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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 1, 2020

[ Friday, January 31, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 2, 2020 ]

DAY 124 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.702
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 24

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.73 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 382.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-02 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020124-16137.4300631.4499234.43999132.0824131.14.6411.9216.56TT5.4300623.4300632382.57460201058 50.5313765860720.7030903266786585 41151215WETL
2020-02-02 00:00:12FORECAST2020125-16116.8916.8916.89140.024392732340.00393.543911.9215.4639TT-15.112.8932386.8747626804754.1719037078030.041540715701935851115127.5WETL
2020-02-01 12:00:10FORECAST2020124-16129.2220.124.66140.042491264850.24293.782911.9215.7029TT-2.7815.2232386.8844633451854.1802640785250.354987409385458521151210WETL
2020-02-01 10:44:44FORECAST2020124-16130.419.6225.01140.237481588160.30583.845811.9215.7658TT-1.616.432386.9889482774354.2703555088790.404471728639698521151210WETL
2020-02-01 08:00:10FORECAST2020124-16134.922027.4677.5956114528350.84214.382111.9216.3021TT2.9220.9232350.6136841163627.206083202740.601240075924818531151212.5WETL
2020-02-01 04:00:12FORECAST2020124-16137.3720.2828.82577.1888497456231.38654.926511.9216.8465TT5.3723.3732350.3580621137927.0437358136690.700794585762668541151215WETL
2020-02-01 00:00:15FORECAST2020124-16137.7820.9229.3594.1286564154871.53742.837411.9214.7574TT5.7819.7832360.7831862524933.9600365792450.716303424522758541151215WETL
2020-01-31 20:00:14FORECAST2020124-16137.9521.129.52595.2638295332681.59683.116811.9215.0368TT5.9527.9532361.4658898734334.4346249149940.72261916588258541151215WETL
2020-01-31 16:00:10FORECAST2020124-16137.621.6829.6495.4869583669211.70263.222611.9215.1426TT5.627.632361.5998502877634.5280698499120.709542093119648541151215WETL
2020-01-31 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.6121.5529.5894.9971559969791.69923.219211.9215.1392TT5.6127.6132361.3056867932934.3230126908980.709919691830468541151215WETL
2020-01-31 08:00:10FORECAST2020124-16137.6821.7729.72594.7529904593181.67173.491711.9215.4117TT5.6827.6832361.1589101126434.2208867642010.712556425306728541151215WETL
2020-01-31 04:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.8521.6629.75595.2656013166871.76313.883111.9215.8031TT5.8525.8532361.4669539025334.4353667196360.718912343092128541151215WETL
2020-01-31 00:00:13FORECAST2020124-16138.0221.4429.73149.737067821111.77833.248311.9215.1683TT6.0226.0232392.0171042850658.6994917313680.725199658568768541151215WETL
2020-01-30 20:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.3921.2729.33145.974474442221.54383.663811.9215.5838TT5.3932.3932390.0400518050256.9358915736540.701559961775168541151215WETL
2020-01-30 16:58:03FORECAST2020124-16137.2620.8529.055145.458685111841.60423.924211.9215.8442TT5.2632.2632389.7675550078356.6950760506970.696569206099398531151212.5WETL
2020-01-30 16:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.2720.8529.0685.4715937912921.60423.884211.9215.8042TT5.2732.2732355.5114920114230.3861338333360.696954430449338531151212.5WETL
2020-01-30 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.2821.0929.18585.6089590849151.59463.714611.9215.6346TT5.2828.2832355.5960485115230.442207567780.697339436037098531151212.5WETL
2020-01-30 08:00:10FORECAST2020124-16136.8920.0728.4885.9028561848041.53053.790511.9215.7105TT4.8931.8932355.7768605838730.5622484886170.68216531115848531151212.5WETL
2020-01-30 04:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.1621.1229.1487.1308005362661.86194.061911.9215.9819TT5.1628.1632356.5308610201631.0648193365710.69270500654298531151212.5WETL
2020-01-30 00:00:12FORECAST2020124-16136.8720.7428.805147.247524624792.05624.016210.7814.7962TT4.8723.8732390.7110913095857.5312410387880.681378553459548531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 20:00:10FORECAST2020124-16135.6120.4128.01146.540516536612.44334.263311.3515.6133TT3.6128.6132390.3386870728657.2004328278780.630294661726848531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 16:00:11FORECAST2020124-16136.0420.5128.275148.129786834592.51874.408711.3515.7587TT4.0429.0432391.1748706221457.9446502003070.648043516285638531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16136.4320.5328.48147.623280752262.11543.965411.3515.3154TT4.4334.4332390.9087423285257.7072310172750.663868321636638531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 09:36:39FORECAST2020124-16136.8220.5928.705149.497911762432.47094.430911.5716.0009TT4.8227.8232391.8920014112458.5870358473770.679408087407218531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 08:00:10FORECAST2020124-16136.8820.6128.74565.4052418539822.66664.906611.7916.6966TT4.8830.8832342.8370499321322.4233401673160.681772034732158531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 04:00:13FORECAST2020124-16137.220.9729.08563.910744016752.62214.902111.8816.7821TT5.232.232341.8669846921121.8489733464360.69425328526398531151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 00:00:12FORECAST2020124-16139.1319.5129.32103.946681238952.64434.514310.8615.3743TT7.1333.1332366.6232323563838.1092682685420.764471604824248541151215WETL
