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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 9, 2019

[ Sunday, December 8, 2019 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 10, 2019 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2019 08:00:11 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.816
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 31

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 297.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.36 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 31.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-08 20:00:11FORECAST20207015043.2828.8736.07514.6491493333330.0060.5462.272.816FF11.2831.2823297.645378592584.36025159937930.816327174709528842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 16:00:11FORECAST20207015042.728.1435.4214.7274866666670.00430.54432.272.8143FF10.730.723297.705116360934.3844481318040.801468877006958842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20207015042.0829.4935.78514.5439363398040.00090.54092.272.8109FF10.0830.0823297.565127523524.32776827164780.784810884935188842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20207015041.2528.0434.64514.6143767869710.00320.54322.272.8132FF9.2529.2523297.618858252364.34951413340810.761290155935548842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20207015040.9728.5634.76514.2747814160940.00240.54242.272.8124FF8.9723.9723297.359732333344.24474518100650.753049750076528842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20207015041.1127.334.20511.619267833370.00170.03172.272.3017FF9.1124.1123295.325734926033.43146881219250.757188841927988842113210.5DRYL
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20207015041.328.6334.96511.5690129796990.0030.1932.272.463FF9.333.323295.287109664323.41618040444430.762745686984358842123221DRYL
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20207015041.3728.7835.07511.5709657343080.00430.18432.272.4543FF9.3733.3723295.288610619543.416774395210.764775228297868842123221DRYL
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20207015040.3627.9534.15511.323856142130.00240.18242.272.4524FF8.3632.3623295.09861442983.34165425754480.734583825051718842123221DRYL
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20207015040.3628.4734.41511.3673509757820.00120.39122.272.6612FF8.3632.3623295.132065133573.35486976858080.734583825051718842123221DRYL
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20207015040.3628.8734.61511.3888574174930.00090.59092.272.8609FF8.3630.3623295.148603792643.36140536556670.734583825051718842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20207015041.629.9135.75511.2897447802650.00080.75082.232.9808FF9.621.623295.072377715413.33129183611290.771375856200478842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 20:00:11FORECAST2020701504330.6636.8311.4709493153450.00040.57042.292.8604FF112423295.211724940813.38635873409160.80924251096018842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20207015043.5228.5636.0411.3467717870220.00120.62122.292.9112FF11.5234.5223295.1162386953.34861661111630.822267726893498842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20207015042.2329.9636.09511.0094768270330.00020.68022.292.9702FF10.2332.2323294.85672385483.24621826857430.788913605398748842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 08:00:11FORECAST20207015038.2528.2633.25510.9059839772780.00150.80152.383.1815FF6.2528.2523294.777051840393.21483380424040.665771514996778832133227DRYL
2019-12-06 04:00:12FORECAST20207015043.8629.5136.68511.3575952536940.00170.78172.413.1917FF11.8624.8623295.124562592253.35190533134640.830473885807518842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20207015043.8629.336.5811.7278299656750.00060.87062.413.2806FF11.8625.8623295.409157616483.46450837082930.830473885807518842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20207015042.4327.9235.17512.0398275644460.00171.17172.413.5817TF10.4330.4323295.648778755033.55956031584950.794312104464898842143242DRYM
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20207015042.4629.235.8312.0280026940170.00161.03162.43.4316TF10.4632.4623295.639700451623.55595511349040.795114766386428842143242DRYM
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20207015042.4829.235.8411.3065291444690.00160.93162.423.3516TF10.4834.4823295.085287673743.33639040518710.795648840216448842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-05 08:00:11FORECAST20207015041.4631.4936.4758.89637238615890.00690.53692.42.9369FF9.4643.4623293.225831322052.6086461886820.767370515590338842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20207015041.6531.7936.729.211582250.01150.62152.433.0515FF9.6542.6523293.46966590822.70331996539340.772796909657338842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20207015041.6631.7936.7259.18802133333330.01150.60152.362.9615FF9.6643.6623293.451446812412.69623815360990.773080522811418842133231.5DRYL
2019-12-04 20:00:11FORECAST20207015044.5131.5938.0510.2259053333330.00111.31112.523.8311TF12.5159.5123294.252984827513.00900316689690.845475311735818842143242DRYM
2019-12-04 16:00:12FORECAST20207015045.2833.5239.49.82075005106820.00211.07212.513.5821TF13.2861.2823293.940342537852.88671463398960.862078620213338852143248DRYM
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20207015044.532.1138.3059.48008125478740.00261.05262.53.5526TF12.554.523293.677212801962.78408384004210.84525136102878842143242DRYM
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20207015045.3931.3838.3859.59199066666670.00071.02072.483.5007TF13.3954.3923293.763675811542.817778436590.86434753027078852143248DRYM
2019-12-04 04:00:12FORECAST20207015044.2129.8537.039.464613750.00071.30072.523.8207TF12.2150.2123293.665260425932.77942826172460.83866378979058842143242DRYM
2019-12-04 00:00:13FORECAST20207015044.2429.8637.058.43001333333330.00071.23072.543.7707TF12.2446.2423292.864715089722.46885345306920.839353601020568842144256DRYH
2019-12-03 20:00:11FORECAST20207015043.8930.5237.2059.38868533333330.00051.92052.854.7705TF11.8961.8923293.606580610012.75657979714340.831186128721988842153252.5WETM
2019-12-03 16:00:11FORECAST20207015042.7729.5836.1759.62369732821270.00091.78092.964.7409TF10.7760.7723293.788168419912.82732841148320.803299574415678842153252.5WETM
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20207015042.829.636.28.87225424698060.00091.78092.974.7509TF10.861.823293.207166388382.60140852723440.804081025424868842153252.5WETM
2019-12-03 08:00:12FORECAST20207015042.4331.4636.9459.33182264100680.03331.49333.344.8333TF10.4354.4323293.562627960592.73947437815610.794312104464898842143242WETM
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20207015042.6632.5137.5859.0643502071350.01541.42543.494.9154TF10.6659.6623293.355796991792.65907967922670.80041817485078842143242WETM
2019-12-03 00:00:13FORECAST20207015042.6932.5237.6055.76704454352190.01541.42543.324.7454TF10.6953.6923290.794480925541.67702472450790.801206514116958842144256WETM
2019-12-02 20:00:11FORECAST20207015045.6834.4540.0656.30590266666670.00870.87873.073.9487TF13.6868.6823291.214528611591.83637047254390.870206492527658852134248DRYM
2019-12-02 16:00:12FORECAST20207015046.2233.4239.826.188260.00890.57893.053.6289TF14.2275.2223291.122873504861.80154403319520.880645357968918852134248DRYM
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20207015041.2733.4337.355.61849915332860.00840.57843.33.8784TF9.2770.2723290.678586525861.63317739228630.761872952970148842134242DRYM
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20207015033.7531.5432.6456.504996918454400.73.243.94TF1.7555.7523291.36958006231.89535822043660.502002582391698832134236DRYL
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST2020701503231.0431.527.63180935867700.633.163.79TF04723292.245647584112.2303630682650.436607837007478822134230DRYL