398786429143 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-04 20:01:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.04 | 28.83 | 31.935 | 135.23501702757 | 3.2825 | 4.0725 | 15.26 | 19.3325 | T | T | 3.04 | 25.04 | 36 | 387.51425035132 | 52.405496244687 | 0.53273879184118 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-04 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.09 | 28.77 | 31.93 | 135.46361073547 | 3.3655 | 4.1555 | 15.26 | 19.4155 | T | T | 3.09 | 25.09 | 36 | 387.63637075548 | 52.51062243493 | 0.53482039406857 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-04 12:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.11 | 29 | 32.055 | 137.37112305324 | 3.2907 | 4.0807 | 15.26 | 19.3407 | T | T | 3.11 | 25.11 | 36 | 388.65265116222 | 53.389651167773 | 0.53565277146429 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-04 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.93 | 28.83 | 31.88 | 137.88651552329 | 3.5531 | 4.3331 | 15.26 | 19.5931 | T | T | 2.93 | 23.93 | 36 | 388.92639699346 | 53.627705676458 | 0.52815619392858 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-04 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.09 | 28.83 | 31.96 | 5.2439347447713 | 3.5102 | 4.2002 | 15.26 | 19.4602 | T | T | 3.09 | 24.09 | 36 | 305.20822356506 | 1.6004920079428 | 0.53482039406857 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 50 | WET | L |
2020-02-04 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.06 | 28.8 | 31.93 | 137.31826903289 | 3.3122 | 4.0322 | 15.26 | 19.2922 | T | T | 3.06 | 24.06 | 36 | 388.62455798489 | 53.365251606156 | 0.53357154339262 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-03 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.2 | 29.09 | 32.145 | 136.15001590935 | 3.3411 | 3.9011 | 15.26 | 19.1611 | T | T | 3.2 | 32.2 | 36 | 388.00263952275 | 52.826565543891 | 0.53939648692787 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-03 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.34 | 28.8 | 32.07 | 135.8912035285 | 3.3683 | 3.8483 | 15.26 | 19.1083 | T | T | 3.34 | 32.34 | 36 | 387.8646111085 | 52.70738880965 | 0.54521298906244 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-03 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.6 | 28.32 | 31.96 | 136.59520154752 | 3.344 | 3.824 | 15.26 | 19.084 | T | T | 3.6 | 32.6 | 36 | 388.23985133884 | 53.031700742408 | 0.55598845698416 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-03 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.18 | 29.32 | 32.25 | 135.97557313764 | 3.1145 | 3.5945 | 15.26 | 18.8545 | T | T | 3.18 | 34.18 | 36 | 387.90961661933 | 52.746232445415 | 0.53856484005495 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-03 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.12 | 29.08 | 32.1 | 3.3006898585664 | 2.9485 | 3.4085 | 15.26 | 18.6685 | T | T | 3.12 | 31.12 | 36 | 303.75997196839 | 1.0026174589145 | 0.53606890188679 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 50 | WET | H |
2020-02-03 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.03 | 29.14 | 32.085 | 136.40748809791 | 3.0212 | 3.5512 | 15.26 | 18.8112 | T | T | 3.03 | 35.03 | 36 | 388.13986318839 | 52.945183768196 | 0.53232236209558 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 20:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.41 | 29.08 | 32.245 | 136.73856331736 | 3.1557 | 3.7957 | 15.29 | 19.0857 | T | T | 3.41 | 40.41 | 36 | 388.3161828553 | 53.097796956515 | 0.54811768808401 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.52 | 29.15 | 32.335 | 137.70261304181 | 3.3746 | 3.9946 | 15.29 | 19.2846 | T | T | 3.52 | 41.52 | 36 | 388.82876005057 | 53.542736284772 | 0.55267695665318 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.48 | 28.74 | 32.11 | 138.472499147 | 3.1199 | 3.7899 | 15.29 | 19.0799 | T | T | 3.48 | 39.48 | 36 | 389.23720161277 | 53.898648068304 | 0.55101981368373 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 35.29 | 29.46 | 32.375 | 137.51279231099 | 3.3183 | 4.0683 | 15.3 | 19.3683 | T | T | 3.29 | 40.29 | 36 | 388.72793316483 | 53.455063538773 | 0.54313671374294 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 37.11 | 29.77 | 33.44 | 138.85016548995 | 3.068 | 3.958 | 15.36 | 19.318 | T | T | 5.11 | 37.11 | 36 | 389.4372701239 | 54.073429404659 | 0.61751153742631 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 37.14 | 30.27 | 33.705 | 146.56877363284 | 3.158 | 4.088 | 14.24 | 18.328 | T | T | 5.14 | 23.14 | 36 | 393.48443462204 | 57.672531026162 | 0.61870966155909 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.48 | 30.75 | 32.615 | 147.45932625424 | 3.6524 | 4.7324 | 14.54 | 19.2724 | T | T | 2.48 | 34.48 | 36 | 393.94630081031 | 58.09105609784 | 0.50937686484539 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.12 | 29.82 | 31.97 | 146.61396145339 | 3.7676 | 4.8976 | 14.55 | 19.4476 | T | T | 2.12 | 33.12 | 36 | 393.5078954941 | 57.693751421578 | 0.49433641370097 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 12:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.16 | 29.88 | 32.02 | 147.2779489866 | 3.7676 | 4.8976 | 14.49 | 19.3876 | T | T | 2.16 | 32.16 | 36 | 