Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 19, 2020

[ Saturday, January 18, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, January 20, 2020 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/20/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.841
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.72 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -174

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-20 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020111-17443.5399831.2200637.38002131.9075445833300.7214.2815TT11.53998-82.4600219371.56990550045 49.0128738756250.8413218191812191 4113129WETL
2020-01-20 00:00:13FORECAST2020112-17436.3236.3236.32136.9763840.00020.720214.2815.0002TT4.32-89.6819374.4651937988151.292888180420.59334764424294913113127.5WETL
2020-01-19 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17443.0635.5339.295136.555997333330.02680.746814.2815.0268TT11.06-82.9419374.2264866838751.1028711176650.82871718499181914113129WETL
2020-01-19 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17442.5533.6738.11136.5347320.0920.81214.2815.092TT10.55-83.4519374.2144048683651.0932634792410.81464400027894914113129WETL
2020-01-19 04:00:11FORECAST2020111-17438.2533.1935.72136.846763916670.10560.825614.2815.1056TT6.25-87.7519374.3916191267751.2342815150190.6701339218249913113127.5WETL
2020-01-19 00:00:13FORECAST2020111-17441.3131.5536.43133.576005333330.12040.240414.2814.5204TT9.31-84.6919372.5270380697649.7606736240170.77755093703531914112126WETL
2020-01-18 20:00:10FORECAST2020111-17441.6433.5137.575133.4878280.13450.404514.2814.6845TT9.64-82.3619372.4765555382349.7210863797190.78781405437855914112126WETL
2020-01-18 16:00:10FORECAST2020111-17441.7632.6237.19133.518441333330.22310.493114.2814.7731TT9.76-82.2419372.494083302949.7348294084910.79147648004534914113129WETL
2020-01-18 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17441.9633.1237.54133.655347418210.14060.410614.2814.6906TT9.96-82.0419372.5724526575449.7963005983980.79749716808059914112126WETL
2020-01-18 08:00:10FORECAST2020111-17441.5234.4637.99133.868170327740.19220.672214.2814.9522TT9.52-79.4819372.6942250964249.8918940053720.78411436914258914113129WETL
2020-01-18 04:00:12FORECAST2020111-17441.8133.2737.54134.801362655950.21391.063914.2815.3439TT9.81-80.1919373.2274001177350.3115621164090.792991444302439141141212WETL
2020-01-18 00:00:12FORECAST2020111-17442.2732.3937.33138.487641189530.21781.167814.2815.4478TT10.27-83.7319375.3212251111251.9773511540040.806621567430749141141212WETL
2020-01-17 20:00:11FORECAST2020111-17441.5933.8537.72138.20651812440.19821.298214.2815.5782TT9.59-75.4119375.162235404751.8498662870480.786277034571079141141212WETL
2020-01-17 16:00:10FORECAST2020111-17441.7433.2537.495138.169325892270.15881.298814.2815.5788TT9.74-76.2619375.1411927595951.8330057180140.790868672194419141141212WETL
2020-01-17 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17441.0233.8637.44137.469154686040.18851.408514.2815.6885TT9.02-75.9819374.7446782474651.5158341417680.76830309546379141141212WETL
2020-01-17 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17440.8233.6637.24138.755886036110.16131.591314.2815.8713TT8.82-75.1819375.4728257070152.0990646134570.761802663687439141151215WETL
2020-01-17 04:00:11FORECAST2020111-17440.832.3336.565139.48178527960.1171.69714.2815.977TT8.8-79.219375.8825555468452.428769903130.761147178589529141151215WETL
2020-01-17 00:00:12FORECAST2020111-17440.533.3136.905140.239874719030.11141.651413.9315.5814TT8.5-84.519376.3096492835352.7736180710840.751197686705099141151215WETL
2020-01-16 20:00:11FORECAST2020111-17442.6233.1837.9140.699029388310.0781.69813.9815.678TT10.62-77.3819376.5679290247852.9827421125540.816616930434179141151215WETL
2020-01-16 16:00:11FORECAST2020111-17442.3833.137.74138.693904369690.11791.727913.9815.7079TT10.38-75.6219375.4378054768352.070935089570.809798127756349141151215WETL
2020-01-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17442.0933.4637.775139.425149610170.1451.84513.9815.825TT10.09-75.9119375.8506150187652.4030282300650.801354391693969141151215WETL
2020-01-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17436.2232.1634.19146.069881914120.13271.852714.0615.9127TT4.22-77.7819379.5668315117355.4432822574350.58923943650369131151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 04:00:13FORECAST2020111-17439.2231.3235.27147.317895199950.131.8214.2216.04TT7.22-80.7819380.2578417431856.0187848788820.706392035196989141151215WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020111-17439.2431.3635.3152.155065170910.07711.947114.0415.9871TT7.24-74.7619382.9155227940658.2625363256840.707119892507329141151215WETL
