Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 17, 2019

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DAY 78 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/18/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.26°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.41°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.484 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 44 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.16 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.07 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.23 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 38 in SWE DAY: 15 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.10 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 11.59 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 158 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-18 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	78	158	34.55006	30.25994	32.405	37.867378333333	0	0.16	5.07	5.23	T	F	2.55006	43.55006	15	306.10352639401	11.591338043129	0.48388516623421	92	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2019-12-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	79	159	30.11	30.11	30.11	50	0.0016	0.1616	5.07	5.2316	T	F	-1.89	39.11	15	314.95863311855	15.747931655927	0.27443359027882	92	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2019-12-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.47	30.93	35.2	49.829057333333	0.0048	0.1648	5.07	5.2348	T	F	7.47	48.47	15	314.83575489448	15.68796888122	0.71872812669336	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.99	30.34	35.165	49.798225333333	0.0178	0.1778	5.07	5.2478	T	F	7.99	48.99	15	314.81358633696	15.677157910403	0.74038981572599	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	34.03	28.88	31.455	49.488048666667	0.0107	0.1707	5.07	5.2407	T	F	2.03	43.03	15	314.59046918479	15.568468449086	0.45783693007706	92	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2019-12-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.25	29.3	33.775	60.78434	0.0087	0.0987	5.07	5.1687	T	F	6.25	44.25	15	322.6038386836	19.609261415849	0.66474573703013	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-16 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.16	31.6	35.38	60.754492	0.007	0.147	5.07	5.217	T	F	7.16	52.16	15	322.58296661126	19.59836426432	0.7054126508689	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.11	31.54	35.325	60.743012	0.0036	0.1436	5.07	5.2136	T	F	7.11	52.11	15	322.57493846977	19.594173358369	0.70323807727824	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.31	31.54	35.425	60.64928145804	0.0018	0.1418	5.07	5.2118	T	F	7.31	52.31	15	322.50938249367	19.559962311717	0.71189188988615	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.03	30.55	34.79	60.778481272594	0.0016	0.1416	5.07	5.2116	T	F	7.03	52.03	15	322.59974192479	19.60712237312	0.6997435756715	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.17	30.3	34.735	60.725763885286	0.004	0.134	5.07	5.204	T	F	7.17	48.17	15	322.56287615641	19.587877055633	0.70584668271138	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.33	31.54	35.435	51.673290726284	0.0035	0.0435	5.07	5.1135	T	F	7.33	49.33	15	316.15862687021	16.336956641887	0.71275068760111	92	4	2	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	40.17	32.37	36.27	51.645356333767	0.0235	0.0835	5.07	5.1535	T	F	8.17	57.17	15	316.13863566477	16.327092489778	0.74768251474008	92	4	2	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	40.45	32.53	36.49	51.538102167568	0.0007	0.0507	5.07	5.1207	T	F	8.45	58.45	15	316.06186620456	16.289228751723	0.75880872167316	92	4	2	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	40.21	32.23	36.22	51.566021467165	0	0.05	5.07	5.12	T	F	8.21	58.21	15	316.08185205307	16.29908356835	0.74928834311551	92	4	2	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.89	31.23	35.56	51.729961053226	0.0004	0.0904	5.07	5.1604	T	F	7.89	58.89	15	316.19917854593	16.356971191243	0.73629186422241	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.99	31.39	35.69	51.580433338611	0.0014	0.1014	5.07	5.1714	T	F	7.99	53.99	15	316.09216814263	16.304171007738	0.74038981572599	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.88	31.38	35.63	49.95236599815	0.0012	0.1112	4.68	4.7912	T	F	7.88	50.88	15	314.92439786836	15.731218784067	0.73588026427083	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.97	29.1	34.535	49.862079142849	0.0048	0.0548	4.79	4.8448	T	F	7.97	56.97	15	314.85949602452	15.699549109652	0.73957285982681	92	4	2	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.57	30.91	35.24	49.864827891564	0.0109	0.1009	4.79	4.8909	T	F	7.57	56.57	15	314.86147215596	15.700513118741	0.72296067120867	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.45	30.2	34.325	50.408336260662	0.0097	0.1797	4.79	4.9697	T	F	6.45	57.45	15	315.25194044501	15.891325820778	0.67387284034648	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	33.57	29.32	31.445	50.549046076029	0.092	0.252	4.88	5.132	T	F	1.57	