Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 1, 2020
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Sunday, February 2, 2020 ]
DAY 124
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.00°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.702
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 24
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.73 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 382.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.50 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2020-02-02 04:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.43006 | 31.44992 | 34.43999 | 132.082413 | 1.1 | 4.64 | 11.92 | 16.56 | T | T | 5.43006 | 23.43006 | 32 | 382.57460201058 | 50.531376586072 | 0.70309032667865 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -161 | 16.89 | 16.89 | 16.89 | 140.02439273234 | 0.0039 | 3.5439 | 11.92 | 15.4639 | T | T | -15.11 | 2.89 | 32 | 386.87476268047 | 54.171903707803 | 0.041540715701935 | 85 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 12:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 29.22 | 20.1 | 24.66 | 140.04249126485 | 0.2429 | 3.7829 | 11.92 | 15.7029 | T | T | -2.78 | 15.22 | 32 | 386.88446334518 | 54.180264078525 | 0.35498740938545 | 85 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 30.4 | 19.62 | 25.01 | 140.23748158816 | 0.3058 | 3.8458 | 11.92 | 15.7658 | T | T | -1.6 | 16.4 | 32 | 386.98894827743 | 54.270355508879 | 0.40447172863969 | 85 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 34.92 | 20 | 27.46 | 77.595611452835 | 0.8421 | 4.3821 | 11.92 | 16.3021 | T | T | 2.92 | 20.92 | 32 | 350.61368411636 | 27.20608320274 | 0.60124007592481 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.37 | 20.28 | 28.825 | 77.188849745623 | 1.3865 | 4.9265 | 11.92 | 16.8465 | T | T | 5.37 | 23.37 | 32 | 350.35806211379 | 27.043735813669 | 0.70079458576266 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 00:00:15 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.78 | 20.92 | 29.35 | 94.128656415487 | 1.5374 | 2.8374 | 11.92 | 14.7574 | T | T | 5.78 | 19.78 | 32 | 360.78318625249 | 33.960036579245 | 0.71630342452275 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 20:00:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.95 | 21.1 | 29.525 | 95.263829533268 | 1.5968 | 3.1168 | 11.92 | 15.0368 | T | T | 5.95 | 27.95 | 32 | 361.46588987343 | 34.434624914994 | 0.7226191658825 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.6 | 21.68 | 29.64 | 95.486958366921 | 1.7026 | 3.2226 | 11.92 | 15.1426 | T | T | 5.6 | 27.6 | 32 | 361.59985028776 | 34.528069849912 | 0.70954209311964 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.61 | 21.55 | 29.58 | 94.997155996979 | 1.6992 | 3.2192 | 11.92 | 15.1392 | T | T | 5.61 | 27.61 | 32 | 361.30568679329 | 34.323012690898 | 0.70991969183046 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.68 | 21.77 | 29.725 | 94.752990459318 | 1.6717 | 3.4917 | 11.92 | 15.4117 | T | T | 5.68 | 27.68 | 32 | 361.15891011264 | 34.220886764201 | 0.71255642530672 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.85 | 21.66 | 29.755 | 95.265601316687 | 1.7631 | 3.8831 | 11.92 | 15.8031 | T | T | 5.85 | 25.85 | 32 | 361.46695390253 | 34.435366719636 | 0.71891234309212 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 38.02 | 21.44 | 29.73 | 149.73706782111 | 1.7783 | 3.2483 | 11.92 | 15.1683 | T | T | 6.02 | 26.02 | 32 | 392.01710428506 | 58.699491731368 | 0.72519965856876 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.39 | 21.27 | 29.33 | 145.97447444222 | 1.5438 | 3.6638 | 11.92 | 15.5838 | T | T | 5.39 | 32.39 | 32 | 390.04005180502 | 56.935891573654 | 0.70155996177516 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 16:58:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.26 | 20.85 | 29.055 | 145.45868511184 | 1.6042 | 3.9242 | 11.92 | 15.8442 | T | T | 5.26 | 32.26 | 32 | 389.76755500783 | 