Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 4, 2020

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DAY 127 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.55°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.197 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 21 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.82 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.15 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 133 in SWE DAY: 35 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 386.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 51.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -158 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	128	-158	28.18	28.18	28.18	135.31728279324	0.0776	0.0776	15.86	15.9376	T	T	-3.82	20.18	35	386.75738751552	52.334958778813	0.23955069977856	91	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.66	18.3	23.48	134.69291958139	0.791	0.791	15.86	16.651	T	T	-3.34	20.66	35	386.42227447438	52.048344340234	0.25563057514753	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.32	15.41	21.865	134.7429216997	0.7804	0.7804	15.86	16.6404	T	T	-3.68	20.32	35	386.44913157784	52.071285077111	0.24418294051792	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.35	17.63	22.99	2.4452447722728	0.6941	0.6941	15.86	16.5541	T	T	-3.65	20.35	35	301.99786629131	0.73845870378638	0.24518180017057	91	1	1	1	3	4	2	18	WET	L
2020-02-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.4	17.51	22.955	134.58082478321	0.7173	0.7173	15.86	16.5773	T	T	-3.6	20.4	35	386.36205379722	51.996923864967	0.2468514294283	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.37	16.6	22.485	134.03280273679	0.5392	0.5592	15.86	16.4192	T	T	-3.63	28.37	35	386.06739302067	51.745694731846	0.24584892337963	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.08	16.48	22.28	133.76976172518	0.4579	0.4779	15.86	16.3379	T	T	-3.92	28.08	35	385.92581524557	51.625204348997	0.23627150778271	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	27.91	16.71	22.31	133.85521176022	0.4568	0.4768	15.86	16.3368	T	T	-4.09	27.91	35	385.97181778497	51.664339403084	0.23075396272704	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-03 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.96	18.54	24.25	133.62045651074	0.4201	0.4801	15.86	16.3401	T	T	-2.04	29.96	35	385.84541191882	51.556840083168	0.30184411144082	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.72	17.14	23.43	1.7330045135857	0.3819	0.4619	15.86	16.3219	T	T	-2.28	26.72	35	301.46206811668	0.52243512472109	0.29303573633608	91	2	1	1	2	4	2	16	WET	L
2020-02-03 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.72	17.01	23.365	134.00304898674	0.4208	0.5308	15.86	16.3908	T	T	-2.28	30.72	35	386.05138326704	51.732062423334	0.29303573633608	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.45	17.24	23.345	134.4781971098	0.5268	0.6668	15.86	16.5268	T	T	-2.55	36.45	35	386.30690410545	51.949855995168	0.28327116943799	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.87	17.77	23.82	134.31889208312	0.5491	0.6491	15.86	16.5091	T	T	-2.13	36.87	35	386.2212688579	51.876812931929	0.2985270424877	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.3	17.91	23.105	135.06538650467	0.6081	0.6981	15.86	16.5581	T	T	-3.7	35.3	35	386.62225174635	52.219283863426	0.24351825312682	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.63	18.11	23.37	135.41148752136	0.6973	0.7873	15.86	16.6473	T	T	-3.37	35.63	35	386.80790367783	52.378233622035	0.25460935304982	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.79	17.17	22.98	136.52792819515	0.8268	0.9868	15.86	16.8468	T	T	-3.21	30.79	35	387.40566210545	52.891692418329	0.26008043211933	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.76	18.93	24.345	144.43653603114	0.8688	1.0088	14.76	15.7688	T	T	-2.24	16.76	35	391.5918570923	56.560171376413	0.29449550192907	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.51	17.6	24.055	144.44606854668	1.0418	1.2218	15	16.2218	T	T	-1.49	30.51	35	391.5968522862	56.564625767995	0.32246408703278	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-01 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.52	17.57	23.545	144.81893765248	1.0729	1.2829	15	16.2829	T	T	-2.48	29.52	35	391.79214692938	56.738922498898	0.28578770530262	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-01 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	29.58	16.46	23.02	145.45608331883	1.0643	1.2243	15	16.2243	T	T	-2.42	28.58	35	392.12543181332	57.037029481272	0.28795315398773	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-01 10:44:44	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.54	18.14	24.34	143.79276274677	0.6509	0.7909	15.07	15.8609	T	T	-1.46	30.54	35	391.25422932203	56.259526570573	0.32360544623256	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-01 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.58	14.49	22.535	81.228001671452	0.6149	0.8049	15.6	16.4049	T	T	-1.42	35.58	35	355.66203540855	28.889716406638	0.32512983995279	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.46	16.15	23.305	81.324297879846	0.6499	0.9199	16.15	17.0699	T	T	-1.54	36.46	35	355.72127772084	28.928783151569	0.32056553639362	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-01 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.51	18.05	24.28	98.685853220563	0.6499	0.9999	14.06	15.0599	T	T	-1.49	29.51	35	366.16890530417	