2020-01-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020111-17439.6931.3835.535149.689396874740.03211.682114.2115.8921TT7.69-76.3119381.5648936097257.1162187930140.723270983624229141151215WETL
2020-01-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020111-17439.4531.5235.485150.252874651310.1161.79614.2516.046TT7.45-76.5519381.8742982046357.3777110606990.714711383129189141151215WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17439.4731.5335.5151.641576574330.1161.90614.2416.146TT7.47-72.5319382.6349439830258.0233661580160.715429470643279141151215WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17439.3929.5334.46151.566454403320.10731.597314.3315.9273TT7.39-70.6119382.5938652710157.9883956355860.712551962346859141151215WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020111-17439.2529.6234.435150.187692794110.07531.565314.3115.8753TT7.25-71.7519381.8385296143857.3474477826810.707483507143789141151215WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020111-17439.3429.7934.565152.93127773690.24541.595414.1515.7454TT7.34-81.6619383.3389643103658.6245176183220.710746567223659141151215WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020111-17432.1627.829.98151.963398549140.19331.533314.3115.8433TT0.16-86.8419382.8108357284258.1732355987290.419257499828469121151210WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020111-17432.7229.8731.295154.146472834960.25091.860914.316.1609TT0.72-80.2819384.0002064296659.1922773890280.44252591801119121151210WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17432.7629.931.33155.193753299510.25091.790914.2916.0809TT0.76-85.2419384.5684435239559.6826201510320.444196551939419121151210WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17432.5628.1130.335157.21308972130.23921.909214.3716.2792TT0.56-82.4419385.659844153960.630775680870.435853887553999121151210WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020111-17432.6328.630.615156.846814222640.25791.787914.4916.2779TT0.63-80.3719385.4622968180360.4585332588490.438770770414649121151210WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020111-17432.6828.6330.655151.629212026560.25791.667914.3215.9879TT0.68-83.3219382.6281832729858.0176099288380.440856305407589121151210WETL
2020-01-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020111-17431.0724.6127.84150.592050044140.23221.522214.5716.0922TT-0.93-78.9319382.0603253911657.5352476411870.37483619965269121151210WETL
2020-01-13 16:00:10FORECAST2020111-17431.0622.9126.985150.748476491760.22431.544314.516.0443TT-0.94-78.9419382.146066461857.6079373164350.374435285040499121151210WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17432.7825.9629.37152.149799131710.0521.42214.5715.992TT0.78-83.2219382.9126471984558.2600823562340.44503224275121912114128WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17431.6222.8427.23156.736556801780.0062.14614.4916.636TT-0.38-89.3819385.4027944900460.4067069901520.397083486961989121151210WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020111-17431.6722.8527.26157.307027188980.0062.14614.5816.726TT-0.33-89.3319385.7104788619760.6749687854150.39912389055079121151210WETL
2020-01-13 00:00:12FORECAST2020111-17431.7122.8527.28151.793840504390.0062.14613.2315.376TT-0.29-99.2919382.7181817285858.094262635440.400758202585929121151210WETL
2020-01-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020111-17430.8125.6428.225156.197675942040.62792.887913.9616.8479TT-1.19-94.1919385.1117382237160.1535584885410.364457547910369121151210WETL
2020-01-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020111-17430.8727.6929.28159.239394686520.68993.319913.7117.0299TT-1.13-96.1319386.7493986166161.5857401310850.36684413912669121151210WETL
2020-01-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020111-17429.5627.7228.64163.452368801780.54853.178513.7516.9285TT-2.44-97.4419388.9968650780863.5824590534790.316050525289929121151210WETL
2020-01-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020111-17429.6828.4229.05155.750113601280.39053.020514.1717.1905TT-2.32-97.3219384.869701203159.9434996840720.32057910957159121151210WETL
2020-01-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020111-17430.1629.6429.9157.674798611510.13143.141414.5717.7114TT-1.84-97.8419385.9086009055360.8480609302270.338956075443569121151210WETL