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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 8, 2019

[ Saturday, December 7, 2019 | Index | Today | Monday, December 9, 2019 ]

DAY 69 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2019 12:00:11 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.733
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 298.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 36.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20206914939.3229.5534.43514.8460243398040.01510.58512.222.8051FF7.3238.3224298.933720275424.43797728719710.733186202958238843133236DRYL
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20206914938.6528.9833.81514.8234282664340.01680.58682.222.8068FF6.6537.6524298.916560904464.43096819821630.71262425219498843133236DRYL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20206914933.6829.0531.36514.4796722040240.02250.59252.222.8125FF1.6832.6824298.655392383494.32443218367720.542038083590398833133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20206914938.3628.133.2311.8576941984140.02530.07532.222.2953FF6.3633.3624296.655824930463.51765405420360.703497899481588843113212DRYL
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20206914938.6829.0833.8811.7815025722960.03140.24142.222.4614FF6.6841.6824296.597520488673.49436445057390.713560730384478843123224DRYL
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20206914939.1929.2334.2111.7805835492450.02490.23492.222.4549FF7.1942.1924296.596817151883.49408358489790.729255319019548843123224DRYL
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20206914938.9928.7433.86511.5038080656160.02280.23282.222.4528FF6.9941.9924296.384923610263.40955527475480.723151954429458843123224DRYL
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20206914938.9829.6134.29511.551812668980.0530.4432.222.663FF6.9841.9824296.421685612583.42420778321960.722845028408048843123224DRYL
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20206914939.629.8434.7211.5732893998140.05030.64032.222.8603FF7.639.624296.438131076283.4307642800860.741553752399628843133236DRYL
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20206914938.7129.7834.24511.5197953047350.03620.75622.222.9762FF6.7129.7124296.397167161473.41443469460340.714495759445428843133236DRYL
2019-12-06 20:00:11FORECAST20206914934.1229.8731.99511.8107026486790.04950.63952.222.8595FF2.1231.1224296.619866720733.50328904552920.557997663316538833133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20206914938.528.7233.6111.7148571515520.04920.68922.222.9092FF6.540.524296.546511877933.47400002544110.707920294276198843133236DRYL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST2020691493829.3533.67511.3104168270330.02720.74722.222.9672FF64024296.236778877723.35056144860460.691987690873638833133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 08:00:11FORECAST20206914938.2328.533.36511.113960871920.0540.9642.223.184FF6.2340.2324296.086211932513.2906905741330.699364155076128843133236DRYL
2019-12-06 04:00:12FORECAST20206914937.6228.6833.1511.7019176755030.06110.97112.223.1911FF5.6230.6224296.536607350313.47004696698620.679630083144098833133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20206914937.8528.633.22512.0842599593960.04791.05792.223.2779TF5.8531.8524296.829134161983.58696042073590.687134602780918833143242DRYM
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20206914937.6729.5133.5912.3101007236630.08771.35772.223.5777TF5.6737.6724297.001789585683.65612194490790.68126789630058833143242DRYM
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20206914937.2727.432.33512.3592391693520.08981.20982.223.4298TF5.2740.2724297.039342844833.67118028092630.66806881727248833143242DRYM
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20206914938.8930.1134.511.6378837012520.06411.13412.223.3541TF6.8941.8924296.487587724853.45048806480650.720075235529118843143248DRYM
2019-12-05 08:00:11FORECAST20206914939.9335.0937.519.36824365902910.02840.69842.232.9284FF7.9351.9324294.744961422792.76124261587980.751238307215218843133236DRYL
