Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 16, 2019

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DAY 77 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/17/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.42°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.31°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.451 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 39 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.68 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.23 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 39 in SWE DAY: 16 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.70 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 12.43 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 157 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-17 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	77	157	32.41994	18.30992	25.36493	49.540583333333	0.069999999999993	0.54999999999999	4.68	5.23	T	F	0.41994	39.41994	16	315.70266087164	15.640093979466	0.45089248128481	92	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2019-12-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	78	158	28.59	28.59	28.59	61	0.0019	0.4819	4.68	5.1619	T	F	-3.41	35.59	16	323.79816661999	19.751688163819	0.26841684084374	92	2	2	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2019-12-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.35	27.65	32	60.928682791373	0.0505	0.5305	4.68	5.2105	T	F	4.35	43.35	16	323.74850975137	19.725570254821	0.64939906235262	92	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.97	19.36	27.665	60.997585272594	0.0498	0.5298	4.68	5.2098	T	F	3.97	42.97	16	323.79648543656	19.750803731383	0.6310613259494	92	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-16 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	31.53	20.48	26.005	60.926281218619	0.0434	0.5234	4.68	5.2034	T	F	-0.47	38.53	16	323.7468374236	19.724690860509	0.4058483452662	92	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2019-12-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.77	21.49	29.13	51.948154726284	0.0444	0.4344	4.68	5.1144	T	F	4.77	39.77	16	317.42309708921	16.489544161287	0.66926824841874	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.23	21.43	28.83	51.973957667101	0.039	0.449	4.68	5.129	T	F	4.23	47.23	16	317.44147879431	16.498689980637	0.6436433237595	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.54	20.19	28.365	51.896660834235	0.0348	0.4448	4.68	5.1248	T	F	4.54	47.54	16	317.38640985772	16.471294865782	0.65844216294987	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	37.01	21.96	29.485	51.895388133832	0.0305	0.4405	4.68	5.1205	T	F	5.01	48.01	16	317.38550305147	16.470843868907	0.68041599582795	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	37.83	21.61	29.72	51.984434386559	0.0476	0.4776	4.68	5.1576	T	F	5.83	48.83	16	317.44894193954	16.502403693339	0.71724474080328	92	4	2	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2019-12-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	37.3	21.37	29.335	51.821130671944	0.0495	0.4895	4.68	5.1695	T	F	5.3	44.3	16	317.33258911327	16.444533566905	0.69367121669757	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.96	20.98	28.97	50.178904664817	0.0494	0.1094	4.68	4.7894	T	F	4.96	40.96	16	316.15982691795	15.864553813761	0.67810651393289	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.9	21.82	29.36	50.047180476183	0.007	0.157	4.68	4.837	T	F	4.9	46.9	16	316.06554667762	15.818189456878	0.67532604074183	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.81	21.9	29.355	50.079941224897	0.0476	0.1976	4.68	4.8776	T	F	4.81	46.81	16	316.08899779547	15.829718431434	0.67113700192609	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.81	23.31	30.06	50.561785593996	0.1294	0.2794	4.68	4.9594	T	F	4.81	48.81	16	316.43369099327	15.999452438718	0.67113700192609	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.31	22.9	29.605	50.574770712561	0.133	0.363	4.68	5.043	T	F	4.31	53.31	16	316.4429742186	16.004030864706	0.64748421108678	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.74	23.3	30.02	50.723264233313	0.1605	0.3505	4.68	5.0305	T	F	4.74	49.74	16	316.54911234463	16.056404268277	0.6678639080696	92	3	2	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.63	23.67	30.15	25.679345572093	0.1871	0.3771	3.85	4.2271	T	F	4.63	50.63	16	298.07044767982	7.6542540307986	0.66269460060413	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.1	20.98	28.54	25.760775703918	0.1291	0.2491	3.99	4.2391	T	F	4.1	49.1	16	298.13245577327	7.6801233232335	0.63737085926331	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.23	22.71	29.47	25.901693747024	0.1282	0.2982	3.99	4.2882	T	F	4.23	52.23	16	298.2397329187	7.7249142252545	0.6436433237595	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.56	21.75	28.655	26.603506089954	0.1321	0.4121	3.99	4.4021	T	F	3.56	50.56	16	298.77343248633	7.9484208306667	0.61093699446104	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	29.39	18.52	23.955	25.95949127864	0.0007	0.1407	4.06	4.2007	T	F	-2.61	44.39	16	298.28372153409	7.7432936677244	0.30349565392266	92	2	2	1	2	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-12-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.64	16.58	25.61	26.757637949666	0.001	0.131	