MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 25, 2020

[ Friday, January 24, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 26, 2020 ]

DAY 117 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/26/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.596
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.58 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 128 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 374.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -168

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-26 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020117-16835.1528.9432.045128.006633750.579999999999983.619.3312.94TT3.15-55.8525374.46895515023 47.9345103926610.596035556436389 31151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 00:00:12FORECAST2020118-16835.0435.0435.04121.983381333330.01343.04349.3312.3734TT3.04-55.9625371.02438779845.258809380730.590947636565518931151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16838.1232.9935.555121.7316960.06393.09399.3312.4239TT6.12-52.8825370.879304217645.1477667137090.724822486036138941151215WETL
2020-01-25 08:00:11FORECAST2020117-16838.2231.2634.74122.14572646350.20463.23469.3312.5646TT6.22-52.7825371.1179221749445.3304682076830.728788383212158941151215WETL
2020-01-25 04:00:12FORECAST2020117-16833.9130.4232.165123.34222316340.49213.52219.3312.8521TT1.91-57.0925371.8060897193145.8593896916710.537942769838478931151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 00:00:12FORECAST2020117-16836.831.0133.905132.441792922420.78293.33299.3312.6629TT4.8-55.225376.9718494575549.9268276234390.669970857189418931151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 16:00:10FORECAST2020117-16835.5330.6933.11131.755157376120.67033.44039.3312.7703TT3.53-52.4725376.5862025725449.6171743856210.613482293137138931151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16836.0832.7334.405131.417759985840.6553.4259.3312.755TT4.08-51.9225376.3964577073649.4651793385060.638324716893288931151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 08:00:11FORECAST2020117-16837.3430.5733.955130.976521193860.61863.56869.3312.8986TT5.34-54.6625376.1480692163349.266565559740.692946724338568931151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 04:00:11FORECAST2020117-16834.2131.5632.885130.827695916670.68943.89949.3313.2294TT2.21-54.7925376.0642275474549.1996164067140.552120867610918931151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 00:00:13FORECAST2020117-16836.2633.3634.81132.617005333330.81341.72349.3311.0534TT4.26-53.7425377.0701493411550.0059140062160.646335723554038931151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 20:00:11FORECAST2020117-16837.7232.0634.89132.622436939550.61923.04929.3312.3792TT5.72-46.2825377.0731959505450.0083661515430.70867953473778941151215WETL
2020-01-23 16:00:10FORECAST2020117-16835.4432.3633.9132.816715944260.55852.92859.3312.2585TT3.44-48.5625377.1821401777750.096093171240.609369413330318931151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16839.2831.0735.175132.3279281.01413.32419.3312.6541TT7.28-43.7225376.9079440612649.8754472843660.769000766680858941151215WETL
2020-01-23 08:00:10FORECAST2020117-16840.331.3335.815132.13081.00783.87789.3313.2078TT8.3-41.725376.7972645007749.7865239962980.804337320497518941151215WETL
2020-01-23 04:00:12FORECAST2020117-16840.132.9236.51131.786778666671.13154.67159.3314.0015TT8.1-45.925376.6039773575549.6314250090060.797679213894618941151215WETL
2020-01-23 00:00:12FORECAST2020117-16838.5732.8535.71129.956522666671.05364.99367.7512.7436TT6.57-45.4325375.5728102760348.808136431620.74244101764088941151215WETL
2020-01-22 20:00:10FORECAST2020117-16839.9231.8135.865129.113470666670.93644.93648.813.7364TT7.92-44.0825375.0962193935548.4299747198460.791572822182228941151215WETL
