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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 12, 2019

[ Monday, November 11, 2019 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 13, 2019 ]

DAY 43 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/13/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.853
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 254

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 48.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-13 04:00:13OBSERVATION20204312347.9400835.1541.545045.890736250.250.390.71.09FF15.94008253.9400850320.82804939408 1.88991342058250.8530368154011788 55224248DRYM
2019-11-13 00:00:12FORECAST20204412434.934.934.94.98414666666670.00170.14170.570.7117FF2.9239.950320.18929024661.59587038368490.323295964100858825224236DRYL
2019-11-12 12:00:11FORECAST20204312341.5434.8238.185.46049466666670.12120.26120.70.9612FF9.54247.5450320.525095886561.75022557662140.621451475618978835224240DRYM
2019-11-12 08:00:11FORECAST20204312342.0637.9239.995.1932840.36410.50410.71.2041FF10.06248.0650320.336773451221.66359984017580.644094223199128835234260DRYH
2019-11-12 04:00:11FORECAST20204312342.0233.8437.934.91783483333330.38320.52320.71.2232FF10.02248.0250320.142510921141.57440799183880.642369228220438835234260DRYH
2019-11-12 00:00:12FORECAST20204312344.4434.5439.492.84964933333330.4390.5790.71.279FF12.44234.4450318.679558512070.908124991460880.740421584029228845234266DRYH
2019-11-11 20:00:11FORECAST20204312342.837.9240.363.8319920.36880.51880.71.2188FF10.8249.850319.375387041481.22384392813980.675443149693858835234260DRYH
2019-11-11 16:00:11FORECAST20204312344.9938.4241.7053.77322533333330.35650.50650.71.2065FF12.99251.9950319.333809312211.20491841908670.760606375706538845234266DRYH
2019-11-11 12:00:12FORECAST20204312345.7439.9142.8252.62271066666670.40280.55280.71.2528FF13.74252.7450318.518562692250.835382031904310.78669364653438845234266DRYH
2019-11-11 08:00:11FORECAST20204312345.4638.8742.1652.57471333333330.37690.53690.71.2369FF13.46253.4650318.484500323470.820006289442850.77715338545598845234266DRYH
2019-11-11 04:00:11FORECAST20204312343.9340.8742.42.59611466666670.44750.60750.71.3075FF11.93245.9350318.499688765840.826861713333770.720950072343958845234266DRYH
2019-11-11 00:00:13FORECAST20204312344.0840.2242.152.0909680.46540.49540.71.1954FF12.08244.0850318.140967817410.665222583195230.726749920534148845234266DRYH
2019-11-10 20:00:11FORECAST20204312345.3741.2643.3153.1309840.32560.35560.71.0556FF13.37256.3750318.879015388810.998405095118110.774036101117818845224244DRYM
2019-11-10 16:00:11FORECAST20204312345.2341.6743.453.1186840.31020.33020.71.0302FF13.23257.2350318.870298079030.994455696694310.769138426878898845224244DRYM
2019-11-10 12:00:12FORECAST20204312345.3641.3243.342.17989333333330.26480.28480.70.9848FF13.36255.3650318.204149951240.69365110511770.773688223560568845224244DRYM
2019-11-10 08:00:11FORECAST20204312346.6341.4644.0451.89857866666670.24970.25970.70.9597FF14.63257.6350318.004224868730.603756037245640.815395554895978845224244DRYM
2019-11-10 04:00:13FORECAST20204312346.0341.4743.752.35274566666670.33580.35580.71.0558FF14.03254.0350318.3269220420.748942286417660.796319439732438845224244DRYM
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204312345.2941.143.1952.46895333333330.37310.41310.160.5731FF13.29250.2950318.40943074350.786138025398920.771244641861728845224244DRYM
2019-11-09 20:00:11FORECAST20204312345.9941.6443.8153.34644533333330.37090.40090.250.6509FF13.99258.9950319.031673924911.06762205639150.795007322467368845224244DRYM
2019-11-09 16:00:11FORECAST20204312346.5441.8444.193.15790.3350.3650.250.615FF14.54260.5450318.898090463961.00704827987610.812606999655598845224244DRYM
2019-11-09 12:00:12FORECAST20204312347.4641.8744.6652.2726280.34830.36830.250.6183FF15.46262.4650318.270023446420.7233093668450.83988608713068845224244DRYM
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204312346.443.5944.9951.9479080.14280.16280.410.5728FF14.4261.450318.03929263460.619511282437280.80821793068688845224244DRYM
