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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 10, 2019

[ Monday, December 9, 2019 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 11, 2019 ]

DAY 71 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/11/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.655
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 22

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 14 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 296.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-11 04:00:12OBSERVATION20207115137.7900630.1400633.9650614.4553516666670.350000000000020.520000000000022.793.31FF5.7900621.7900622296.35384205941 4.28389900473660.655387965007490 32133227DRYL
2019-12-11 00:00:12FORECAST20207215233.833.833.812.990160.00860.17862.792.9686FF1.817.822295.229521016853.83507871473230.500350737076929032123218DRYL
2019-12-10 12:00:11FORECAST20207115139.2431.3635.312.8484640.41730.58732.793.3773FF7.2423.2422295.120567933173.79184599274890.707094652004169042133231.5DRYL
2019-12-10 08:00:11FORECAST20207115139.2931.3735.3312.7968040.30750.47752.793.2675FF7.2923.2922295.08083569943.77609161860140.708812031219769042123221DRYL
2019-12-10 04:00:11FORECAST20207115137.0831.6434.3613.0175720833330.34570.51572.793.3057FF5.0821.0822295.250594227333.84344589300130.628883350925449032133227DRYL
2019-12-10 00:00:12FORECAST20207115138.8931.535.19512.7497360.37440.54442.793.3344FF6.898.8922295.044630680483.76174114939360.694943639796369032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 20:00:11FORECAST20207115138.6329.8434.23512.7701266666670.24990.42992.793.2199FF6.6318.6322295.060315848423.76795760769090.685775036474829032123218DRYL
2019-12-09 16:00:10FORECAST20207115138.8131.6935.2512.7163346666670.23180.41182.793.2018FF6.8118.8122295.018935526733.75155951716170.69213516955169032123218DRYL
2019-12-09 12:00:11FORECAST20207115138.8531.6235.23512.2419920.24280.42282.793.2128FF6.8518.8522294.65379529893.60714940481880.693540824394899032123218DRYL
2019-12-09 08:00:11FORECAST20207115138.9231.535.2112.3637346666670.24880.43882.793.2288FF6.9219.9222294.747552526153.64418053308280.695993877962769032123218DRYL
2019-12-09 04:00:12FORECAST20207115138.431.4434.9212.6763820.32430.50432.793.2943FF6.415.422294.988197665353.73938307909750.67756750464459032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 00:00:13FORECAST20207115135.6731.8633.76514.4250706666670.26310.27312.793.0631FF3.6713.6722296.330648124664.27459053989740.574518225003389032123218DRYL
2019-12-08 20:00:11FORECAST20207115138.4331.1834.80514.4409240.39170.42172.793.2117FF6.4324.4322296.3427913144.27946372731330.678643082455359032123218DRYL
2019-12-08 16:00:11FORECAST20207115139.2530.7935.0214.5494920.40490.42492.793.2149FF7.2525.2522296.425938085194.31284681476290.707438503317479042123221DRYL
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20207115138.8231.134.9614.728089995680.31480.33482.793.1248FF6.8223.8222296.562667434514.36780165533430.692486848546639032123218DRYL
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20207115138.5431.2234.8814.7080776313640.27210.29212.793.0821FF6.5422.5422296.54734964514.36164143995540.682574021033759032123218DRYL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20207115138.9231.0534.98514.2449095773320.25870.27872.793.0687FF6.9217.9222296.192615644734.21923702733250.695993877962769032123218DRYL
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20207115138.5731.0734.8211.7213479759190.2140.2442.272.514FF6.5717.5722294.252506374233.44903601999860.683642558449269032123218DRYL
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20207115138.9328.8633.89511.4823452737170.23190.26192.432.6919FF6.9326.9322294.068116079683.37659164281830.696343599138789032123218DRYL
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20207115139.4829.0334.25511.4296886999050.24790.26792.432.6979FF7.4827.4822294.027476547123.36064252615230.715294853666669042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20207115140.1429.9835.0611.1334419219880.23960.25962.432.6896FF8.1427.1422293.79873650813.27099116966640.737263419301489042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20207115135.3130.6332.9711.3021803276490.1380.1882.612.798FF3.3122.3122293.929045029683.32203907045910.560362050252879032123218DRYL
