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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 13, 2019

[ Tuesday, November 12, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 14, 2019 ]

DAY 44 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/14/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.919
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 85 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 271

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 319.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 48.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-14 04:00:11OBSERVATION20204412449.9800233.2299441.604985.710290416666700.250.710.96FF17.98002270.9800249319.64566922788 1.8252696017210.9190185545130485 55224248DRYM
2019-11-14 00:00:14FORECAST20204512539.6739.6739.674.958070666666700.250.70.95FF7.67260.6749319.113517671281.58218737130280.584872364408038534224236DRYL
2019-11-13 12:00:11FORECAST20204412447.5438.0842.815.1286680.00760.25760.710.9676FF15.54268.5449319.234294487411.63724671064010.868210729515058555224248DRYM
2019-11-13 08:00:13FORECAST20204412448.9234.0541.4854.9515480.00820.25820.710.9682FF16.92269.9249319.108898817531.58008302972210.899126634251968555224248DRYM
2019-11-13 04:00:13FORECAST20204412449.2835.3942.3354.60929491666670.0050.2550.710.965FF17.28270.2849318.866433973161.46974943320810.9062458098548555224248DRYM
2019-11-13 00:00:12FORECAST20204412449.3834.8242.13.5804160.00860.00860.710.7186FF17.38257.3849318.136267244281.13906018142170.908156125435288555214224DRYL
2019-11-12 20:00:14FORECAST20204412450.1138.1644.1354.55373866666670.00790.12790.710.8379FF18.11265.1149318.827055966131.45185509273250.921238794096668555224248DRYM
2019-11-12 16:00:10FORECAST20204412449.6837.0843.384.59851066666670.00350.12350.710.8335FF17.68264.6849318.858790582431.46627554965380.913714508866028555224248DRYM
2019-11-12 12:00:11FORECAST20204412449.7437.9843.864.0206840.00140.12140.710.8314FF17.74264.7449318.448946768451.28038258508870.914795448032788555224248DRYM
2019-11-12 08:00:11FORECAST20204412450.6638.344.483.74494533333330.00250.36250.711.0725FF18.66265.6649318.253157342851.19184067640970.930127217306588555224248DRYM
2019-11-12 04:00:11FORECAST20204412450.9638.8744.9153.41871083333330.00290.38290.711.0929FF18.96265.9649318.021335970751.08722298651430.934639790434678555224248DRYM
2019-11-12 00:00:12FORECAST20204412450.9138.7244.8151.37561733333330.00240.44240.711.1524FF18.91251.9149316.565142382040.435472496989870.933903753291918555224248DRYM
2019-11-11 20:00:11FORECAST20204412450.3238.9344.6252.3427080.00390.38390.711.0939FF18.32267.3249317.255368136280.74323668897580.924728313660838555224248DRYM
2019-11-11 16:00:11FORECAST20204412450.8439.0944.9652.23736533333330.00220.37220.711.0822FF18.84269.8449317.180265900240.709648131342640.932862571140838555224248DRYM
2019-11-11 12:00:12FORECAST20204412450.7738.5944.681.08373466666670.00160.41160.711.1216FF18.77270.7749316.356488453560.342846493562060.93180879503848555224248DRYM
2019-11-11 08:00:11FORECAST20204412451.8739.5345.70.983202666666670.00190.40190.711.1119FF19.87271.8749316.284586777810.310971849145510.946957132600318555224248DRYM
2019-11-11 04:00:11FORECAST20204412451.3939.745.5451.00170666666670.00150.47150.711.1815FF19.39264.3949316.297822436250.316837637386540.940710725132338555224248DRYM
2019-11-11 00:00:13FORECAST20204412451.0439.545.270.584026666666670.00190.49190.581.0719FF19.04262.0449315.998910127460.184551790152040.935804249776938555234272DRYH
2019-11-10 20:00:11FORECAST20204412450.7439.5345.1351.6075880.0020.3420.590.932FF18.74273.7449316.730857600660.509172725908530.931353300875698555224248DRYM
2019-11-10 16:00:11FORECAST20204412451.1139.2545.181.5701960.00280.31280.590.9028FF19.11275.1149316.7041521020.497287592813960.936809910942788555224248DRYM
2019-11-10 12:00:12FORECAST20204412450.7339.6645.1950.6524520.00270.26270.590.8527FF18.73272.7349316.047900377220.206206084696920.931200950946928555224248DRYM