393.85231804883 | 58.005761605851 | 0.49600756841737 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.28 | 30.89 | 33.585 | 144.11499152098 | 2.7563 | 3.4563 | 14.56 | 18.0163 | T | T | 4.28 | 36.28 | 36 | 392.20641426552 | 56.522824066349 | 0.58395579357448 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.31 | 30.93 | 33.62 | 82.226174840495 | 2.7563 | 3.4063 | 15.15 | 18.5563 | T | T | 4.31 | 41.31 | 36 | 357.19184900678 | 29.370519428031 | 0.58518098480503 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.78 | 30.87 | 33.825 | 82.390987545089 | 2.663 | 3.363 | 15.77 | 19.133 | T | T | 4.78 | 41.78 | 36 | 357.29259419203 | 29.437689678028 | 0.6042602733436 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 00:00:15 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.81 | 30.93 | 33.87 | 99.769222597115 | 2.663 | 3.373 | 13.75 | 17.123 | T | T | 4.81 | 35.81 | 36 | 367.68218866131 | 36.683366125544 | 0.60547018031712 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 20:00:15 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 39.19 | 30.61 | 34.9 | 102.79850070872 | 3.367 | 4.247 | 13.95 | 18.197 | T | T | 7.19 | 50.19 | 36 | 369.44677147525 | 37.978574199331 | 0.69735218632929 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 37.92 | 30.61 | 34.265 | 102.22330148447 | 3.0576 | 3.8576 | 14.13 | 17.9876 | T | T | 5.92 | 49.92 | 36 | 369.11275599099 | 37.731924537431 | 0.64943130631083 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 37.96 | 30.65 | 34.305 | 101.94589549631 | 3.0576 | 3.8576 | 14.16 | 18.0176 | T | T | 5.96 | 51.96 | 36 | 368.95149312703 | 37.613090361538 | 0.65098270515824 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 37.75 | 32.01 | 34.88 | 100.18263631527 | 2.7348 | 3.6248 | 14.65 | 18.2748 | T | T | 5.75 | 46.75 | 36 | 367.92380679251 | 36.859576927625 | 0.64281030812949 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.63 | 31.29 | 32.96 | 102.29306711959 | 3.0498 | 3.6798 | 15.11 | 18.7898 | T | T | 2.63 | 46.63 | 36 | 369.15329457703 | 37.761822739585 | 0.51564101293161 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 34.68 | 31.32 | 33 | 156.0163413015 | 3.0498 | 3.6798 | 14.33 | 18.0098 | T | T | 2.68 | 47.68 | 36 | 398.33137041705 | 62.146203038079 | 0.51772828116953 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 40.21 | 33.17 | 36.69 | 149.56257881754 | 1.7201 | 2.1301 | 14.7 | 16.8301 | T | T | 8.21 | 60.21 | 36 | 395.03296958864 | 59.082149649626 | 0.73356696464289 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 16:58:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 39.7 | 31.42 | 35.56 | 151.80385111583 | 2.2426 | 2.8626 | 14.93 | 17.7926 | T | T | 7.7 | 53.7 | 36 | 396.1845763757 | 60.142344446524 | 0.71573495787467 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 39.72 | 31.44 | 35.58 | 91.847636567354 | 2.2426 | 2.8626 | 14.89 | 17.7526 | T | T | 7.72 | 53.72 | 36 | 363.0030998451 | 33.340976787396 | 0.71644485470163 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 39.79 | 31.49 | 35.64 | 91.93357705721 | 2.2426 | 2.8626 | 14.73 | 17.5926 | T | T | 7.79 | 54.79 | 36 | 363.05436962194 | 33.376886865595 | 0.7189227890759 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 40.1 | 32.02 | 36.06 | 95.311525348471 | 2.9727 | 4.2027 | 14.75 | 18.9527 | T | T | 8.1 | 53.1 | 36 | 365.06072291481 | 34.794494345826 | 0.72976913825052 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.29 | 31.91 | 34.1 | 100.30963168208 | 2.8786 | 4.3386 | 15.26 | 19.5986 | T | T | 4.29 | 45.29 | 36 | 367.99797784323 | 36.913741617206 | 0.58436428192363 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.36 | 31.96 | 34.16 | 161.22203324796 | 2.8786 | 4.3386 | 14.15 | 18.4886 | T | T | 4.36 | 40.36 | 36 | 400.95278915731 | 64.642423904382 | 0.58722112482334 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 39.09 | 30.84 | 34.965 | 158.43264980728 | 1.7731 | 2.6331 | 14.8 | 17.4331 | T | T | 7.09 | 53.09 | 36 | 399.55245664032 | 63.302154442534 | 0.69368622874275 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 39.33 | 31.69 | 35.51 | 154.84529678976 | 1.0559 | 1.7459 | 15.01 | 16.7559 | T | T | 7.33 | 56.33 | 36 | 397.73687919133 | 61.587685102616 | 0.70245124606633 | 89 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 36.58 | 31.75 | 34.165 | 154.65125589984 | 0.9426 | 1.6326 | 14.57 | 16.2026 | T | T | 4.58 | 58.58 | 36 | 397.63820170761 | 61.495247287834 | 0.59616907607036 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 09:36:39 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 33.1 | 31.4 | 32.25 | 163.96458920763 | 1.3719 | 2.2519 | 15.62 | 17.8719 | T | T | 1.1 | 43.1 | 36 | 402.3199740775 | 65.966229279641 | 0.45183622592387 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 33.12 | 31.43 | 32.275 | 80.129191598645 | 1.1775 | 2.0575 | 16.32 | 18.3775 | T | T | 1.12 | 46.12 | 36 | 355.90633567165 | 28.518486962206 | 0.4526658724838 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 128 | -157 | 32.56 | 31.66 | 32.11 | 80.833433980042 | 0.6752 | 1.6552 | 16.5 | 18.1552 | T | T | 0.56 | 49.56 | 36 | 356.33882112052 | 28.804090571571 | 0.4295269334061 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |