Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 21, 2020

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DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2020 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.11°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.12°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.606 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -76 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.10 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.90 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 130 in SWE DAY: 21 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.91 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 48.16 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-22 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	113	-172	36.10994	25.12004	30.61499	129.50269375	1.1	1.12	13.9	15.02	T	T	4.10994	-75.89006	21	371.90726564402	48.162992726098	0.60552324626417	90	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-22 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	114	-172	27.48	27.48	27.48	130.09115365532	0.0217	0.0417	13.9	13.9417	T	T	-4.52	-84.52	21	372.24480198957	48.425755733017	0.25251689446997	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-01-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	28.5	25.5	27	129.77555854705	0.8715	0.8915	13.9	14.7915	T	T	-3.5	-83.5	21	372.06384165062	48.284792865372	0.28905200845767	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	29.51	25.27	27.39	129.82862850479	0.895	0.915	13.9	14.815	T	T	-2.49	-82.49	21	372.09428179201	48.308490279531	0.32750537931545	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.62	25.64	29.13	130.68763646635	1.4386	1.4586	13.9	15.3586	T	T	0.62	-79.38	21	372.58642572786	48.692439357817	0.45615120766151	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.48	25.95	29.215	136.29061173892	1.5508	1.5508	13.9	15.4508	T	T	0.48	-84.52	21	375.77027941121	51.213961254257	0.45014674332805	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.24	26.1	29.17	136.75091391332	1.6674	1.6974	13.9	15.5974	T	T	0.24	-75.76	21	376.02983450515	51.422423527253	0.43988062425477	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-20 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.25	27.67	29.96	136.52980749458	1.6753	1.7053	13.9	15.6053	T	T	0.25	-75.75	21	375.90519493799	51.322263901096	0.4403076221924	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.92	27.98	29.95	135.45816089596	1.7885	1.8185	13.9	15.7185	T	T	-0.079999999999998	-76.08	21	375.30010584717	50.837462122115	0.42625626010351	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.75	27.79	29.77	136.01230227818	1.5755	1.6055	13.9	15.5055	T	T	-0.25	-76.25	21	375.61319905823	51.088015969981	0.41905288642094	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-20 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.79	27.86	29.825	134.21798792697	1.5369	1.5669	13.9	15.4669	T	T	-0.21	-78.21	21	374.59780186138	50.2777632477	0.42074545259586	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.5	27.63	30.065	139.04046091173	1.4948	1.5348	13.9	15.4348	T	T	0.5	-85.5	21	377.31636471914	52.462241260088	0.45100385823516	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.27	27.84	30.055	139.2207136819	1.5124	1.5824	13.9	15.4824	T	T	0.27	-77.73	21	377.41733406411	52.544310604326	0.44116182585159	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-19 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.37	27.93	30.15	138.83530601603	1.3425	1.4125	13.9	15.3125	T	T	0.37	-77.63	21	377.20139008125	52.368870421602	0.4454368724746	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.49	27.78	30.135	138.5720033717	1.4603	1.5403	13.9	15.4403	T	T	0.49	-78.51	21	377.05373997331	52.249092126893	0.45057527197101	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.65	28.64	30.645	137.68422565424	1.0979	1.2379	13.9	15.1379	T	T	0.65	-78.35	21	376.55517960173	51.845708319558	0.45743923001135	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	33.24	28.6	30.92	137.54954106752	1.0752	1.2452	13.9	15.1452	T	T	1.24	-85.76	21	376.47944483951	51.784574859028	0.48284415101527	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	33.54	28.54	31.04	134.44434230736	1.1273	1.3273	13.3	14.6273	T	T	1.54	-82.46	21	374.72615035547	50.379810829911	0.49579521886225	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-18 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.57	27.93	30.25	134.20608618913	1.0342	1.2142	13.45	14.6642	T	T	0.57	-79.43	21	374.59105124142	50.272398908584	0.45400553391436	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-18 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.59	26.94	29.765	134.21438401012	1.0592	1.3392	13.45	14.7892	T	T	0.59	-77.41	21	374.59575775513	50.27613887991	0.45486364590785	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.66	26.95	29.805	134.37877172857	0.9863	1.1963	13.45	14.6463	T	T	0.66	-79.34	21	374.68897781825	50.35024461945	