2019-11-10 08:00:11FORECAST20204412445.8339.8742.850.448490666666670.0080.2580.580.838FF13.83270.8349315.901845745520.141679029399640.821615004066748545224244DRYM
2019-11-10 04:00:13FORECAST20204412450.9836.7843.880.919604333333330.0070.3470.590.937FF18.98271.9849316.239091015080.290814838466860.934932424917898555224248DRYM
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204412451.0136.8443.9251.04160666666670.00680.37680.070.4468FF19.01268.0149316.326360244410.329487645672980.93536947523628555224248DRYM
2019-11-09 20:00:11FORECAST20204412451.8838.345.091.757340.02480.39480.150.5448FF19.88277.8849316.837785592460.556791714133050.947081508472428555224248DRYM
2019-11-09 16:00:11FORECAST20204412451.7639.3345.5451.60143066666670.00510.34510.150.4951FF19.76279.7649316.726460185860.507215466286410.945573699374588555224248DRYM
2019-11-09 12:00:12FORECAST20204412451.7939.3445.5650.7124960.00510.35510.140.4951FF19.79280.7949316.090882859240.225213489673680.945953790327488555224248DRYM
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204412453.3942.1947.790.114880.00050.14050.30.4405FF21.39281.3949315.662787389970.0362633410153590.963367492563938555224248DRYM
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204412453.7141.2947.500.00070.12070.280.4007FF21.71285.7149315.5804199094300.966230347734178555225260DRYH
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204412453.7541.3147.5300.00070.12070.350.4707FF21.75262.7549315.5804199094300.966574935401648555225260DRYH
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204412450.2338.0944.160.83861200.290.390.68FF18.23273.2349316.181141624060.265153299539630.923247465506978555224248DRYM
2019-11-08 16:00:11FORECAST20204412450.3737.6644.0150.79843200.340.370.71FF18.37278.3749316.152388718990.252426184029680.925541573259388555224248DRYM
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST20204412450.4137.744.055000.340.420.76FF18.41278.4149315.5804199094300.926187353808518555225260DRYH
2019-11-08 08:00:11FORECAST20204412450.3340.145.21500.03240.53240.460.9924FF18.33271.3349315.5804199094300.924891503145028555235290DRYVH
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST20204412452.0740.2946.1800.0320.4020.530.932FF20.07276.0749315.5804199094300.949401123572068555225260DRYH
2019-11-08 00:00:13FORECAST20204412452.0940.3146.200.0320.3920.621.012FF20.09267.0949315.5804199094300.949640523309688555225260DRYH
2019-11-07 20:00:12FORECAST20204412452.0738.2145.1400.00220.40220.721.1222FF20.07276.0749315.5804199094300.949401123572068555225260DRYH
2019-11-07 16:00:11FORECAST20204412450.6336.4343.5300.00160.51160.851.3616FF18.63277.6349315.5804199094300.929663130424588555235290DRYVH
2019-11-07 12:00:12FORECAST20204412450.6536.4743.5600.00160.51160.841.3516FF18.65277.6549315.5804199094300.929972783334388555235290DRYVH
2019-11-07 08:00:11FORECAST20204412446.2837.1741.72500.00830.41830.61.0183FF14.28268.2849315.5804199094300.834778255616598545225255DRYH
2019-11-07 04:00:12FORECAST20204412446.8338.9742.900.11420.29420.220.5142FF14.83277.8349315.5804199094300.849991977195998555225260DRYH
2019-11-07 00:00:14FORECAST20204412446.8638.9942.92500.11420.29420.250.5442FF14.86267.8649315.5804199094300.850794125710078555225260DRYH
2019-11-06 20:00:11FORECAST20204412452.3239.6445.9800.00110.11110.250.3611FF20.32312.3249315.5804199094300.952329428100738555225260DRYH
2019-11-06 16:00:11FORECAST20204412456.241.8649.0300.00110.10110.260.3611FF24.2320.249315.5804199094300.982800793114948555225260DRYH
2019-11-06 12:00:12FORECAST20204412453.0742.1447.60500.00050.10050.290.3905FF21.07326.0749315.5804199094300.960309719376148555225260DRYH
2019-11-06 08:00:12FORECAST20204412443.3141.3542.33000.020.120.14FF11.31318.3149315.5804199094300.736370655817448545215227.5DRYL
2019-11-06 04:00:16FORECAST20204412443.3343.1343.23000.020.10.12FF11.33320.3349315.5804199094300.737120151315558545215227.5DRYL