56.695076050697 | 0.69656920609939 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.27 | 20.85 | 29.06 | 85.471593791292 | 1.6042 | 3.8842 | 11.92 | 15.8042 | T | T | 5.27 | 32.27 | 32 | 355.51149201142 | 30.386133833336 | 0.69695443044933 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.28 | 21.09 | 29.185 | 85.608959084915 | 1.5946 | 3.7146 | 11.92 | 15.6346 | T | T | 5.28 | 28.28 | 32 | 355.59604851152 | 30.44220756778 | 0.69733943603709 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.89 | 20.07 | 28.48 | 85.902856184804 | 1.5305 | 3.7905 | 11.92 | 15.7105 | T | T | 4.89 | 31.89 | 32 | 355.77686058387 | 30.562248488617 | 0.6821653111584 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.16 | 21.12 | 29.14 | 87.130800536266 | 1.8619 | 4.0619 | 11.92 | 15.9819 | T | T | 5.16 | 28.16 | 32 | 356.53086102016 | 31.064819336571 | 0.6927050065429 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.87 | 20.74 | 28.805 | 147.24752462479 | 2.0562 | 4.0162 | 10.78 | 14.7962 | T | T | 4.87 | 23.87 | 32 | 390.71109130958 | 57.531241038788 | 0.68137855345954 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 20:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 35.61 | 20.41 | 28.01 | 146.54051653661 | 2.4433 | 4.2633 | 11.35 | 15.6133 | T | T | 3.61 | 28.61 | 32 | 390.33868707286 | 57.200432827878 | 0.63029466172684 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.04 | 20.51 | 28.275 | 148.12978683459 | 2.5187 | 4.4087 | 11.35 | 15.7587 | T | T | 4.04 | 29.04 | 32 | 391.17487062214 | 57.944650200307 | 0.64804351628563 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.43 | 20.53 | 28.48 | 147.62328075226 | 2.1154 | 3.9654 | 11.35 | 15.3154 | T | T | 4.43 | 34.43 | 32 | 390.90874232852 | 57.707231017275 | 0.66386832163663 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 09:36:39 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.82 | 20.59 | 28.705 | 149.49791176243 | 2.4709 | 4.4309 | 11.57 | 16.0009 | T | T | 4.82 | 27.82 | 32 | 391.89200141124 | 58.587035847377 | 0.67940808740721 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.88 | 20.61 | 28.745 | 65.405241853982 | 2.6666 | 4.9066 | 11.79 | 16.6966 | T | T | 4.88 | 30.88 | 32 | 342.83704993213 | 22.423340167316 | 0.68177203473215 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.2 | 20.97 | 29.085 | 63.91074401675 | 2.6221 | 4.9021 | 11.88 | 16.7821 | T | T | 5.2 | 32.2 | 32 | 341.86698469211 | 21.848973346436 | 0.6942532852639 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 39.13 | 19.51 | 29.32 | 103.94668123895 | 2.6443 | 4.5143 | 10.86 | 15.3743 | T | T | 7.13 | 33.13 | 32 | 366.62323235638 | 38.109268268542 | 0.76447160482424 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 34.87 | 21.69 | 28.28 | 104.52997947375 | 2.9491 | 5.9591 | 11.11 | 17.0691 | T | T | 2.87 | 21.87 | 32 | 366.96563310612 | 38.358910096156 | 0.59911052936362 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.24 | 21.71 | 29.475 | 104.19726660772 | 2.675 | 5.665 | 11.16 | 16.825 | T | T | 5.24 | 25.24 | 32 | 366.77039013764 | 38.216472124988 | 0.69579810248649 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.24 | 21.71 | 29.475 | 105.00489981325 | 2.675 | 5.705 | 11.01 | 16.715 | T | T | 5.24 | 27.24 | 32 | 367.24404073806 | 38.562423704713 | 0.69579810248649 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.64 | 22.64 | 29.64 | 106.03001599806 | 2.6075 | 7.2075 | 11.29 | 18.4975 | T | T | 4.64 | 20.64 | 32 | 367.84384038018 | 39.002488280297 | 0.6722728084026 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.43 | 24.65 | 30.54 | 107.80493943945 | 2.3255 | 7.0655 | 11.57 | 18.6355 | T | T | 4.43 | 22.43 | 32 | 368.87866942389 | 39.766942617746 | 0.66386832163663 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 36.43 | 24.65 | 30.54 | 136.77933430626 | 2.3255 | 7.0655 | 10.71 | 17.7755 | T | T | 4.43 | 29.43 | 32 | 385.12821000322 | 52.677580186804 | 0.66386832163663 