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20206914940.9834.2437.619.72993158333330.10290.81292.233.0429FF8.9850.9824295.023338224872.87055689641460.780725075404778843133236DRYL
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20206914940.9837.2639.129.70675333333330.14990.88992.062.9499FF8.9851.9824295.005506516472.86354568373040.780725075404778843133236DRYL
2019-12-04 20:00:11FORECAST20206914942.334.7738.53510.9013120.42561.66562.163.8256TF10.365.324295.923149780883.22595058378410.814784698747998843153260DRYH
2019-12-04 16:00:12FORECAST20206914942.8435.0738.95510.6171887177350.29791.41792.163.5779TF10.8465.8424295.705142544583.13955730320050.827717643907348843143248DRYM
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20206914941.1933.7737.4810.2662425881210.2871.3672.183.547TF9.1960.1924295.435644993283.03301400067890.786372107689198843143248DRYM
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20206914938.9334.3536.6410.2629693333330.22971.25972.243.4997TF6.9358.9324295.433130273863.03202115605130.721307908703768843143248DRYM
2019-12-04 04:00:12FORECAST20206914938.5733.0235.79510.0377390833330.49261.53262.293.8226TF6.5755.5724295.260044059322.9637432840010.710119929193228843153260DRYH
2019-12-04 00:00:13FORECAST20206914938.633.0535.8259.00548933333330.49261.50262.273.7726TF6.651.624294.465506862342.65180598108340.711060248049158843153260DRYH
2019-12-03 20:00:11FORECAST20206914941.2831.7136.49510.034080.57082.22082.554.7708TF9.2868.2824295.257231288812.96263467933050.788766138345858843153260WETM
2019-12-03 16:00:11FORECAST20206914941.3331.6736.510.1663733282130.51242.15242.594.7424TF9.3368.3324295.35890975723.00272894240560.7900893482838843153260WETM
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20206914941.3531.6936.529.4170075803140.51242.18242.574.7524TF9.3569.3524294.782507989712.77596911228310.790617267892568843153260WETM
2019-12-03 08:00:11FORECAST20206914938.4733.435.9359.81481685903280.53951.799534.7995TF6.4762.4724295.088633998552.8962408998780.706975223699328843153260WETM
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20206914941.3134.0737.699.6168662071350.27021.92022.984.9002TF9.3167.3124294.936343779862.83636335775250.789560648725048843153260WETM
2019-12-03 00:00:13FORECAST20206914941.3334.0937.716.32191121018860.27021.94022.794.7302TF9.3361.3324292.390144738651.84846453377190.7900893482838843154280WETM
2019-12-02 20:00:11FORECAST20206914939.8736.6138.247.04177066666670.32271.22272.723.9427TF7.8772.8724292.948241721132.06287433540340.749491948754628843144264DRYH
2019-12-02 16:00:12FORECAST20206914943.5235.2339.3756.7568480.2070.9172.73.617TF11.5278.5224292.727467165941.97791500106520.843164208842438843134248DRYM
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20206914943.5335.2539.395.91446448666190.2070.9172.953.867TF11.5378.5324292.073804440871.72746014384980.843384363291168843134248DRYM
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20206914942.3833.8638.126.54107691845440.06240.91243.033.9424TF10.3872.3824292.560168910541.91365856811980.816737755374188843134248DRYM
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST20206914941.132.9377.6318093586770.21790.80792.983.7879TF9.165.124293.404930091532.23921049135450.783962373972238843134248DRYM
2019-12-02 00:00:13FORECAST20206914941.1232.9137.0156.90150268566790.21790.80792.313.1179FF9.1262.1224292.839573946882.02103310606420.784499224297048843134248DRYM
2019-12-01 20:00:11FORECAST20206914939.6733.4636.5657.0653794323060.54732.41732.454.8673TF7.6780.6724292.966527990712.06991968121960.743624224539838843154280WETM
2019-12-01 16:00:11FORECAST20206914940.9433.6237.287.70386849548170.31731.83732.54.3373TF8.9479.9424293.460656787362.26078230848750.779639822759438843154280WETM
2019-12-01 12:00:12FORECAST20206914937.793335.3957.93535506181420.25811.77812.494.2681TF5.7974.7924293.639607163222.33013454305180.685184193729098833154270WETM
2019-12-01 08:00:11FORECAST20206914938.3332.9735.659.8763649614390.39612.07612.634.7061TF6.3367.3324295.135969459442.91487054762950.702546270099538843153260WETM
2019-12-01 04:00:11FORECAST20206914939.1736.9638.0659.22515574023870.24691.71692.784.4969TF7.1773.1724294.634761726542.71805156341540.728648014547698843153260WETM