4.31	4.441	T	F	2.64	48.64	16	298.89051609873	7.9976042163585	0.56476132124967	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.64	16.7	25.67	30.52989884151	0.0007	0.1907	2.96	3.1507	F	F	2.64	44.64	16	301.74180653183	9.2121468296714	0.56476132124967	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2019-12-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.47	15.29	25.38	29.10402485951	0.001	0.171	4.25	4.421	T	F	3.47	48.47	16	300.66725982573	8.7506274044088	0.60647720536094	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.43	18.17	26.3	29.346990552421	0.0064	0.1764	4.32	4.4964	T	F	2.43	48.43	16	300.85063532741	8.8290607526432	0.55407173897139	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.43	18.17	26.3	29.881065908153	0.0064	0.1564	4.27	4.4264	T	F	2.43	44.43	16	301.2533248637	9.0017704553024	0.55407173897139	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	33.09	17.97	25.53	30.962989507493	0.0183	0.2383	4.23	4.4683	T	F	1.09	46.09	16	302.06741631251	9.35291024184	0.48526340407687	92	2	2	1	2	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-12-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	31.57	16.56	24.065	31.165481248662	0.0033	0.1833	4.43	4.6133	T	F	-0.43	46.57	16	302.21953247389	9.4188171722945	0.40785101555503	92	2	2	1	2	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-12-12 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	77	157	31.59	16.56	24.075	17.212646237065	0.0033	0.2033	4.67	4.8733	T	F	-0.41	49.59	16	291.5526556143	5.0183927205658	0.40885325764729	92	2	2	1	2	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-12-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.27	21.8	28.035	18.301049188309	0.044	0.204	5.18	5.384	T	F	2.27	61.27	16	292.39839659029	5.3511974385815	0.54590040637249	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.73	24.19	29.96	17.460277181454	0.1452	0.2352	5.23	5.4652	T	F	3.73	62.73	16	291.74528217736	5.0939534931984	0.61932085858756	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.72	24.19	29.955	17.06680821403	0.1452	0.2652	5.25	5.5152	T	F	3.72	63.72	16	291.43915478231	4.9739361607288	0.61882919481108	92	3	2	1	2	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-12-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	31.6	18.1	24.85	17.830046791792	0.041	0.251	5.49	5.741	T	F	-0.4	50.6	16	292.03269223156	5.2069565672216	0.40935460267071	92	2	2	1	2	2	2	10	WET	L
2019-12-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	33.98	18.31	26.145	18.285568111759	0.2518	0.4018	5.6	6.0018	T	F	1.98	55.98	16	292.38638344008	5.3464511293445	0.53104261189226	92	3	2	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2019-12-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.42	21.91	28.665	14.98484606835	0.2531	0.3331	4.85	5.1831	T	F	3.42	55.42	16	289.81424085488	4.3428217876262	0.60399345556681	92	3	2	1	2	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-12-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.68	19.98	27.33	15.05281493719	0.0253	0.1153	5.42	5.5353	T	F	2.68	60.68	16	289.86742447492	4.3633206969408	0.56679232313996	92	3	2	1	2	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-12-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.88	20.35	27.615	15.02299780363	0.0022	0.0322	5.31	5.3422	T	F	2.88	62.88	16	289.84409458443	4.3543271963371	0.57691985026181	92	3	2	1	1	3	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	34.88	20.35	27.615	14.560772624134	0.0022	0.0322	5.49	5.5222	T	F	2.88	61.88	16	289.48220855121	4.2150846174462	0.57691985026181	92	3	2	1	1	3	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	37.95	27.18	32.565	16.400036333133	0.8008	1.1908	5.19	6.3808	T	T	5.95	64.95	16	290.91969276145	4.7710935313116	0.72245874826195	92	4	2	1	4	3	2	42	WET	H
2019-12-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	37.94	27.64	32.79	15.784820187294	1.1948	1.4348	5.57	7.0048	T	T	5.94	58.94	16	290.43961528952	4.584537102612	0.72202604600995	92	4	2	1	4	3	2	42	WET	H
2019-12-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	77	157	37.94	27.64	32.79	16.049294347861	1.1948	1.4348	5.87	7.3048	T	T	5.94	49.94	16	290.6460868626	4.6646645991119	0.72202604600995	92	4	2	1	4	3	2	42	WET	H
2019-12-09 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	36.39	28.34	32.365	20.119583218735	1.546	2.296	5.59	7.886	T	T	4.39	57.39	16	293.80627778951	5.9112598561728	0.65131012721107	92	3	2	1	5	2	2	30	WET	L
2019-12-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	35.84	26.57	31.205	16.966316802459	0.4878	0.8478	5.3	6.1478	T	F	3.84	52.84	16	291.36092122362	4.9433216933362	0.62471628815653	92	3	2	1	3	3	2	27	WET	L
2019-12-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	29.76	26.57	28.165	16.560157076052	0.4123	0.7723	5.35	6.1223	T	F	-2.24	46.76	16	291.04451831977	4.8197429394993	0.32038284615163	92	2	2	1	3	3	2	22.5	WET	L
2019-12-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	77	157	26.86	23.74	25.3	15.314161830964	0.3444	0.6244	5.9	6.5244	T	T	-5.14	50.86	16	290.07183514762	4.4422070260553	0.20020505533018	92	1	2	1	3	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-12-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	77	157	24	23.35	23.675	15.069400681425	0.1232	0.2332	5.21	5.4432	T	F	-8	45	16	289.88040093335	4.3683239113567	0.11309427912943	92	1	2	1	2	3	2	12	WET	L