56.57	15	315.35294163981	15.940790377162	0.43494334340315	92	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2019-12-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.65	28.51	33.08	50.615461566646	0.1168	0.2968	4.85	5.1468	T	F	5.65	57.65	15	315.40060199348	15.964147048298	0.63679451681807	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.67	29.15	33.41	25.571433572093	0.1222	0.3322	4.02	4.3522	T	F	5.67	58.67	15	296.84642144869	7.5907885471888	0.63773906101199	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.53	29.27	33.4	25.632035703918	0.1621	0.3021	4.1	4.4021	T	F	5.53	56.53	15	296.89275888343	7.6099657959347	0.63110995893933	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	36.62	28.27	32.445	25.829588413691	0.1625	0.3225	4.13	4.4525	T	F	4.62	58.62	15	297.04376157711	7.6725181023911	0.58714909840868	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	36.62	28.27	32.445	26.531400756621	0.1625	0.3325	4.23	4.5625	T	F	4.62	57.62	15	297.57959118818	7.8952033908051	0.58714909840868	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.96	26.65	32.305	25.863453113099	0.0107	0.0207	4.19	4.2107	T	F	5.96	51.96	15	297.06963901559	7.6832466800049	0.65133821859412	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.67	26.62	32.145	26.683672731881	0.011	0.021	4.43	4.451	T	F	5.67	56.67	15	297.69572389829	7.9436152701822	0.63773906101199	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.67	26.62	32.145	30.456379302053	0.011	0.031	3.13	3.161	F	F	5.67	52.67	15	300.55874421137	9.1539311162503	0.63773906101199	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2019-12-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.25	25.65	31.95	29.012442992027	0.0018	0.0618	4.36	4.4218	T	F	6.25	56.25	15	299.46621369185	8.6882464527732	0.66474573703013	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.48	26.8	32.64	29.24755036395	0.0018	0.0718	4.43	4.5018	T	F	6.48	56.48	15	299.64437700673	8.7638640077788	0.67523314155991	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.48	26.81	32.645	29.781594040032	0.0018	0.0718	4.36	4.4318	T	F	6.48	52.48	15	300.04867781805	8.9359279150255	0.67523314155991	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.88	24.02	30.95	30.868525507493	0.0009	0.0809	4.39	4.4709	T	F	5.88	53.88	15	300.86985343895	9.287408745316	0.64760521777465	92	3	2	1	1	2	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.75	24.33	32.04	31.034827915328	0.0009	0.0809	4.53	4.6109	T	F	7.75	56.75	15	300.99529488792	9.34133718017	0.73049988920176	92	4	2	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	78	158	39.75	24.33	32.04	17.081992903732	0.0009	0.0909	4.78	4.8709	T	F	7.75	59.75	15	290.28425281279	4.9586335466132	0.73049988920176	92	4	2	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M
2019-12-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	36.97	24.31	30.64	18.222602521642	0.0034	0.1434	5.24	5.3834	T	F	4.97	67.97	15	291.17417155584	5.3059511928305	0.60422001141557	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.5	28.13	33.315	17.289389181454	0.042	0.202	5.31	5.512	T	F	6.5	71.5	15	290.44625797475	5.0216383904226	0.67613871486547	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.49	28.13	33.31	16.895974880697	0.042	0.202	5.36	5.562	T	F	6.49	72.49	15	290.13887440509	4.9021791338621	0.67568605800887	92	3	2	1	2	3	2	18	WET	M
2019-12-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	38.36	23.85	31.105	17.737933458459	0.0006	0.1106	5.63	5.7406	T	F	6.36	59.36	15	290.79634131721	5.1581261522478	0.66977810393769	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.41	24.38	30.895	18.211276111759	0.0473	0.2973	5.75	6.0473	T	F	5.41	63.41	15	291.16534720867	5.3024925321934	0.62539658563825	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	78	158	35.87	25.72	30.795	14.96090206835	0.2505	0.5005	4.93	5.4305	T	F	3.87	60.87	15	288.62247877663	4.3180526397016	0.55004944687098	92	3	2	1	3	3	2	27	WET	L
2019-12-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	36.44	26.74	31.59	14.97786693719	0.0846	0.1346	5.49	5.6246	T	F	4.44	67.44	15	288.63580549506	4.3231486880136	0.57830296748517	92	3	2	1	2	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-12-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	37.11	29.89	33.5	14.92754980363	0.0148	0.0148	5.34	5.3548	T	F	5.11	70.11	15	288.59627729819	4.3080353025109	0.61099476340303	92	3	2	1	1	3	2	9	WET	M
2019-12-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	78	158	34.4	29.89	32.145	14.546285957467	0.0036	0.0036	5.52	5.5236	T	F	2.4	66.4	15	288.29659934557	4.1936447746459	0.47635711376272	92	2	2	1	1	3	2	7.5	WET	M
2019-12-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	34.23	32.45	33.34	16.341597666466	0.0023	1.1723	5.21	6.3823	T	T	2.23	69.23	15	289.70520512911	4.7342459041008	0.46783905905206	92	2	2	1	4	3	2	30	WET	H
2019-12-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	32.96	32.48	32.72	15.766944187294	0.0493	1.3993	5.65	7.0493	T	T	0.96	61.96	15	289.25502943006	4.5606679049179	0.40493005536029	92	2	2	1	4	3	2	30	WET	H