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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 21, 2020

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DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2020 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.606
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -76

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-22 04:00:12OBSERVATION2020113-17236.1099425.1200430.61499129.502693751.11.1213.915.02TT4.10994-75.8900621371.90726564402 48.1629927260980.6055232462641790 31141210WETL
2020-01-22 00:00:12FORECAST2020114-17227.4827.4827.48130.091153655320.02170.041713.913.9417TT-4.52-84.5221372.2448019895748.4257557330170.25251689446997902111122WETL
2020-01-21 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17228.525.527129.775558547050.87150.891513.914.7915TT-3.5-83.521372.0638416506248.2847928653720.28905200845767902113126WETL
2020-01-21 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17229.5125.2727.39129.828628504790.8950.91513.914.815TT-2.49-82.4921372.0942817920148.3084902795310.32750537931545902113126WETL
2020-01-21 04:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.6225.6429.13130.687636466351.43861.458613.915.3586TT0.62-79.3821372.5864257278648.6924393578170.45615120766151902114128WETL
2020-01-21 00:00:13FORECAST2020113-17232.4825.9529.215136.290611738921.55081.550813.915.4508TT0.48-84.5221375.7702794112151.2139612542570.450146743328059021151210WETL
2020-01-20 20:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.2426.129.17136.750913913321.66741.697413.915.5974TT0.24-75.7621376.0298345051551.4224235272530.439880624254779021151210WETL
2020-01-20 16:00:10FORECAST2020113-17232.2527.6729.96136.529807494581.67531.705313.915.6053TT0.25-75.7521375.9051949379951.3222639010960.44030762219249021151210WETL
2020-01-20 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.9227.9829.95135.458160895961.78851.818513.915.7185TT-0.079999999999998-76.0821375.3001058471750.8374621221150.426256260103519021151210WETL
2020-01-20 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.7527.7929.77136.012302278181.57551.605513.915.5055TT-0.25-76.2521375.6131990582351.0880159699810.419052886420949021151210WETL
2020-01-20 04:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.7927.8629.825134.217987926971.53691.566913.915.4669TT-0.21-78.2121374.5978018613850.27776324770.420745452595869021151210WETL
2020-01-20 00:00:13FORECAST2020113-17232.527.6330.065139.040460911731.49481.534813.915.4348TT0.5-85.521377.3163647191452.4622412600880.451003858235169021151210WETL
2020-01-19 20:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.2727.8430.055139.22071368191.51241.582413.915.4824TT0.27-77.7321377.4173340641152.5443106043260.441161825851599021151210WETL
2020-01-19 16:00:10FORECAST2020113-17232.3727.9330.15138.835306016031.34251.412513.915.3125TT0.37-77.6321377.2013900812552.3688704216020.4454368724746902114128WETL
2020-01-19 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.4927.7830.135138.57200337171.46031.540313.915.4403TT0.49-78.5121377.0537399733152.2490921268930.450575271971019021151210WETL
2020-01-19 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.6528.6430.645137.684225654241.09791.237913.915.1379TT0.65-78.3521376.5551796017351.8457083195580.45743923001135902114128WETL
2020-01-19 04:00:11FORECAST2020113-17233.2428.630.92137.549541067521.07521.245213.915.1452TT1.24-85.7621376.4794448395151.7845748590280.48284415101527902114128WETL
2020-01-19 00:00:13FORECAST2020113-17233.5428.5431.04134.444342307361.12731.327313.314.6273TT1.54-82.4621374.7261503554750.3798108299110.49579521886225902114128WETL
2020-01-18 20:00:10FORECAST2020113-17232.5727.9330.25134.206086189131.03421.214213.4514.6642TT0.57-79.4321374.5910512414250.2723989085840.45400553391436902114128WETL
2020-01-18 16:00:10FORECAST2020113-17232.5926.9429.765134.214384010121.05921.339213.4514.7892TT0.59-77.4121374.5957577551350.276138879910.45486364590785902114128WETL
2020-01-18 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.6626.9529.805134.378771728570.98631.196313.4514.6463TT0.66-79.3421374.6889778182550.350244619450.45786867082966902114128WETL
2020-01-18 08:00:10FORECAST2020113-17232.8327.4330.13134.62954523910.95171.221713.6614.8817TT0.83-76.1721374.8311100923550.46334189320.46517628395388902114128WETL
2020-01-18 04:00:12FORECAST2020113-17232.1526.9429.545136.175641070220.89321.213214.0315.2432TT0.15-78.8521375.7054023964151.1619240248750.4360408475011902114128WETL
