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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 29, 2020

[ Tuesday, January 28, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 30, 2020 ]

DAY 121 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/30/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.460
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -29

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 145 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-30 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020121-1643224.6500628.3250385.0670870833331.143.5310.3613.89TT0-2929352.48042647257 29.9844831339130.4601211898278592 21151210WETL
2020-01-30 00:00:12FORECAST2020122-16429.1829.1829.18145.017266367230.00442.394410.3612.7544TT-2.82-31.8229387.145102416956.1427244399590.363086212885359221151210WETL
2020-01-29 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16436.4528.7932.62144.920124569450.56752.957510.3613.3175TT4.45-24.5529387.0930943024356.0975794462820.615820084848989231151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 09:36:39FORECAST2020121-16431.6829.5230.6145.007308453660.78913.179110.3613.5391TT-0.32-29.3229387.1397717046956.1380962902620.448873615089319221151210WETL
2020-01-29 08:00:10FORECAST2020121-16431.9329.3930.6661.0045027056611.01163.401610.3613.7616TT-0.07-29.0729337.012767351420.5592962777310.457657736673969221151210WETL
2020-01-29 04:00:13FORECAST2020121-16433.1929.2331.2160.592070424951.10113.491110.3613.8511TT1.19-27.8129336.7393244264320.4037328604960.502157044113569231151212.5WETL
2020-01-29 00:00:12FORECAST2020121-16436.0328.6932.36100.864802370621.16562.465610.3612.8256TT4.03-26.9729362.1332204911536.5264957166760.601515987188759231151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 20:00:11FORECAST2020121-16432.3529.3430.845100.204234074231.2062.71610.3613.076TT0.35-30.6529361.737308692936.2476099536440.472459546493099221151210WETL
2020-01-28 16:00:11FORECAST2020121-16431.8229.8330.825100.438609520821.25682.766810.3613.1268TT-0.18-31.1829361.8778577234336.3465088461130.453789916440639221151210WETL
2020-01-28 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16432.9530.1731.56101.255468594171.11412.624110.3612.9841TT0.95-30.0529362.3670539945536.6916458553060.493666058104979221151210WETL
2020-01-28 08:00:11FORECAST2020121-16433.4530.231.825104.259756681331.07372.903710.3613.2637TT1.45-28.5529364.1575402153937.9669765365260.511354389135139231151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 04:00:12FORECAST2020121-16433.7630.5532.155105.541320488951.03013.180110.3613.5401TT1.76-27.2429364.9171751004738.5138405291990.522312158724669231151212.5WETL
2020-01-28 00:00:12FORECAST2020121-16434.1430.3132.225134.459924325611.16742.317410.3612.6774TT2.14-20.8629381.4171165097151.2853166223890.535720440015479231151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 20:00:11FORECAST2020121-16433.2330.6731.95132.687231312110.99253.242510.3613.6025TT1.23-23.7729380.4401742047950.4795533951320.503572217327799231151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 16:00:10FORECAST2020121-16436.7530.4133.58132.503199196790.92673.386710.3613.7467TT4.75-23.2529380.3385006804150.3960681178660.625942834001799231151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16436.8231.0533.935134.0958585350.9193.46910.3613.829TT4.82-19.1829381.2168363309151.119598955790.628292657412399231151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 08:00:11FORECAST2020121-16432.6830.2631.47137.427550164121.11793.847910.3614.2079TT0.68-26.3229383.0427799786652.6406308605210.484117319480249221151210WETL
2020-01-27 04:00:13FORECAST2020121-16436.6929.6533.17135.958505894291.27043.990410.3614.3504TT4.69-22.3129382.2395700624451.9687208393650.623924965795889231151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 00:00:13FORECAST2020121-16436.9729.7333.35139.416204281010.99524.02529.6513.6752TT4.97-25.0329384.1253264133653.5532949767530.633311833548769231151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 20:00:11FORECAST2020121-16435.4931.5333.51134.661737948941.23743.547410.0413.5874TT3.49-23.5129381.5280586280251.3772314511330.5829253238489231151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 16:00:11FORECAST2020121-16435.0931.4633.275135.292228242581.28553.915510.0413.9555TT3.09-28.9129381.8742891578751.664623488720.56903142133179231151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16433.8730.632.235140.589035952181.14474.064710.0414.1047TT1.87-25.1329384.7612119315254.0932078572440.52619677713449231151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 08:00:10FORECAST2020121-16433.3827.3930.385141.214752729511.55954.099510.0914.1895TT1.38-26.6229385.0996887557954.3817573238620.508878571169519231151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 