2020-01-28 20:00:11FORECAST2020124-16134.8721.6928.28104.529979473752.94915.959111.1117.0691TT2.8721.8732366.9656331061238.3589100961560.599110529363628531151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 16:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.2421.7129.475104.197266607722.6755.66511.1616.825TT5.2425.2432366.7703901376438.2164721249880.695798102486498531151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16137.2421.7129.475105.004899813252.6755.70511.0116.715TT5.2427.2432367.2440407380638.5624237047130.695798102486498531151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 08:00:11FORECAST2020124-16136.6422.6429.64106.030015998062.60757.207511.2918.4975TT4.6420.6432367.8438403801839.0024882802970.67227280840268531151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 04:00:12FORECAST2020124-16136.4324.6530.54107.804939439452.32557.065511.5718.6355TT4.4322.4332368.8786694238939.7669426177460.663868321636638531151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 00:00:12FORECAST2020124-16136.4324.6530.54136.779334306262.32557.065510.7117.7755TT4.4329.4332385.1282100032252.6775801868040.663868321636638531151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 20:00:11FORECAST2020124-16139.7725.5632.665135.386372202182.85217.392111.6319.0221TT7.7729.7732384.3740637362252.0390100578550.785627904517938541151215WETL
2020-01-27 16:00:10FORECAST2020124-16139.1131.4535.28132.129251041012.73427.754211.7819.5342TT7.1136.1132382.6002174531850.5526801802160.763792447844078541151215WETL
2020-01-27 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16139.1631.4535.305132.76267911572.73427.974211.8619.8342TT7.1640.1632382.9463363358350.8409815694860.765488320392378541151215WETL
2020-01-27 08:00:11FORECAST2020124-16140.1735.137.635136.019744300290.26363.773612.2416.0136TT8.1731.1732384.7173006488452.3291488621540.798270554833288541151215WETL
2020-01-27 04:00:13FORECAST2020124-16138.8134.8136.81134.599848162650.55143.671412.3816.0514TT6.8128.8132383.9470614156851.6792161690460.753476960934938541151215WETL
2020-01-27 00:00:13FORECAST2020124-16138.8134.8136.81138.069481082840.55143.471411.7115.1814TT6.8125.8132385.8243161908653.2705631256140.753476960934938541151215WETL
2020-01-26 20:00:11FORECAST2020124-16142.2535.1838.715133.718790138810.81873.568711.6215.1887TT10.2539.2532383.4677226813951.2768399342410.856547192636228551151217.5WETL
2020-01-26 16:00:11FORECAST2020124-16139.234.6936.945134.277864061110.87943.459411.9915.4494TT7.223.232383.7720106541751.532085877080.766840162435938541151215WETL
2020-01-26 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16139.2534.6936.97139.57643478910.87943.459412.1315.5894TT7.2527.2532386.6345187345753.9650676913730.768523874676758541151215WETL
2020-01-26 08:00:10FORECAST2020124-16137.8629.7633.81140.974470657611.25262.222612.2214.4426TT5.8623.8632387.3833943850754.6111689649840.719284098563638541151215WETL
2020-01-26 04:00:11FORECAST2020124-16132.2529.5830.915139.044018596121.20162.081612.7114.7916TT0.2525.2532386.3486233100153.7194651641020.484915754035638521151210WETL
2020-01-26 00:00:12FORECAST2020124-16132.329.5830.94134.431435576491.20162.081612.2714.3516TT0.328.332383.8555196237951.6022485569870.487113644519588521151210WETL
2020-01-25 20:00:11FORECAST2020124-16140.1731.5835.875135.553744705770.49932.349312.1214.4693TT8.1739.1732384.464819904652.1156460456970.798270554833288541151215WETL
2020-01-25 16:00:10FORECAST2020124-16138.8931.0334.96133.994221348150.34213.352112.4515.8021TT6.8929.8932383.6176860257751.4025531344030.756251100998138541151215WETL
2020-01-25 12:00:11FORECAST2020124-16133.8331.0332.43134.150410976520.21093.220912.6515.8709TT1.8330.8332383.7026795997251.4738721610960.554240100900298531151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 08:00:11FORECAST2020124-16133.1430.6831.91138.0581212829103.7713.9517.72TT1.1435.1432385.8181968937353.2653354199080.524044139778828531151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 04:00:12FORECAST2020124-16130.6630.2530.455138.302920166060.00113.141113.8516.9911TT-1.3428.6632385.9500260713953.3780156438410.415615431415818521151210WETL