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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 9, 2020

[ Wednesday, January 8, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, January 10, 2020 ]

DAY 101 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/10/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.152
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 588

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 102 in
SWE DAY: 9
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -184

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-10 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020101-18423.8116.7500420.28002102.171711666670.240000000000012.488.1410.62TT-8.19587.819344.35950740446 35.1838003002030.151580844812787 11451215WETL
2020-01-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020102-18422.6322.6322.63104.036908189490.00732.24738.1410.3873TT-9.37586.639345.5578397806335.9507692514160.121333526303798711451215WETL
2020-01-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18428.5920.224.395104.322004671780.07712.31718.1410.4571TT-3.41592.599345.7405059642536.0683426784250.319766163818868721451217.5WETL
2020-01-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020101-18426.7118.3622.535104.362939320690.08812.32818.1410.4681TT-5.29590.719345.7667226346136.0852314934310.245387456659038711451215WETL
2020-01-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020101-18423.618.3120.955104.489308885450.11282.35288.1410.4928TT-8.4587.69345.847639057936.1373807848240.145861116625088711451215WETL
2020-01-09 00:00:12FORECAST2020101-18423.5718.2420.905102.715074706740.1442.1048.1410.244TT-8.43578.579344.7091879579335.4068299931990.145055978574038711451215WETL
2020-01-08 20:00:10FORECAST2020101-18427.1916.5121.85101.728998344830.15892.33898.1410.4789TT-4.81586.199344.0742428312835.0023280794830.263458777134178721451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020101-18427.1517.6322.39101.729451252720.1552.3358.1410.475TT-4.85586.159344.0745348287235.0025136181610.26192733803648721451217.5WETL
2020-01-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18425.2420.6722.955102.704496466820.18192.36198.1410.5019TT-6.76584.249344.7023849511235.4024848773180.194426637709948711451215WETL
2020-01-08 08:00:11FORECAST2020101-18426.5119.8623.185103.323770451740.16992.38998.1410.5299TT-5.49586.519345.1003405736935.6570683722540.238058888411418711451215WETL
2020-01-08 04:00:11FORECAST2020101-18426.4219.7323.075103.447422574950.17612.47618.1410.6161TT-5.58589.429345.1797265115935.7079530327520.234800527308088711451215WETL
2020-01-08 00:00:12FORECAST2020101-18426.2420.1823.2198.7995988553820.17390.77398.148.9139TT-5.76587.249342.1785641225533.8071048722190.22835826655357871143129WETL
2020-01-07 20:00:11FORECAST2020101-18426.2819.6722.97595.6097876919460.1681.6488.149.788TT-5.72594.289340.098262223532.5167226455890.22978125067288711451215WETL
2020-01-07 16:00:10FORECAST2020101-18427.0120.0223.51595.4844116889510.1671.6278.149.767TT-4.99595.019340.0161508851332.4662421320090.256603430954078721451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18426.6420.123.3798.5847966871010.15581.72588.149.8658TT-5.36594.649342.0390050764733.7198457745220.242808771705948711451215WETL
2020-01-07 08:00:11FORECAST2020101-18427.520.1623.8399.2231523958290.19522.04528.1410.1852TT-4.5593.59342.4535279570333.979318592970.275480169435278721451217.5WETL
2020-01-07 04:00:11FORECAST2020101-18423.4520.5121.9899.6300360480880.21622.30628.1410.4462TT-8.55590.459342.7173915475834.1449460741920.141865298653668711451215WETL
2020-01-07 00:00:13FORECAST2020101-18426.2519.923.07581.386618875540.26752.50755.027.5275TT-5.75596.259330.6144185952126.9075896809670.228713548394128711451215WETL
2020-01-06 20:00:11FORECAST2020101-1842217.6319.81579.1661626707830.17122.84127.2410.0812TT-105939329.1026798741626.0537962903080.107042821427238711451215WETL
2020-01-06 16:00:10FORECAST2020101-18425.9218.0321.97579.2683173961140.19592.84597.2410.0859TT-6.08596.929329.1724164740626.0929435871120.217153976805288711451215WETL
2020-01-06 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18428.2921.1424.71582.3585082079740.1732.9637.2410.203TT-3.71600.299331.273425741827.283185153040.307280816665828721551220WETL
2020-01-06 08:00:10FORECAST2020101-18427.1721.8324.583.4165609445450.18552.91557.9810.8955TT-4.83601.179331.9890104011127.6933815190430.262692487401488721551220WETL
2020-01-06 04:00:11FORECAST2020101-18429.6219.624.6186.0258561402020.17353.01358.4511.4635TT-2.38601.629333.7455374632628.7107455932490.364132736176698721551220WETL
2020-01-06 00:00:13FORECAST2020101-18429.6620.5225.0983.8316102560120.18842.94847.9510.8984TT-2.34604.669332.2691927672827.8546614681460.365897808349658721551220WETL
2020-01-05 20:00:11FORECAST2020101-18432.2722.3327.384.3863342524260.55263.35268.2811.6326TT0.27607.279332.6432027442928.0705404935770.485506117558648721551220WETL
2020-01-05 16:00:11FORECAST2020101-18433.1423.228.1784.3724498482160.56023.11028.1511.2602TT1.14607.149332.6338479305528.0651326523390.526229078414788731551222.5WETL
2020-01-05 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18433.1323.7228.42587.6504186960960.56023.28028.2211.5002TT1.13610.139334.8332957030329.3482785617650.525761738840458731551222.5WETL
2020-01-05 08:00:11FORECAST2020101-18432.8824.1428.5187.8748261809580.27973.19978.6311.8297TT0.88617.889334.9831996858729.4365904459370.514068396919948731551222.5WETL
2020-01-05 04:00:12FORECAST2020101-18431.1623.9127.53588.52275089520.34863.21868.711.9186TT-0.84612.169335.4155335796229.6919057254490.433824255566348721551220WETL
2020-01-05 00:00:12FORECAST2020101-18431.1822.1626.6781.2688392177910.34863.05867.610.6586TT-0.82610.189330.5344453904826.8621506983810.434748188333728721551220WETL
2020-01-04 20:00:10FORECAST2020101-18426.5222.9624.7482.2988615391730.27533.26537.5610.8253TT-5.48598.529331.233028078827.2601011150590.238422449618668711451215WETL
2020-01-04 16:00:10FORECAST2020101-18425.0123.3724.1980.4467916862740.20112.85117.5310.3811TT-6.99600.019329.9756026883226.545478571020.187078921772868711551217.5WETL
2020-01-04 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18425.0423.3824.2177.4563408742750.20112.99117.4210.4111TT-6.96600.049327.9327686689425.4004723138660.188027481366878711551217.5WETL
2020-01-04 08:00:11FORECAST2020101-18428.8721.225.03576.1786295495110.1592.9996.869.859TT-3.13603.879327.0551973304724.914616719680.331606587471228721551220WETL
2020-01-04 04:00:11FORECAST2020101-18428.2620.1224.1975.345681481020.13892.85897.1810.0389TT-3.74607.269326.4815676093324.5989762025170.306044153557228721551220WETL
2020-01-04 00:00:13FORECAST2020101-18428.2720.1324.276.9059859097990.13892.77897.099.8689TT-3.73606.279327.5551171433325.1909492237080.306456130185358721551220WETL
2020-01-03 20:00:11FORECAST2020101-18431.6123.3827.49577.2604576983880.34232.77237.2510.0223TT-0.39620.619327.798414870125.325855565670.454690717954078721551220WETL
2020-01-03 16:00:11FORECAST2020101-18432.2123.7227.96576.2782780915740.36832.578379.5783TT0.21614.219327.1237414514624.952435720790.482698349602318721551220WETL
2020-01-03 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18432.2223.7327.97573.6985393378350.38112.59116.69.1911TT0.22619.229325.3436444456223.977351378490.483166255111328721551220WETL
2020-01-03 08:00:12FORECAST2020101-18432.0622.5727.31582.2145992908860.69693.31696.239.5469TT0.060000000000002616.069331.175948275927.2274978822820.475682986617828721551220WETL
2020-01-03 04:00:12FORECAST2020101-18432.242428.1282.9690604533150.73463.03466.699.7246TT0.24609.249331.6865905025827.5197247789620.48410213504138721551220WETL
2020-01-03 00:00:14FORECAST2020101-18432.2724.0128.1480.5888839470720.73463.03466.049.0746TT0.27615.279330.0722829982926.6001569086940.485506117558648721551220WETL
2020-01-02 20:00:11FORECAST2020101-18430.5923.7327.1683.7619020026790.98272.62276.999.6127TT-1.41610.599332.2221562878927.8275596981050.407662988060628721551220WETL
2020-01-02 16:00:11FORECAST2020101-18431.5123.8727.6980.8779626852180.83972.50976.739.2397TT-0.49621.519330.2688659960626.7114730201190.450040826694348721551220WETL
2020-01-02 12:00:11FORECAST2020101-18429.4123.8726.6482.9962460325130.7122.3826.859.232TT-2.59617.419331.7049722688727.5302674886350.354914080710148721551220WETL
2020-01-02 08:00:11FORECAST2020101-1842926.327.6578.1911504337380.22841.13847.959.0884TT-36179328.436169980525.6808019748260.337162547553338721541216WETL
2020-01-02 04:00:13FORECAST2020101-18423.5323.2523.3977.8911523080130.1250.9157.718.625TT-8.47606.539328.2307615746825.5662722419880.143987109671038711531210.5WETL