0.45786867082966	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-18 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.83	27.43	30.13	134.6295452391	0.9517	1.2217	13.66	14.8817	T	T	0.83	-76.17	21	374.83111009235	50.4633418932	0.46517628395388	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.15	26.94	29.545	136.17564107022	0.8932	1.2132	14.03	15.2432	T	T	0.15	-78.85	21	375.70540239641	51.161924024875	0.4360408475011	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.49	26.87	29.18	139.91433453434	0.9424	1.2724	14.13	15.4024	T	T	-0.51	-82.51	21	377.80543777548	52.860396409811	0.40808903686404	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.14	27.33	29.735	138.74592815629	0.6761	1.0761	14.28	15.3561	T	T	0.14	-76.86	21	377.15128144736	52.328204599746	0.43561457065618	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.14	27.5	29.82	138.91532064395	0.7171	1.1771	14.32	15.4971	T	T	0.14	-77.86	21	377.24623968112	52.405282347028	0.43561457065618	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.15	27.53	29.84	138.06197970138	0.7171	1.2671	14.4	15.6671	T	T	0.15	-73.85	21	376.7674570562	52.017261008235	0.4360408475011	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.78	27.51	29.645	139.22358245414	0.5594	1.0294	14.61	15.6394	T	T	-0.22	-75.22	21	377.41894064522	52.545617002674	0.42032217241077	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	34.7	28.13	31.415	140.56731953756	1.0733	1.5633	14.76	16.3233	T	T	2.7	-76.3	21	378.17018007337	53.158368541952	0.54579174455742	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	34.73	28.15	31.44	141.38279904125	1.0733	1.4933	14.37	15.8633	T	T	2.73	-84.27	21	378.62483935668	53.531039574792	0.54707858581629	90	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	34.76	28.24	31.5	141.62595106757	1.0733	1.3933	14.5	15.8933	T	T	2.76	-76.24	21	378.76022323249	53.642276841867	0.54836493286309	90	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	33.92	28.02	30.97	140.35815673076	1.1791	1.5291	14.49	16.0191	T	T	1.92	-76.08	21	378.05341242142	53.062880113243	0.51220452609813	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.34	28.04	30.19	141.15807584822	1.1875	1.5675	14.58	16.1475	T	T	0.34	-75.66	21	378.49964204476	53.428281180277	0.44415366897822	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	33.42	30	31.71	147.54139974497	0.3011	0.5411	14.68	15.2211	T	T	1.42	-75.58	21	382.02823805882	56.364980985301	0.49061349478575	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	33.16	28.79	30.975	149.01959338915	0.373	0.533	14.81	15.343	T	T	1.16	-78.84	21	382.83723305415	57.050248803956	0.47939302388071	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	33.18	28.81	30.995	153.90377979878	0.373	0.483	14.81	15.293	T	T	1.18	-72.82	21	385.48878456835	59.328181015105	0.48025567098151	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-01-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	35.71	26.19	30.95	151.58943909012	0.3085	0.4485	14.76	15.2085	T	T	3.71	-70.29	21	384.23646385362	58.246190033543	0.58876685881329	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-01-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.55	26.74	29.145	152.54933571404	0.3697	0.5697	14.83	15.3997	T	T	-0.45	-75.45	21	384.75677037026	58.694389731464	0.41061310972003	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.6	26.76	29.18	154.01003180282	0.3697	0.5697	14.93	15.4997	T	T	-0.4	-71.4	21	385.54610239153	59.377967490771	0.41271933954197	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.31	27.73	30.02	163.39898120008	1.4566	1.8766	14.72	16.5966	T	T	0.31	-69.69	21	390.55039540103	63.815536715817	0.44287105060089	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	30.86	27.35	29.105	161.96225415617	1.3538	1.7938	14.7	16.4938	T	T	-1.14	-72.14	21	389.7923348997	63.131645213152	0.38183513124244	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.13	28.53	29.83	158.14124576959	0.2474	1.3974	14.4	15.7974	T	T	-0.87	-81.87	21	387.76274178423	61.321283048789	0.39302805240941	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.89	28.06	29.975	159.39660611237	0.2249	1.3649	14.55	15.9149	T	T	-0.11	-92.11	21	388.43172152839	61.914698118011	0.42498321567604	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	32.52	26.85	29.685	161.07234386217	0.0754	1.2954	14.81	16.1054	T	T	0.52	-85.48	21	389.32140208878	62.708910750145	0.45186120164884	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	31.41	26.87	29.14	162.34408794486	0.0748	1.2948	14.73	16.0248	T	T	-0.59	-91.59	21	389.99407190286	63.313231906971	0.40472954652805	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	30.24	29.16	29.7	164.17912571804	0.0563	1.1863	14.94	16.1263	T	T	-1.76	-89.76	21	390.96086572909	64.187613125369	0.35651727273335	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	113	-172	29	27.63	28.315	163.90816318026	0.0068	1.1668	14.92	16.0868	T	T	-3	-89	21	390.81839191369	64.058324755638	0.30782503092262	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L