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204312351.9441.8446.891.53757750.12150.14150.390.5315FF19.94264.9450317.747458705280.488561343187420.934844675746288855224248DRYM
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204312351.9841.4346.7050.472253333333330.12110.15110.450.6011FF19.98241.9850316.988360825720.149698810027810.935431813197698855224248DRYM
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204312343.8439.8941.8652.23222933333330.29160.36160.450.8116FF11.84255.8450318.241328411550.710387628359230.717441696597018845224244DRYM
2019-11-08 16:00:11FORECAST20204312345.5438.9542.2452.19248666666670.33950.40950.430.8395FF13.54260.5450318.213096457950.697677971142770.77990365346938845224244DRYM
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST20204312345.5938.9742.281.15764666666670.33950.41950.470.8895FF13.59260.5950317.476974199480.367526160925450.781612655656068845224244DRYM
2019-11-08 08:00:11FORECAST20204312346.2140.1443.1750.702710666666670.49080.62080.471.0908FF14.21254.2150317.152747602230.222866618702720.802161840969388845234266DRYH
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST20204312347.3940.8944.140.149110083333330.35260.56260.471.0326FF15.39257.3950316.757698438570.047231766810650.83790639024668845234266DRYH
2019-11-08 00:00:13FORECAST20204312347.4340.9244.17500.35260.60260.511.1126FF15.43248.4350316.6511985458600.839039584378318845235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-07 20:00:12FORECAST20204312346.1741.643.88500.39220.76220.491.2522FF14.17257.1750316.6511985458600.800872337024918845235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-07 16:00:11FORECAST20204312344.9838.9541.96500.50051.15050.341.4905FF12.98259.9850316.6511985458600.7602471807866788452452110DRYVH
2019-11-07 12:00:12FORECAST20204312345.0238.9741.99500.50051.19050.291.4805FF13.02260.0250316.6511985458600.7616821976778788452452110DRYVH
2019-11-07 08:00:11FORECAST20204312348.5739.8344.200.40830.85830.281.1383FF16.57254.5750316.6511985458600.869166227519118855235290DRYVH
2019-11-07 04:00:12FORECAST20204312351.140.9646.0300.17540.26540.260.5254FF19.1264.150316.6511985458600.921538792548628855225260DRYH
2019-11-07 00:00:14FORECAST20204312351.1240.9746.04500.17540.27540.280.5554FF19.12254.1250316.6511985458600.921877816263158855225260DRYH
2019-11-06 20:00:11FORECAST20204312352.2641.6246.9400.11240.19240.30.4924FF20.26293.2650316.6511985458600.939427765851068855225260DRYH
2019-11-06 16:00:11FORECAST20204312355.7444.0149.87500.10440.19440.30.4944FF23.74296.7450316.6511985458600.974651301759258855225260DRYH
2019-11-06 12:00:12FORECAST20204312356.3144.6650.48500.10430.19430.330.5243FF24.31306.3150316.6511985458600.978323507000618855225260DRYH
2019-11-06 08:00:12FORECAST20204312356.5543.8750.2100.02360.06360.210.2736FF24.55307.5550316.6511985458600.979729732589928855215230DRYL
2019-11-06 04:00:16FORECAST20204312356.5743.8850.22500.02360.06360.190.2536FF24.57309.5750316.6511985458600.979843352944468855215230DRYL
2019-11-06 00:00:13FORECAST20204312360.8645.1753.01500.00130.13130.240.3713FF28.86281.8650316.6511985458600.99461063662688855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 20:00:12FORECAST20204312360.8945.1953.0400.00130.13130.240.3713FF28.89309.8950316.6511985458600.994664392567068855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 16:00:11FORECAST20204312360.7142.8551.7800.00080.13080.240.3708FF28.71310.7150316.6511985458600.994334571776238855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 12:00:12FORECAST20204312356.6342.8749.75000.130.240.37FF24.63308.6350316.6511985458600.980180985648748855225260DRYH
2019-11-05 08:00:12FORECAST20204312343.6242.4743.04500.09330.44330.170.6133FF11.62290.6250316.6511985458600.708777595973768845225255DRYH
2019-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20204312343.4542.943.17500.0240.3740.170.544FF11.45285.4550316.6511985458600.701998905262748845225255DRYH