2020-01-18 00:00:12FORECAST2020113-17231.4926.8729.18139.914334534340.94241.272414.1315.4024TT-0.51-82.5121377.8054377754852.8603964098110.40808903686404902114128WETL
2020-01-17 20:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.1427.3329.735138.745928156290.67611.076114.2815.3561TT0.14-76.8621377.1512814473652.3282045997460.43561457065618902114128WETL
2020-01-17 16:00:10FORECAST2020113-17232.1427.529.82138.915320643950.71711.177114.3215.4971TT0.14-77.8621377.2462396811252.4052823470280.43561457065618902114128WETL
2020-01-17 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.1527.5329.84138.061979701380.71711.267114.415.6671TT0.15-73.8521376.767457056252.0172610082350.4360408475011902114128WETL
2020-01-17 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.7827.5129.645139.223582454140.55941.029414.6115.6394TT-0.22-75.2221377.4189406452252.5456170026740.42032217241077902114128WETL
2020-01-17 04:00:11FORECAST2020113-17234.728.1331.415140.567319537561.07331.563314.7616.3233TT2.7-76.321378.1701800733753.1583685419520.545791744557429031151212.5WETL
2020-01-17 00:00:12FORECAST2020113-17234.7328.1531.44141.382799041251.07331.493314.3715.8633TT2.73-84.2721378.6248393566853.5310395747920.547078585816299031141210WETL
2020-01-16 20:00:11FORECAST2020113-17234.7628.2431.5141.625951067571.07331.393314.515.8933TT2.76-76.2421378.7602232324953.6422768418670.548364932863099031141210WETL
2020-01-16 16:00:11FORECAST2020113-17233.9228.0230.97140.358156730761.17911.529114.4916.0191TT1.92-76.0821378.0534124214253.0628801132430.512204526098139031151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.3428.0430.19141.158075848221.18751.567514.5816.1475TT0.34-75.6621378.4996420447653.4282811802770.444153668978229021151210WETL
2020-01-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17233.423031.71147.541399744970.30110.541114.6815.2211TT1.42-75.5821382.0282380588256.3649809853010.49061349478575902113126WETL
2020-01-16 04:00:13FORECAST2020113-17233.1628.7930.975149.019593389150.3730.53314.8115.343TT1.16-78.8421382.8372330541557.0502488039560.47939302388071902113126WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020113-17233.1828.8130.995153.903779798780.3730.48314.8115.293TT1.18-72.8221385.4887845683559.3281810151050.48025567098151902112124WETL
2020-01-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020113-17235.7126.1930.95151.589439090120.30850.448514.7615.2085TT3.71-70.2921384.2364638536258.2461900335430.58876685881329903112125WETL
2020-01-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.5526.7429.145152.549335714040.36970.569714.8315.3997TT-0.45-75.4521384.7567703702658.6943897314640.41061310972003902113126WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.626.7629.18154.010031802820.36970.569714.9315.4997TT-0.4-71.421385.5461023915359.3779674907710.41271933954197902113126WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.3127.7330.02163.398981200081.45661.876614.7216.5966TT0.31-69.6921390.5503954010363.8155367158170.442871050600899021151210WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020113-17230.8627.3529.105161.962254156171.35381.793814.716.4938TT-1.14-72.1421389.792334899763.1316452131520.381835131242449021151210WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020113-17231.1328.5329.83158.141245769590.24741.397414.415.7974TT-0.87-81.8721387.7627417842361.3212830487890.39302805240941902114128WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.8928.0629.975159.396606112370.22491.364914.5515.9149TT-0.11-92.1121388.4317215283961.9146981180110.42498321567604902114128WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020113-17232.5226.8529.685161.072343862170.07541.295414.8116.1054TT0.52-85.4821389.3214020887862.7089107501450.45186120164884902114128WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:11FORECAST2020113-17231.4126.8729.14162.344087944860.07481.294814.7316.0248TT-0.59-91.5921389.9940719028663.3132319069710.40472954652805902114128WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020113-17230.2429.1629.7164.179125718040.05631.186314.9416.1263TT-1.76-89.7621390.9608657290964.1876131253690.35651727273335902114128WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:12FORECAST2020113-1722927.6328.315163.908163180260.00681.166814.9216.0868TT-3-8921390.8183919136964.0583247556380.30782503092262902114128WETL