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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 11, 2020

[ Friday, January 10, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 12, 2020 ]

DAY 103 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/12/2020 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.266
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 582

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 122 in
SWE DAY: 11
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -182

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-12 04:00:12OBSERVATION2020103-18225.9719.2500622.61003122.496474166671.233.0410.1513.19TT-6.03581.9711358.93940887867 43.9688120271040.2661144973469189 21451217.5WETL
2020-01-12 00:00:17FORECAST2020104-18224.3624.3624.36110.128770935860.02731.837310.1511.9873TT-7.64580.3611351.3135569294438.6897302377470.211715469576768911451215WETL
2020-01-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18227.5923.7225.655109.894895523290.51112.321110.1512.4711TT-4.41583.5911351.1670303266538.5914641089720.327197653363258921451217.5WETL
2020-01-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18227.5522.3524.95111.474026438230.93092.740910.1512.8909TT-4.45583.5511352.154692346839.2561014850120.325622486327358921451217.5WETL
2020-01-11 04:00:11FORECAST2020103-18227.6422.3825.01113.100402350691.5353.34510.1513.495TT-4.36583.6411353.1677709871839.9434169959450.329170942581958921451217.5WETL
2020-01-11 00:00:12FORECAST2020103-18227.9123.5925.75112.077404147261.97462.284610.1512.4346TT-4.09585.9111352.5310280824139.5107625088410.339907876070148921451217.5WETL
2020-01-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020103-18231.0624.5327.795108.570605647822.09293.602910.1513.7529TT-0.94594.0611350.3356981628838.0361589295960.472620472689338921451217.5WETL
2020-01-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.1623.1325.645109.507786382452.14713.657110.1513.8071TT-3.84591.1611350.9243090441938.4289442712190.349966797631878921451217.5WETL
2020-01-10 12:00:10FORECAST2020103-18228.7922.9925.89113.006175509992.23273.742710.1513.8927TT-3.21591.7911353.1091907015839.9035191786130.375772239827928921451217.5WETL
2020-01-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.524.426.45113.439474500782.15124.021210.1514.1712TT-3.5590.511353.3784542324340.0870661480250.363816349419918921451217.5WETL
2020-01-10 04:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.3324.626.465115.155969504142.07564.235610.1514.3856TT-3.67589.3311354.4422224166240.8161377555890.356868003131018921451217.5WETL
2020-01-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020103-18229.0524.6626.855116.396568579662.12033.860310.1514.0103TT-2.95591.0511355.2081800442341.3450132885740.386594027449788921451217.5WETL
2020-01-09 20:00:10FORECAST2020103-18228.4123.9726.19117.048693611391.95083.780810.1513.9308TT-3.59591.4111355.6098414403141.623667375940.360132067246598921451217.5WETL
2020-01-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020103-18231.7922.527.145116.183995002631.86623.626210.1513.7762TT-0.21595.7911355.0771063962241.2542767550850.504405380624818931451220WETL
2020-01-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18231.8824.228.04116.360059640741.7723.59210.1513.742TT-0.12595.8811355.1856735317941.3294261556960.508326218163418931451220WETL
2020-01-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18231.422.5226.96115.063333913581.41333.073310.1513.2233TT-0.6592.411354.3849314250440.7767116985010.487415030424018921451217.5WETL
2020-01-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020103-18228.7921.6425.215116.143556422111.60423.204210.1513.3542TT-3.21586.7911355.052163805941.2370210197820.375772239827928921451217.5WETL
2020-01-09 00:00:12FORECAST2020103-18228.8621.4525.155115.038849420321.68523.36529.8713.2352TT-3.14577.8611354.3697866027640.7662925201050.378676599855358921451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.3220.6724.995114.472059617461.73923.559210.0913.6492TT-2.68589.3211354.018936791840.5252768381420.397926017149368921451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.3421.1624.75116.517407931121.9323.80210.0913.892TT-3.66584.3411355.2826584879441.3966144498940.357275444610118921451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.1721.1324.65117.56517919071.97083.870810.0913.9608TT-3.83586.1711355.9274870465341.8446787935210.350371409208058921451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.2720.7425.005121.351580816271.92963.979610.1314.1096TT-2.73590.2711358.2434931423643.4734142099690.395820680584898921451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 