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20207115141.8928.8235.35511.1592574174930.11760.16762.812.9776FF9.8926.8922293.818676187363.27879824164180.791024756730129042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20207115141.928.3735.13511.0620034469320.11780.15782.943.0978FF9.918.922293.743551193933.24939217582120.791312130192299042123221DRYL
2019-12-06 20:00:11FORECAST20207115142.8731.9237.39511.1129919820120.01770.06772.812.8777FF10.8721.8722293.782940212293.2648074590310.818068897496799042113210.5DRYL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20207115142.631.637.111.0047224536880.02950.07952.862.9395FF10.632.622293.699295120453.23207922764440.810845206786779042113210.5DRYL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20207115142.6131.6237.11510.66677149370.02950.05952.942.9995FF10.6129.6122293.438058516923.13003671775480.811115853693059042113210.5DRYL
2019-12-06 08:00:11FORECAST20207115143.3131.4337.3710.490025051640.00590.05593.133.1859FF11.3126.3122293.301343916323.0767384453620.829466284917729042113210.5DRYL
2019-12-06 04:00:12FORECAST20207115142.6829.9636.3211.2868963254030.07770.13773.133.2677FF10.6822.6822293.917244233013.31741346390610.813003708984149042123221DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20207115142.729.9836.3411.6629703529320.07770.12773.233.3577FF10.723.722294.207478439943.4313330986560.813540949556369042123221DRYL
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20207115140.930.9835.9411.7343502311120.01990.10993.493.5999FF8.925.922294.262534388233.45297963840620.761442062273879042123221DRYL
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20207115141.2230.6535.93511.9725108837820.04950.13953.343.4795FF9.2228.2222294.446157665533.52525982733830.771246509661719042123221DRYL
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20207115141.2330.6735.9511.2554436159760.04950.10953.293.3995FF9.2330.2322293.892958116453.3078956192120.771549215534819042123221DRYL
2019-12-05 08:00:11FORECAST20207115143.0531.9137.488.22117146856430.1370.1772.93.077FF11.0541.0522291.540908220762.39680779658390.822787723570389042124228DRYL
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20207115142.4231.9537.1858.62463390829080.13750.24752.943.1875FF10.4240.4222291.85470254792.51713996388880.805932900803249042123221DRYL
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20207115142.4431.9637.28.60022038572960.13750.29752.83.0975FF10.4441.4422291.835723984292.50985154269390.806482511287559042123221DRYL
2019-12-04 20:00:11FORECAST20207115144.2933.9339.119.33079333333330.25390.68393.44.0839TF12.2959.2922292.40314714252.72835333600290.853172577580339052133236WETM
2019-12-04 16:00:12FORECAST20207115143.7334.4639.0958.90437271773490.2050.5053.283.785TF11.7359.7322292.072081688592.60071867579990.839910278316169042133231.5DRYL
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20207115143.5335.0539.298.5492719214540.22430.51433.263.7743TF11.5353.5322291.796113919122.49464432351810.834990083003439042134242DRYM
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20207115143.9135.4439.6758.6579560.37770.60773.273.8777TF11.9152.9122291.880604548192.52708943143160.844255793814799042133231.5DRYL
2019-12-04 04:00:12FORECAST20207115144.434.639.58.55944308333330.22520.71523.334.0452TF12.449.422291.80402193472.49767991723780.855688715826879052134248WETM
2019-12-04 00:00:13FORECAST20207115144.4234.6139.5157.5223280.22520.71523.283.9952TF12.4245.4222290.996618781992.18897201336910.856143063043119052134248DRYM
2019-12-03 20:00:11FORECAST20207115145.9433.8639.98.6643520.00140.57144.24.7714TF13.9462.9422291.885576049942.52899937461950.887881262382339052133236WETM
2019-12-03 16:00:11FORECAST20207115145.5833.839.699.08222399487940.00110.51114.234.7411TF13.5861.5822292.210205878062.65391854337430.880857772012859052133236WETM
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20207115142.3133.8138.068.588260913647300.514.244.75TF10.3159.3122291.826426510482.50628149236930.802893115329399042133231.5WETM
2019-12-03 08:00:12FORECAST20207115133.8532.633.2259.271689307673500.574.264.83TF1.8542.8522292.357281221462.71064587832150.502345540990869032133227WETM
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20207115133.9933.6233.8059.023404873801600.294.634.92TF1.9948.9922292.164532237582.63631886414450.50793052078559032123218WETM