04:00:11FORECAST2020121-16436.6425.0930.865136.816178211571.56844.398410.2814.6784TT4.64-17.3629382.7088722832452.3607652734540.622240815269099231151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 00:00:12FORECAST2020121-16436.6825.0930.885131.959802445111.63374.29379.9514.2437TT4.68-14.3229380.0380089360650.1497405808360.623588323211399231151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 20:00:11FORECAST2020121-16437.2728.4132.84133.316303997371.23513.945110.1414.0851TT5.27-14.7329380.7873637662750.7651639462210.643281360845959231151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 16:00:10FORECAST2020121-16432.630.6531.625133.268028552991.27634.046310.3714.4163TT0.6-23.429380.7607398631550.7432331519420.481289565195079221151210WETL
2020-01-25 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16432.630.6531.625133.272823684451.27634.176310.4414.6163TT0.6-17.429380.7633845237450.7454114111280.481289565195079221151210WETL
2020-01-25 08:00:11FORECAST2020121-16437.0227.5232.27138.761801165141.20575.135710.7815.9157TT5.02-13.9829383.769698111753.252574542580.634979890225789231151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 04:00:12FORECAST2020121-16437.3528.5232.935138.768886420321.14954.789511.0315.8195TT5.35-19.6529383.7735516833153.2558284046640.645923788887399231151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 00:00:12FORECAST2020121-16437.3528.5232.935147.976722332731.14954.769510.815.5695TT5.35-13.6529388.7234112875957.5220162963340.645923788887399231151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 16:00:10FORECAST2020121-16440.330.3335.315147.609092779981.68164.711611.2215.9316TT8.3-11.729388.5279953449257.3502649124860.737604335798079241151215WETL
2020-01-24 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16440.3330.3335.33147.058285636971.68164.811611.0515.8616TT8.33-11.6729388.2348684099957.0931541728660.73847079471079241151215WETL
2020-01-24 08:00:11FORECAST2020121-16436.7530.2833.515137.34630866122.13275.742711.2316.9727TT4.75-14.2529382.9984388822452.6034218034770.625942834001799231151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 04:00:11FORECAST2020121-16437.2830.5233.9132.644840432692.04065.270611.3416.6106TT5.28-18.7229380.4167584285350.4603202196720.643612043537719231151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 00:00:13FORECAST2020121-16437.3230.5233.92135.67810760252.04065.21069.0714.2806TT5.32-15.6829382.0859194800251.8406944966090.644933693153259231151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 20:00:11FORECAST2020121-16438.428.2133.305143.023757589353.23376.553710.517.0537TT6.4-8.629386.075236046755.2179309715950.679914874932379231151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 16:00:10FORECAST2020121-16438.3929.7734.08140.042258130233.31976.549710.4416.9897TT6.39-11.6129384.4649957960653.8413461833110.679597612271429231151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16438.5229.7734.145139.445104489313.31976.549710.7617.3097TT6.52-8.4829384.1410182942153.5665844346660.683711722008559231151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 08:00:10FORECAST2020121-16438.0527.0932.57144.11975286131.90643.106411.3914.4964TT6.05-7.9529386.6640997258455.7259344928240.668733903797999231151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 04:00:12FORECAST2020121-16438.7130.6734.69136.41695257382.14763.387612.3415.7276TT6.71-9.2929382.4905506786652.1781953118580.689683887528669231151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 00:00:12FORECAST2020121-16438.7428.9833.86134.827484685462.17313.413110.9414.3531TT6.74-4.2629381.6191313316451.4527475852950.690622363211739231151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 20:00:10FORECAST2020121-16436.7927.2332.01136.810292965220.83652.396511.714.0965TT4.79-8.2129382.7056554690952.3580728441730.627286169405439231151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 16:00:10FORECAST2020121-16437.2428.4732.855134.534212738880.64692.176911.813.9769TT5.24-13.7629381.4579613676151.319146525570.642288667672549231151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 12:00:11FORECAST2020121-16432.2928.4730.38135.453676607080.18771.717712.1113.8277TT0.29-17.7129381.9628585705851.7382735207350.470342190302079221151210WETL
2020-01-22 08:00:11FORECAST2020121-16434.3131.8633.085135.042254654770.49762.607612.0114.6176TT2.31-15.6929381.7370837704951.5506364777040.541706685336599231151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 04:00:12FORECAST2020121-16433.132.4832.79133.693982948610.0721.82211.9513.772TT1.1-10.929380.995541034450.9368113665490.498972832266449221151210WETL