04:00:11FORECAST2020103-18227.6922.4925.09124.272326169261.99024.100210.2114.3102TT-4.31586.6911360.014852529244.7398831792880.331148999401038921451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 00:00:12FORECAST2020103-18230.2622.4926.375118.971344803882.23454.06458.5112.5745TT-1.74588.2611356.7901891944742.4478086212970.437994248535698921451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 20:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.4723.2426.355115.065741264421.94623.84629.3913.2362TT-2.53593.4711354.3864204350540.7777361614050.404259646458498921451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 16:00:10FORECAST2020103-18229.6422.2625.95116.122791011261.91874.01879.3713.3887TT-2.36594.6411355.0393546669641.2281607827630.411468123496378921451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.6822.2925.985118.13137900721.91873.86879.4813.3487TT-2.32598.6811356.2752291071842.0872841205360.413168683894568921451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.7920.2725.03122.165123981222.00914.37919.7614.1391TT-2.21592.7911358.7382079463243.8252976505620.417853538826038921451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 04:00:12FORECAST2020103-18226.9819.3223.15120.43702221451.57913.78911013.7891TT-5.02585.9811357.6861290241343.0786522670960.303524927486428921451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 00:00:13FORECAST2020103-1822719.3323.165102.854290721631.57913.88917.0310.9191TT-559211346.7149813759235.6611234919820.30428886921988921451217.5WETL
2020-01-06 20:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.7118.6624.185100.353388666081.86933.76939.6813.4493TT-2.29593.7111345.1143023801734.6333897209790.414445175857588921451217.5WETL
2020-01-06 16:00:10FORECAST2020103-18226.8520.3323.5997.5376033837461.27973.44979.6613.1097TT-5.15597.8511343.2998744070333.4846469916030.298580313353878921451217.5WETL
2020-01-06 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18226.8820.3623.62100.99204048151.27973.41979.813.2197TT-5.12600.8811345.5240327565434.8951771034790.299718126461318921551220WETL
2020-01-06 08:00:10FORECAST2020103-18230.4919.725.095105.900328135921.93814.218110.4814.6981TT-1.51605.4911348.6508849092236.9222431167640.447912585691068921551220WETL
2020-01-06 04:00:11FORECAST2020103-18230.9120.2325.57109.251034424612.03674.386711.0615.4467TT-1.09607.9111350.7631913232838.3212414901450.466104240896748921551220WETL
2020-01-06 00:00:13FORECAST2020103-18230.9520.2525.6107.592449283232.03674.406710.4814.8867TT-1.05610.9511349.7198556864537.6272158362830.467841087099358921551220WETL
2020-01-05 20:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.1219.4523.785108.844057886291.65555.075510.8515.9255TT-3.88612.1211350.5075888727738.150668292850.348350057294638921551220WETL
2020-01-05 16:00:11FORECAST2020103-18227.1620.9824.07106.104879579731.41684.446810.4714.9168TT-4.84610.1611348.7803513100437.0072971755280.310430930036558921551220WETL
2020-01-05 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18227.0421.0624.05109.947347306031.41684.446810.7115.1568TT-4.96613.0411351.1998997607138.6134973528350.305819312854088921551220WETL
2020-01-05 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18224.0914.6519.37112.789715416971.3684.27811.3215.598TT-7.91618.0911352.9745655949239.8119008028780.203274509132758911551217.5WETL
2020-01-05 04:00:12FORECAST2020103-18230.621.1125.855114.647864094581.82724.227211.3415.5672TT-1.4617.611354.1278159526740.5999977154530.452668066834218921551220WETL
2020-01-05 00:00:12FORECAST2020103-18230.621.125.85108.471455766631.82724.227210.0814.3072TT-1.4615.611350.2733435448637.9946594905560.452668066834218921551220WETL
2020-01-04 20:00:10FORECAST2020103-18229.4820.3624.9298.8154016346811.0442.44410.3212.764TT-2.52603.4811344.124866973534.0048369424680.404682801732718921551220WETL
2020-01-04 16:00:10FORECAST2020103-18228.9423.7526.34596.2024152275650.66052.30059.9512.2505TT-3.06603.9411342.4349633723932.9430705347870.382004266598348921551220WETL
2020-01-04 12:00:11FORECAST2020103-18228.9525.2727.1189.8784371259690.43582.07589.9812.0558TT-3.05603.9511338.2983185956630.4057241577210.382420844027038921551220WETL
2020-01-04 08:00:11FORECAST2020103-18229.3727.7628.56587.6266028694290.37391.95399.4711.4239TT-2.63606.3711336.8092310221729.5134487295380.400034329497318921551220WETL
2020-01-04 04:00:12FORECAST2020103-18227.4526.9127.1885.9350346387480.19851.65859.6711.3285TT-4.55608.4511335.6850193778328.8471037679420.321698206580188921551220WETL