36.135690842781	0.32246408703278	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-31 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.5	16.26	23.38	100.11260361032	0.8416	1.0916	14.34	15.4316	T	T	-1.5	42.5	35	367.00716645158	36.742042977113	0.32208400454192	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-31 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.71	15.67	23.19	100.51810475836	0.7637	1.0937	14.44	15.5337	T	T	-1.29	42.71	35	367.24485738801	36.914757046899	0.33010424420094	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.75	15.71	23.23	100.20659417229	0.7637	1.1237	14.44	15.5637	T	T	-1.25	44.75	35	367.06228231008	36.7820611594	0.33164094061246	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-31 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	32.78	18.71	25.745	99.799217243261	0.8462	1.4262	14.71	16.1362	T	T	0.78	39.78	35	366.82330227085	36.608678433219	0.4128296785368	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-31 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	31.47	17.02	24.245	101.51046825269	0.5792	1.2392	15.1	16.3392	T	T	-0.53	43.47	35	367.82551538435	37.338140301952	0.35976427467698	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-31 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	31.51	17.07	24.29	155.21868606673	0.5792	1.0892	14.47	15.5592	T	T	-0.49	43.51	35	397.16528119557	61.6474730985	0.361350898576	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	33.14	19.9	26.52	150.02352815087	0.3819	0.8319	14.88	15.7119	T	T	1.14	51.14	35	394.49889209844	59.184115644217	0.42774270696768	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:58:03	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.92	17.46	24.19	150.74488903149	0.5968	1.0068	15.14	16.1468	T	T	-1.08	44.92	35	394.87123391127	59.524820337681	0.33820327499242	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.94	17.46	24.2	90.782217559181	0.5968	1.0068	15.1	16.1068	T	T	-1.06	44.94	35	361.46983961076	32.815033620626	0.33897860240048	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.99	17.48	24.235	90.840539667584	0.5968	1.0168	14.93	15.9468	T	T	-1.01	45.99	35	361.5048613445	32.839296696989	0.34091989934273	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-30 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	31.36	19.99	25.675	94.512610357688	1.1448	1.5748	15.01	16.5848	T	T	-0.64	44.36	35	363.69948229072	34.374187457036	0.35541357000002	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-30 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	31.94	19.66	25.8	98.278771049525	1.4029	2.0429	15.28	17.3229	T	T	-0.059999999999999	39.94	35	365.92917404912	35.963069516715	0.37855269006659	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	31.99	19.68	25.835	159.12728869446	1.4029	2.1129	14.1	16.2129	T	T	-0.010000000000002	34.99	35	399.14828573515	63.515384496077	0.38056935649276	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.37	20.24	25.305	154.73020121058	0.817	1.347	14.91	16.257	T	T	-1.63	45.37	35	396.91606470927	61.414902556176	0.31715996548716	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	33.33	20.38	26.855	154.33513621729	0.6488	1.2388	15.06	16.2988	T	T	1.33	48.33	35	396.71428312451	61.226952925364	0.43565671835351	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	33.4	20.4	26.9	153.98041767724	0.6488	1.2388	14.62	15.8588	T	T	1.4	53.4	35	396.53293610973	61.058307124957	0.43857908907514	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-29 09:36:39	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.73	18.62	24.675	161.22110409717	0.8461	1.7961	15.3	17.0961	T	T	-1.27	40.73	35	400.20249942034	64.521088818994	0.33087223642654	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.75	18.63	24.69	77.299136929157	0.8461	1.7961	16	17.7961	T	T	-1.25	43.75	35	353.23256403488	27.304572335169	0.33164094061246	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	31.22	19.01	25.115	77.250895332329	0.941	2.001	16.08	18.081	T	T	-0.78	48.22	35	353.2025822026	27.285215708841	0.34990349632931	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	28.94	17.44	23.19	118.6727237668	0.941	2.001	14.67	16.671	T	T	-3.06	46.94	35	377.63949187971	44.815507103273	0.26526399261111	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	25.65	16	20.825	111.51577341478	0.4298	0.7998	16.37	17.1698	T	T	-6.35	33.65	35	373.59883677417	41.662163229732	0.16454300313963	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-01-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	30.09	13.46	21.775	107.4181828769	0.1565	0.4065	16.13	16.5365	T	T	-1.91	43.09	35	371.25214633837	39.879230948817	0.30666441288889	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-01-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	24.03	13.46	18.745	107.50090075539	0.0327	0.2827	16.02	16.3027	T	T	-7.97	39.03	35	371.29976082345	39.915058738784	0.12552928105919	91	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-01-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	17.52	13.7	15.61	113.74119516198	0	0.84	17.8	18.64	T	T	-14.48	18.52	35	374.86313843408	42.637381387664	0.032918236064259	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-01-28 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-158	19.18	16.56	17.87	114.71577315786	0	0.79	17.94	18.73	T	T	-12.82	25.18	35	375.41456735775	43.065972349168	0.04816510815387	91	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L