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 39.77 | 25.56 | 32.665 | 135.38637220218 | 2.8521 | 7.3921 | 11.63 | 19.0221 | T | T | 7.77 | 29.77 | 32 | 384.37406373622 | 52.039010057855 | 0.78562790451793 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 39.11 | 31.45 | 35.28 | 132.12925104101 | 2.7342 | 7.7542 | 11.78 | 19.5342 | T | T | 7.11 | 36.11 | 32 | 382.60021745318 | 50.552680180216 | 0.76379244784407 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 39.16 | 31.45 | 35.305 | 132.7626791157 | 2.7342 | 7.9742 | 11.86 | 19.8342 | T | T | 7.16 | 40.16 | 32 | 382.94633633583 | 50.840981569486 | 0.76548832039237 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 40.17 | 35.1 | 37.635 | 136.01974430029 | 0.2636 | 3.7736 | 12.24 | 16.0136 | T | T | 8.17 | 31.17 | 32 | 384.71730064884 | 52.329148862154 | 0.79827055483328 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 38.81 | 34.81 | 36.81 | 134.59984816265 | 0.5514 | 3.6714 | 12.38 | 16.0514 | T | T | 6.81 | 28.81 | 32 | 383.94706141568 | 51.679216169046 | 0.75347696093493 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 38.81 | 34.81 | 36.81 | 138.06948108284 | 0.5514 | 3.4714 | 11.71 | 15.1814 | T | T | 6.81 | 25.81 | 32 | 385.82431619086 | 53.270563125614 | 0.75347696093493 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 42.25 | 35.18 | 38.715 | 133.71879013881 | 0.8187 | 3.5687 | 11.62 | 15.1887 | T | T | 10.25 | 39.25 | 32 | 383.46772268139 | 51.276839934241 | 0.85654719263622 | 85 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 39.2 | 34.69 | 36.945 | 134.27786406111 | 0.8794 | 3.4594 | 11.99 | 15.4494 | T | T | 7.2 | 23.2 | 32 | 383.77201065417 | 51.53208587708 | 0.76684016243593 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 39.25 | 34.69 | 36.97 | 139.5764347891 | 0.8794 | 3.4594 | 12.13 | 15.5894 | T | T | 7.25 | 27.25 | 32 | 386.63451873457 | 53.965067691373 | 0.76852387467675 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 37.86 | 29.76 | 33.81 | 140.97447065761 | 1.2526 | 2.2226 | 12.22 | 14.4426 | T | T | 5.86 | 23.86 | 32 | 387.38339438507 | 54.611168964984 | 0.71928409856363 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 32.25 | 29.58 | 30.915 | 139.04401859612 | 1.2016 | 2.0816 | 12.71 | 14.7916 | T | T | 0.25 | 25.25 | 32 | 386.34862331001 | 53.719465164102 | 0.48491575403563 | 85 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 32.3 | 29.58 | 30.94 | 134.43143557649 | 1.2016 | 2.0816 | 12.27 | 14.3516 | T | T | 0.3 | 28.3 | 32 | 383.85551962379 | 51.602248556987 | 0.48711364451958 | 85 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-25 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 40.17 | 31.58 | 35.875 | 135.55374470577 | 0.4993 | 2.3493 | 12.12 | 14.4693 | T | T | 8.17 | 39.17 | 32 | 384.4648199046 | 52.115646045697 | 0.79827055483328 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-25 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 38.89 | 31.03 | 34.96 | 133.99422134815 | 0.3421 | 3.3521 | 12.45 | 15.8021 | T | T | 6.89 | 29.89 | 32 | 383.61768602577 | 51.402553134403 | 0.75625110099813 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-01-25 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 33.83 | 31.03 | 32.43 | 134.15041097652 | 0.2109 | 3.2209 | 12.65 | 15.8709 | T | T | 1.83 | 30.83 | 32 | 383.70267959972 | 51.473872161096 | 0.55424010090029 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-25 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 33.14 | 30.68 | 31.91 | 138.05812128291 | 0 | 3.77 | 13.95 | 17.72 | T | T | 1.14 | 35.14 | 32 | 385.81819689373 | 53.265335419908 | 0.52404413977882 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-25 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 124 | -161 | 30.66 | 30.25 | 30.455 | 138.30292016606 | 0.0011 | 3.1411 | 13.85 | 16.9911 | T | T | -1.34 | 28.66 | 32 | 385.95002607139 | 53.378015643841 | 0.41561543141581 | 85 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |