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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 18, 2019

[ Tuesday, December 17, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 19, 2019 ]

DAY 79 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/19/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.453
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 51

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.40 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 37 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 304.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 159

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-19 04:01:13OBSERVATION20207915932.7799425.4899429.1349437.150516250.330000000000040.400000000000045.165.56TF0.7799450.7799414304.45876999376 11.3108004821080.4533546176233292 2212125WETL
2019-12-19 00:00:13FORECAST20208016029.6429.6429.64370.04790.11795.165.2779TF-2.3647.6414304.3465626552811.2608228182450.31442972751724922112124WETL
2019-12-18 12:00:11FORECAST20207915938.1428.333.2237.9194483142550.23580.30585.165.4658TF6.1456.1414305.0313270663911.5666196409230.6942151384918923212126WETL
2019-12-18 08:00:12FORECAST20207915938.1126.0832.09538.2179068812820.30180.37185.165.5318TF6.1156.1114305.2532622106411.6661407503740.69298723631907923212126WETL
2019-12-18 04:00:12FORECAST20207915932.4728.2530.3637.885640996430.4220.4925.165.652TF0.4750.4714305.0061771816511.5553545303970.43906848104532922213127.5WETL
2019-12-18 00:00:12FORECAST20207915936.3728.4232.39549.9363680.38870.45875.165.6187TF4.3749.3714313.8355022037515.6718051295110.61845847969294923212126WETL
2019-12-17 20:00:11FORECAST20207915936.4426.1831.3149.9297114836830.38850.45855.165.6185TF4.4458.4414313.8306993280415.6694762721720.62156636536391923212126WETL
2019-12-17 16:00:10FORECAST20207915936.1927.6831.93549.932760.49010.56015.165.7201TF4.1958.1914313.8328989338715.6705428225690.61043208466554923213129WETL
2019-12-17 12:00:11FORECAST20207915930.7227.6829.250.5109422768960.77180.84185.166.0018TF-1.2852.7214314.2497688656415.87305193570.36039845915115922213127.5WETL
2019-12-17 08:00:11FORECAST20207915931.1228.5529.83550.3248935534680.68060.77065.165.9306TF-0.8854.1214314.1156943697215.807838882630.37799505303812922213127.5WETL
2019-12-17 04:00:12FORECAST20207915931.5327.6629.59550.2971878558680.87910.95915.166.1191TF-0.4748.5314314.0957230639415.7981315876720.39629773428753922213127.5WETL
2019-12-17 00:00:13FORECAST20207915933.7328.0930.9161.3615929933950.6870.6975.165.857TF1.7351.7314321.9606084387419.7560158149240.49744395777113922213127.5WETL
2019-12-16 20:00:10FORECAST20207915932.9726.9229.94562.0939454126780.75690.81695.165.9769TF0.9758.9714322.4734269224720.0236473683630.46214626254707922213127.5WETL
2019-12-16 16:00:10FORECAST20207915933.327.0630.1862.2934869273290.77390.82395.165.9839TF1.359.314322.612987502720.0966879195860.47745266418939922213127.5WETL
2019-12-16 12:00:11FORECAST20207915934.9626.8930.92562.1160907310740.76910.81915.165.9791TF2.9660.9614322.4889189860120.0317509515010.55449210556912923213129WETL
2019-12-16 08:00:11FORECAST20207915934.4227.4530.93562.60224038960.78950.83955.165.9995TF2.4260.4214322.8287922492520.2098056570720.52951527056673923213129WETL
2019-12-16 04:00:12FORECAST2020791593328.0630.5360.7169078852860.84840.88845.166.0484TF15514321.5083874819819.520995147090.46353578228428922213127.5WETL
2019-12-16 00:00:12FORECAST20207915933.2128.4530.8351.6601707262840.87590.91595.075.9859TF1.2156.2114315.076548022616.2769082626960.47327393366195922213127.5WETL
2019-12-15 20:00:11FORECAST20207915934.4127.3530.8851.5835283337670.8630.9235.096.013TF2.4165.4114315.0214849474816.2499196945340.52905133148686923213129WETL
2019-12-15 16:00:11FORECAST20207915934.7827.0230.951.6015981687670.70430.73435.095.8243TF2.7866.7814315.0344680324816.2562820287230.54618553748872923213129WETL
2019-12-15 12:00:11FORECAST20207915934.4626.9830.7251.8298039912760.61880.64885.095.7388TF2.4666.4614315.1983814881816.33667033090.53137062003471923213129WETL
2019-12-15 08:00:11FORECAST20207915934.0128.1231.06551.9383822209710.54980.59985.115.7098TF2.0167.0114315.2763366509316.3749428782040.51046813893525923213129WETL
2019-12-15 04:00:12FORECAST20207915935.3927.6631.52551.5257666719440.69780.74785.125.8678TF3.3963.3914314.9799794886916.2295849294680.57423234422486923213129WETL
2019-12-15 00:00:13FORECAST20207915935.427.6631.5349.901853998150.76220.81224.745.5522TF3.460.414313.8105984375615.6597306663030.57468941101117923213129WETL
2019-12-14 20:00:11FORECAST20207915935.4128.131.75549.8151204761831.01681.02684.835.8568TF3.4166.4114313.7480057542815.6293947058110.575146377449919232141212WETL
2019-12-14 16:00:11FORECAST20207915936.2928.1732.2349.784686558230.7590.8194.835.649TF4.2967.2914313.7260393447315.6187525339320.61489724957217923213129WETL
2019-12-14 12:00:11FORECAST20207915936.3128.1732.2450.3278669273290.7590.8994.835.729TF4.3167.3114314.1178376055915.8088807305150.61578847887911923213129WETL
2019-12-14 08:00:11FORECAST20207915933.0128.6430.82550.7326095592141.15931.37934.916.2893TT1.0164.0114314.4094288930415.9508107977660.463999055244189222141210WETL
2019-12-14 04:00:12FORECAST20207915932.4628.1430.350.6033255666460.6430.9234.875.793TF0.4664.4614314.3163205924315.9054511018490.43860876558113922213127.5WETL
2019-12-14 00:00:13FORECAST20207915932.4628.1430.325.5591335720930.6430.9534.044.993TF0.4665.4614295.690800015167.55760065362670.438608765581139222132215WETL
2019-12-13 20:00:11FORECAST20207915936.8227.7532.28525.5312850372510.62870.91874.115.0287TF4.8267.8214295.669422407177.54882030027680.638296167499719232132218WETL
2019-12-13 16:00:11FORECAST20207915937.2928.5432.91525.7121644136910.6320.9224.165.082TF5.2970.2914295.808245401937.60587024069970.658625365040589232132218WETL
2019-12-13 12:00:12FORECAST20207915937.328.5432.9226.4138674232880.6320.9224.275.192TF5.369.314296.346191742927.82764902009370.659053190713089232132218WETL
2019-12-13 08:00:12FORECAST20207915938.0129.6333.8225.7411091130990.38760.39764.24.5976TF6.0164.0114295.830454231317.61500400134560.688878645715569232122212WETL
2019-12-13 04:00:12FORECAST20207915936.9629.1833.0726.9160767968610.43230.44234.444.8823TF4.9667.9614296.730612104047.98682394337180.644395704748839232122212WETL
2019-12-13 00:00:13FORECAST20207915936.9629.1833.0730.6963868482730.43230.44233.153.5923TF4.9663.9614299.608597509189.19690141221010.644395704748839232122212DRYL
2019-12-12 20:00:12FORECAST20207915938.3128.133.20528.8823363253610.00030.00034.424.4203TF6.3168.3114298.23099234528.61360782356020.70113179489586924211227WETL
2019-12-12 16:00:11FORECAST20207915939.0227.8133.41529.1149052048140.00080.01084.494.5008TF7.0269.0214298.407962030568.68811952688150.72922041310947924211227WETL
2019-12-12 12:00:11FORECAST20207915939.0427.8133.42529.6489901090780.00080.01084.424.4308TF7.0465.0414298.813970186038.85953244649970.72999217860691924211227WETL
2019-12-12 08:00:11FORECAST20207915937.3923.8730.6330.79997350749300.024.454.47TF5.3965.3914299.687070670229.23035383718110.66289437005237923211226WETL
2019-12-12 04:00:12FORECAST20207915938.4923.5831.03530.932054581995004.614.61TF6.4969.4914299.787100131759.27303094425340.70837690013762924211227WETL
2019-12-12 00:00:13FORECAST20207915938.4923.5831.03516.979219570398004.874.87TF6.4972.4914289.032471597254.90754579822470.708376900137629242113210.5WETL
2019-12-11 20:00:11FORECAST20207915934.424.8729.63518.6625118654330.53430.57435.345.9143TF2.476.414290.350234900275.41866470395760.528587352976359232132218WETL
2019-12-11 16:00:12FORECAST20207915928.7927.4128.117.8622594521790.56180.75185.326.0718TF-3.2174.7914289.724460826715.17513348892930.280129895618389222132215WETL
2019-12-11 12:00:11FORECAST20207915928.7927.4128.116.8959748806970.39260.58265.375.9526TF-3.2174.7914288.967157275254.8823818306690.280129895618389222133222.5WETL
2019-12-11 08:00:11FORECAST20207915926.4723.9425.20517.7379334584590.01390.05395.75.7539TF-5.5359.4714289.627127314565.13738671207020.19681652269861921211224WETL
2019-12-11 04:00:12FORECAST20207915927.0125.6626.33518.21127611175900.35.756.05TF-4.9964.0114289.997538096015.2812252379970.21474742730786921212228WETL