2020-01-22 16:00:10FORECAST2020117-16835.9232.6634.29129.108714666670.97884.86888.813.6688TT3.92-47.0825375.0935278541548.4278432610340.631152458933778931151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16837.432.3234.86129.816509664371.05735.17738.813.9773TT5.4-45.625375.4937293237648.7452853416680.695455619161618931151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 08:00:10FORECAST2020117-16833.9731.3832.675130.115768877930.93254.87259.0413.9125TT1.97-51.0325375.6627201882548.8796436760680.540782835771638931151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 04:00:12FORECAST2020117-16835.7532.5634.155129.30118665460.9114.8719.1213.991TT3.75-48.2525375.2024266045648.5141189956540.623481640277648931151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 00:00:12FORECAST2020117-16835.7532.0633.905129.658291331720.86744.78748.1312.9174TT3.75-56.2525375.4043319384348.6742842376640.623481640277648931151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 20:00:11FORECAST2020117-16835.4932.3833.935127.918768976430.81494.52498.8413.3649TT3.49-61.5125374.4190850213847.8952284372160.611655889299478931151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 16:00:11FORECAST2020117-16835.832.1133.955127.16478739340.70354.29359.0113.3035TT3.8-59.225373.9906836788947.5584457771390.625742983103278931151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16835.0329.2332.13130.875485601480.56824.06829.0813.1482TT3.03-55.9725376.0911536257849.2211123611950.590484323939888931151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 08:00:12FORECAST2020117-16838.3727.6533.01130.327296478530.47123.91129.2213.1312TT6.37-51.6325375.7820917865348.9746640875870.734683368794878941151215WETL
2020-01-21 04:00:11FORECAST2020117-16835.2928.7632.025131.283459514530.67494.03499.5913.6249TT3.29-57.7125376.3208848217449.4047076469680.602487564398528931151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 00:00:13FORECAST2020117-16838.5128.8233.665137.474207296310.89383.91389.6113.5238TT6.51-57.4925379.7778546870652.2096595217960.740126137196478941151215WETL
2020-01-20 20:00:11FORECAST2020117-16838.5228.8233.67138.268673244390.89384.11389.9614.0738TT6.52-48.4825380.2175690455952.572178816140.740512693580458941151215WETL
2020-01-20 16:00:11FORECAST2020117-16836.8930.6233.755137.585179127231.23814.26819.9814.2481TT4.89-43.1125379.8393277741252.2602619513690.673848042616418931151212.5WETL
2020-01-20 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16834.4230.8232.62136.220279382841.23554.445510.2614.7055TT2.42-45.5825379.0820331933351.6386604706120.562007155249098931151212.5WETL
2020-01-20 08:00:11FORECAST2020117-16834.0931.9633.025136.822923195140.96034.190310.0714.2603TT2.09-52.9125379.416724975151.9129054202220.546456584727858931151212.5WETL
2020-01-20 04:00:11FORECAST2020117-16834.5732.4233.495133.919884261710.79243.392410.0113.4024TT2.57-50.4325377.7997364397850.5948969781190.569045538424438931151212.5WETL
2020-01-20 00:00:13FORECAST2020117-16835.1432.8533.995138.600661716160.79243.31249.8613.1724TT3.14-56.8625380.4010525396952.7238375995250.595573675024278931151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 20:00:11FORECAST2020117-16835.7332.9334.33138.339465514550.96763.37769.9513.3276TT3.73-50.2725380.2567075196852.6045096765950.622575910740838931151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 16:00:10FORECAST2020117-16836.1232.9134.515138.089370957750.93333.28339.6312.9133TT4.12-46.8825380.1184078345352.4903118273310.6401103313258931151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16836.1632.9334.545138.315560681460.93333.28339.7613.0433TT4.16-49.8425380.2434921929752.5935918181450.641892894618028931151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 08:00:11FORECAST2020117-16836.6633.635.13137.779599535041.40593.39599.3112.7059TT4.66-48.3425379.9469856195652.3489435232080.663903379051918931151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 04:00:11FORECAST2020117-16836.5731.8634.215137.968554248050.91813.12818.9712.0981TT4.57-58.4325380.0515659743252.4351650971840.659980073669848931151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 00:00:13FORECAST2020117-16836.5931.9134.25134.871646634990.91813.12818.4211.5481TT4.59-54.4125378.3311810025951.0261493551810.660853435388828931151212.5WETL
2020-01-18 20:00:11FORECAST2020117-16834.3931.7533.07134.124477674730.75743.06748.611.6674TT2.39-56.6125377.9140856283350.6875293408250.560597047847288931151212.5WETL
2020-01-18 16:00:10FORECAST2020117-16834.5431.6533.095134.596662874780.12372.27378.4910.7637TT2.54-52.4625378.1777676693250.9014655017250.567639540734778931151212.5WETL
2020-01-18 12:00:11FORECAST2020117-16834.3631.6933.025134.817828526990.06642.21648.3510.5664TT2.36-54.6425378.3011643338551.0017415047230.55918617120228931151212.5WETL
2020-01-18 08:00:10FORECAST2020117-16834.9234.1234.52134.04537972380.82932.68938.711.3893TT2.92-50.0825377.8698840831850.6517120981190.585379681592428931151212.5WETL
2020-01-18 04:00:12FORECAST2020117-16834.7134.1234.415136.226996975030.37732.55739.111.6573TT2.71-52.2925379.0857667833351.6417156048680.575595018097098931151212.5WETL